Distribution And Quantitative Assessment Of World Crude Oil Reserves And Resources

When the U.S. Department of the Interior released its 1989 estimates of how much undiscovered oil and gas remain in the United States, a controversy ensued. Some members of the petroleum industry charged that the estimates were too low. This book evaluates the scientific credibility of the statistical and geological methods underlying the estimates.

The petroleum industry is enduring difficult financial times because of the continuing depressed price of crude oil on the world market. This has caused major corporate restructuring and reductions in staff throughout the industry. Because oil exploration must now be done with fewer people under more difficult economic constraints, it is essential that the most effective and efficient procedures be used. Computing Risk for Oil Prospects describes how prospect risk assessment — predicting the distribution of financial gains or losses that may result from the drilling of an exploration well — can be done using objective procedures implemented on personal computers. The procedures include analyses of historical data, interpretation of geological and geophysical data, and financial calculations to yield a spectrum of the possible consequences of decisions. All aspects of petroleum risk assessment are covered, from evaluating regional resources, through delineating an individual prospect, to calculation of the financial consequences of alternative decisions and their possible results. The bottom lines are given both in terms of the probable volumes of oil that may be discovered and the expected monetary returns. Statistical procedures are linked with computer mapping and interpretation algorithms, which feed their results directly into routines for financial analysis. The programs in the included library of computer programs are tailored to fit seamlessly together, and are designed for ease and simplicity of operation. The two diskettes supplied are IBM compatible. Full information on loading is given in Appendix A - Software Installation. Risk I diskette contains data files and executables and Risk 2 diskette contains only executables. The authors contend that the explorationist who develops a prospect should be involved in every facet of its analysis, including risk and financial assessments. This book provides the tools necessary for these tasks.

The United States Government, cognizant of its responsibilities to future generations, has been sponsoring research for nine years into the causes, effects, and potential impacts of increased concentrations of carbon dioxide (C0 ) in the atmosphere. Agencies such as the National Science Foun 2 dation, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) cooperatively spent about $100 million from FY 1978 through FY 1984 directly on the study of CO • The DOE, as the 2 lead government agency for coordinating the government' s research ef forts, has been responsible for about 60% of these research efforts. William James succinctly defined our purpose when he stated science must be based upon " ... irreducible and stubborn facts." Scientific knowledge can and will reduce the present significant uncertainty sur rounding our understanding of the causes, effects, and potential impacts of increasing atmospheric CO2• We have come far during the past seven years in resolving some underlyinig doubts and in narrowing the ranges of disagreement. Basic concepts have become less murky. Yet, much more must be accomplished; more irreducible and stubborn facts are needed to reduce the uncertainties so that we can improve our knowledge base. Uncertainty can never be reduced to zero. However, with a much improved knowledge base, we will be able to learn, under stand, and be in a position to make decisions.