Do Tax Cuts Starve The Beast

The hypothesis that decreases in taxes reduce future government spending is often cited as a reason for cutting taxes. However, because taxes change for many reasons, examinations of the relationship between overall measures of taxation and subsequent spending are plagued by problems of reverse causation and omitted variable bias. To deal with these problems, this paper examines the behavior of government expenditures following legislated tax changes that narrative sources suggest are largely uncorrelated with other factors affecting spending. The results provide no support for the hypothesis that tax cuts restrain government spending; indeed, they suggest that tax cuts may actually increase spending. The results also indicate that the main effect of tax cuts on the government budget is to induce subsequent legislated tax increases. Examination of four episodes of major tax cuts reinforces these conclusions.

For thirty years prominent voices have advocated a policy of starving the beast cutting taxes to force government spending cuts. This paper analyzes the macroeconomic and welfare consequences of this policy using a two-country general equilibrium model. Under several strong assumptions the policy, if fully implemented, produces domestic output and welfare gains accompanied by losses elsewhere. But negative effects can easily arise in the presence of longer policy implementation lags, utility-enhancing government spending, and productive government capital. Overall, the analysis finds no support for the idea that starving the beast is a foolproof way towards higher output and welfare.

Since the Reagan Revolution of the early 1980s, Republicans have consistently championed tax cuts for individuals and businesses, regardless of whether the economy is booming or in recession or whether the federal budget is in surplus or deficit. In Starving the Beast, sociologist Monica Prasad uncovers the origins of the GOP’s relentless focus on tax cuts and shows how this is a uniquely American phenomenon. Drawing on never-before seen archival documents, Prasad traces the history of the 1981 tax cut—the famous “supply side” tax cut, which became the cornerstone for the next several decades of Republican domestic economic policy. She demonstrates that the main impetus behind this tax cut was not business group pressure, racial animus, or a belief that tax cuts would pay for themselves. Rather, the tax cut emerged because Republicans believed that following World War II, Democrats had created an extremely durable power structure based on offering government programs to Americans, through which they were able to unify an otherwise fractious coalition of farmers, workers, and African Americans and retain control of Congress for four decades. Republicans were reduced to lecturing about balanced budgets, an issue that did not win them many elections. The Republican party began to see tax cuts as an opportunity to alter these basic building blocks of American power. If Democratic power was built out of government programs, Republicans found a new power source in offering tax cuts. Once it became clear that the resulting deficits could be financed by foreign capital, this program reoriented the Republican Party, transforming it from the party of fiscal rectitude into a party whose main domestic policy goal is reducing taxes. With one party promoting government programs to appeal to voters and the other party promoting tax cuts to appeal to voters, and neither party able to generate electoral coalitions around addressing more pressing political and economic problems, this history reveals problems at the heart of contemporary American democracy itself. Prasad suggests some ways forward. Since the end of World War II, many European nations have combined strong social protections with policies to stimulate economic growth such as lower taxes on capital and less regulation on businesses than in the U.S. Starving the Beast suggests that taking inspiration from this model of progressive policies embedded in market-promoting political economy could serve to build an American economy that works better for all.

Starving the Beast by relentlessly cutting taxes for the benefit of the wealthy deprives government of the money it needs to fund social services like well-functioning schools and hospitals, and the financial gap is filled by levying sales and sin taxes the poor cannot avoid, as well as commercial and criminal fines and fees and forfeitures and surcharges and interest to squeeze every last drop of wealth out of poor black and brown folks so that they must accept whatever job is available regardless the wages or conditions. Mike Browns and Joyce Curnells and countless others are being taxed to death because, perfectly contrary to Adam Smith's description of a meritocratic market, those with means refuse to pay for the government that serves them only. Better exploiting the US Tax Code is part of the solution.

Why a book defending government? Because for decades, right-wing forces in this country have engaged in a relentless and irresponsible campaign of vicious government bashing. Conservatives and libertarians have demonized government, attacked basic safety net programs like Medicare, and undermined vital regulations that protect consumers, investors, workers, and the environment. This book takes on this anti-government movement and shows that most of its criticisms of this institution are highly exaggerated, misleading, or just plain wrong. In reality, American government - despite its flaws - plays a valuable and indispensable role in promoting the public good. Most government programs are working well and are actually improving the lives of Americans in innumerable ways. Democratic government is a vital tool for making our world a better place; and if we want an America that is prosperous, healthy, secure, well-educated, just, compassionate, and unpolluted, we need a strong, active, and well-funded public sector. Part I: Why Government is Good. The section of the book describes how government acts as a force for good in society. One chapter chronicles a day in the life of an average middle-class American and identifies the myriad ways that government programs improve our lives. Other chapters describe the forgotten achievements of government; how government is the only way to effectively promote public values like justice and equality; and how a free market economy would be impossible without the elaborate legal and regulatory infrastructure provided by government. Part II: The War on Government. This section of the book chronicles the unrelenting assault on government being waged by conservative forces in this country. Chapters describe how cuts in social programs and rollbacks of regulations have harmed the health, safety, and welfare of millions of Americans and how these assaults have taken place on many fronts - in Congress, the administrative branch, and the federal courts, as well as on the state and local level. Also addressed: how the right's radical anti-government agenda is out of touch with the views and priorities of most Americans, and what the real truth is about government deficits. Part III: How to Revitalize Democracy and Government. There are, in fact, some problems with American government, and we need to address these if we are to restore Americans' faith in this institution. One of the main problems with our government is that it is not accountable and responsive enough to the public. Moneyed special interests too often win out over the public interest. Chapters in this section describe this problem and how we can fix it. There are several reforms - including public financing of elections - that could help our government live up to its democratic ideals. The final chapter discusses strategies for building a pro-government coalition in this country.

For the past 25 years, Americans have been lead to believe that government can cut taxes without adjusting future spending and not harm government finance. Simply put, our government's economic policies have not worked as advertised. That is the conclusion by two prominent scholars in the field-Bryan D. Jones and Walter Williams-and they support it with sharp and insightful analysis of the bad economic ideas that have shaped our economy. The authors look at the amazing resilience of these ideas and why they continue to survive, despite overwhelming evidence that they have caused damage to our long-term fiscal stability and the American economy. Ending on a positive note, Politics of Bad Ideas concludes with suggestions on how we can get out from under the dead weight of these destructive strategies. "Jones and Williams provide a valuable-and much needed-critique of "faith-based" analysis. This is essential reading for students of public policy."--George C. Edwards III, Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jordan Chair in Presidential Studies, Texas A & M University "A lucid, convincing, and devastating critique of supply-side economics and a starve-the-beast route to shrinking the size of government. Jones and Williams document the high cost of the triumph of ideology over neutral competence in national policymaking and suggest ways of restoring honesty and responsibility to public finance in America."--THOMAS E. MANN, Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution, and co-author of The Broken Branch "Here's a good idea: Read The Politics of Bad Ideas. With care and without cant, Jones and Williams?an acclaimed political scientist and an accomplishedpolicy expert?eviscerate the free lunch mantra of radical tax cutters. They show that the "great tax cut delusion" has eroded not just our government's fiscal capacity, but also the health of our representative democracy. - JACOB S. HACKER, Professor of Political Science, Yale University, and author of The

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) provides academic and business economists, government officials, and members of the financial and business communities with timely research on current economic issues. Contents: Editors' Summary The Financial Crisis: An Inside View By Phillip Swagel Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets By John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, and Luis M. Viceira Do Tax Cuts Starve the Beast? The Effect of Tax Changes on Government Spending By Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08 By James D. Hamilton Why Doesn't Capitalism Flow to Poor Countries? By Rafael Di Tella and Robert MacCulloch, reviewing a previous edition or volume

This highly anticipated addition to the "Great Questions in Politics" series offers a provocative argument about the persistence of bad ideas in shaping American economic policy. The result of a collaboration between political scientist Bryan D. Jones and economist Walter Williams, The Politics of Bad Ideas is indispensable reading for any study of American government, public policy, or economic and budgetary analysis. The Politics of Bad Ideas examines why, over the last quarter century, bad economic ideas -- such as cutting taxes without cutting spending -- have become so influential in shaping government policies. Using in-depth research and trenchant political and economic analysis, the book explores why those bad ideas continue to survive despite overwhelming evidence that they in fact cause damage to the federal government's long-term fiscal stability and the American economy.