Design Optimization Under Uncertainty

This book introduces the fundamentals of probability, statistical, and reliability concepts, the classical methods of uncertainty quantification and analytical reliability analysis, and the state-of-the-art approaches of design optimization under uncertainty (e.g., reliability-based design optimization and robust design optimization). The topics include basic concepts of probability and distributions, uncertainty quantification using probabilistic methods, classical reliability analysis methods, time-variant reliability analysis methods, fundamentals of deterministic design optimization, reliability-based design optimization, robust design optimization, other methods of design optimization under uncertainty, and engineering applications of design optimization under uncertainty.

Uncertainties play a dominant role in the design and optimization of structures and infrastructures. In optimum design of structural systems due to variations of the material, manufacturing variations, variations of the external loads and modelling uncertainty, the parameters of a structure, a structural system and its environment are not given, fixed coefficients, but random variables with a certain probability distribution. The increasing necessity to solve complex problems in Structural Optimization, Structural Reliability and Probabilistic Mechanics, requires the development of new ideas, innovative methods and numerical tools for providing accurate numerical solutions in affordable computing times. This book presents the latest findings on structural optimization considering uncertainties. It contains selected contributions dealing with the use of probabilistic methods for the optimal design of different types of structures and various considerations of uncertainties. The first part is focused on reliability-based design optimization and the second part on robust design optimization. Comprising twenty-one, self-contained chapters by prominent authors in the field, it forms a complete collection of state-of-the-art theoretical advances and applications in the fields of structural optimization, structural reliability, and probabilistic computational mechanics. It is recommended to researchers, engineers, and students in civil, mechanical, naval and aerospace engineering and to professionals working on complicated costs-effective design problems.

In an expanding world with limited resources, optimization and uncertainty quantification have become a necessity when handling complex systems and processes. This book provides the foundational material necessary for those who wish to embark on advanced research at the limits of computability, collecting together lecture material from leading experts across the topics of optimization, uncertainty quantification and aerospace engineering. The aerospace sector in particular has stringent performance requirements on highly complex systems, for which solutions are expected to be optimal and reliable at the same time. The text covers a wide range of techniques and methods, from polynomial chaos expansions for uncertainty quantification to Bayesian and Imprecise Probability theories, and from Markov chains to surrogate models based on Gaussian processes. The book will serve as a valuable tool for practitioners, researchers and PhD students.

Spotlighting the field of Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO), this book illustrates and implements state-of-the-art methodologies within the complex process of aerospace system design under uncertainties. The book provides approaches to integrating a multitude of components and constraints with the ultimate goal of reducing design cycles. Insights on a vast assortment of problems are provided, including discipline modeling, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty propagation, reliability analysis, and global multidisciplinary optimization. The extensive range of topics covered include areas of current open research. This Work is destined to become a fundamental reference for aerospace systems engineers, researchers, as well as for practitioners and engineers working in areas of optimization and uncertainty. Part I is largely comprised of fundamentals. Part II presents methodologies for single discipline problems with a review of existing uncertainty propagation, reliability analysis, and optimization techniques. Part III is dedicated to the uncertainty-based MDO and related issues. Part IV deals with three MDO related issues: the multifidelity, the multi-objective optimization and the mixed continuous/discrete optimization and Part V is devoted to test cases for aerospace vehicle design.

This text presents a multi-disciplined view of optimization, providing students and researchers with a thorough examination of algorithms, methods, and tools from diverse areas of optimization without introducing excessive theoretical detail. This second edition includes additional topics, including global optimization and a real-world case study using important concepts from each chapter. Introduction to Applied Optimization is intended for advanced undergraduate and graduate students and will benefit scientists from diverse areas, including engineers.

Learn the science of collecting information to make effective decisions Everyday decisions are made without the benefit of accurate information. Optimal Learning develops the needed principles for gathering information to make decisions, especially when collecting information is time-consuming and expensive. Designed for readers with an elementary background in probability and statistics, the book presents effective and practical policies illustrated in a wide range of applications, from energy, homeland security, and transportation to engineering, health, and business. This book covers the fundamental dimensions of a learning problem and presents a simple method for testing and comparing policies for learning. Special attention is given to the knowledge gradient policy and its use with a wide range of belief models, including lookup table and parametric and for online and offline problems. Three sections develop ideas with increasing levels of sophistication: Fundamentals explores fundamental topics, including adaptive learning, ranking and selection, the knowledge gradient, and bandit problems Extensions and Applications features coverage of linear belief models, subset selection models, scalar function optimization, optimal bidding, and stopping problems Advanced Topics explores complex methods including simulation optimization, active learning in mathematical programming, and optimal continuous measurements Each chapter identifies a specific learning problem, presents the related, practical algorithms for implementation, and concludes with numerous exercises. A related website features additional applications and downloadable software, including MATLAB and the Optimal Learning Calculator, a spreadsheet-based package that provides an introduction to learning and a variety of policies for learning.

Probabilistic and Randomized Methods for Design under Uncertainty is a collection of contributions from the world’s leading experts in a fast-emerging branch of control engineering and operations research. The book will be bought by university researchers and lecturers along with graduate students in control engineering and operational research.