Economic Consequences Of Lower Military Spending

The IMF MULTIMOD model is used to trace the economic impact of a 20 percent reduction in world military expenditures. GDP falls in the short run, however private consumption and investment rise, leading to an increase in GDP in the medium and long run. The estimated gains to economic welfare are substantial, particularly for developing countries, although most of these gains are realized in the long run. A positive international economic externality is found to exist, implying that for any given country the economic gains from a coordinated reduction in military expenditures exceed the gains from a unilateral reduction.

The IMF MULTIMOD model is used to trace the economic impact of a 20 percent reduction in world military expenditures. GDP falls in the short run, however private consumption and investment rise, leading to an increase in GDP in the medium and long run. The estimated gains to economic welfare are substantial, particularly for developing countries, although most of these gains are realized in the long run. A positive international economic externality is found to exist, implying that for any given country the economic gains from a coordinated reduction in military expenditures exceed the gains from a unilateral reduction.

This book examines the impact defense spending has on economic growth. While defense spending was not deliberately invented as a fiscal policy instrument, its importance in the composition of overall government spending and thus in determining employment is now easily recognized. In light of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the consequent reduction in the threat to the security of the United States, maintaining defense spending at the old level seems indefensible. The media has concentrated on the so-called peace dividend. However, as soon as the federal government is faced with defense cuts, it realizes the macroeconomic ramifications of such a step. Based on studies included in this volume, we examine the effects of defense spending on economic growth and investigate how the changed world political climate is likely to alter the importance and pattern of defense spending both for developed and developing countries.

This book examines the impact defense spending has on economic growth. While defense spending was not deliberately invented as a fiscal policy instrument, its importance in the composition of overall government spending and thus in determining employment is now easily recognized. In light of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the consequent reduction in the threat to the security of the United States, maintaining defense spending at the old level seems indefensible. The media has concentrated on the so-called peace dividend. However, as soon as the federal government is faced with defense cuts, it realizes the macroeconomic ramifications of such a step. Based on studies included in this volume, we examine the effects of defense spending on economic growth and investigate how the changed world political climate is likely to alter the importance and pattern of defense spending both for developed and developing countries.

The purpose of this book is to analyse world military expenditure at the end of the 1980s, and to discuss its political and economic implications. After a decade of unprecedented expansion of international military spending, its level is falling, though modestly. Political developments in Europe and the success of arms control negotiations raise hopes for further reductions. In addition, technological and economic structural disarmament is adding to the pressure for reductions. However, performance has not matched up to promises, and formidable obstacles to defence spending limitations still remain. Military Expenditure surveys recent events and describes the process of change that characterizes international military expenditure, and its determinants, at this time of transformation.

Although conventional wisdom suggests that reducing military spending may improve a country’s economic growth performance, empirical studies have produced ambiguous results. This paper extends a standard growth model and estimates it using techniques that exploit both cross-section and time-series dimensions of available data to obtain consistent estimates of the growth-retarding effects of military spending via its adverse impact on capital formation and resource allocation. Model simulations suggest that a substantial long-run “Peace Dividend”--in the form of higher capacity output--may result from: (i) markedly lower military expenditure levels achieved in most regions during the late 1980s; and (ii) further military spending cuts that would be possible in the future if a global peace could be secured.