Economic Restructuring Unemployment And Growth In A Transition Economy

This paper develops a model of the process of reallocation of labor from the state sector to the private sector. When growth is exogenously determined, we show that in the initial stages of transition unemployment will rise over time. After a critical stage in the transition process, restructuring is accompanied by a decline in unemployment. When growth is endogenously determined, and human capital is acquired by learning-by-doing, we show that whether restructuring eventually occurs is determined by the level of human capital in the private sector and the rate of unemployment. The effects of various shocks and government policies in affecting the costs, speed, and eventual outcome of restructuring are analyzed.

This paper develops a model of the process of reallocation of labor from the state sector to the private sector. When growth is exogenously determined, we show that in the initial stages of transition unemployment will rise over time. After a critical stage in the transition process, restructuring is accompanied by a decline in unemployment. When growth is endogenously determined, and human capital is acquired by learning-by-doing, we show that whether restructuring eventually occurs is determined by the level of human capital in the private sector and the rate of unemployment. The effects of various shocks and government policies in affecting the costs, speed, and eventual outcome of restructuring are analyzed.

The emergence of open unemployment is an unavoidable consequence of postcommunist transition. Some countries-notably in the former Soviet Union-initially slowed economic contraction. But in the longer run slower reformers have generally sustained deeper and more prolonged recessions than faster reforming central European countries. Moreover, the initially low unemployment rates in the former Soviet Union are now rising, and may stabilise at higher post-transition equilibrium rates than in Central Europe.

This book provides a detailed picture of the equity and efficiency of economic restructuring, focusing on the two most important successor states to the Soviet Union. Analysis is based on a careful examination of micro level data, documenting the experiences of workers, households and firms.

"The paper reviews labor market developments in the transition economies of Europe and Central Asia. It argues that the scarcity of productive job opportunities and the growing labor market segmentation are the two main labor market problems facing the transition economies. In the European transition economies the lack of jobs has led to persistent open unemployment. In the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) it has led to hidden unemployment (underemployment and low productivity employment). Unemployment in the European transition economies is supported by the developed social safety net. In contrast, in the CIS for most workers unemployment is not an affordable option. They either stick to their old, unproductive jobs in unrestructured enterprises, or work in the informal sector, or resort to subsistence agriculture. Thus, underemployment in the CIS is a mirror image of unemployment in the European transition economies. Accordingly, the high employment-to-population ratios in many CIS countries do not necessarily signify favorable labor market performance. Instead they often indicate delayed enterprise restructuring, the maintenance of unsustainable jobs in uncompetitive firms, and the existence of a large informal sector as an employer of last resort. Labor market segmentation has been caused by a sharp increase in earnings differentials and the attendant increase in the incidence of low-paid jobs, by the polarization of regional labor market conditions, and finally by the growth of the informal sector offering casual, low-productivity jobs. Labor market segmentation and accompanying inequalities are more pronounced in the CIS than in the European transition economies. "--World Bank web site.

One challenge in transition economies has been to avoid being caught between overrapid restructuring (harmful to the private sector) and gradual change (can undermine robust private sector emergence). Empirical evidence suggests that in most of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, insiders, by exerting decision making control, have materially affected the restructuring rate. Still, shocks to firms have generally led to sharp rises in unemployment. Unemployment benefits, initially generous, combined with lost payroll taxes substantially increased fiscal costs. In the former Soviet Union, both restructuring and unemployment have remained limited and firm subsidies remained high. The private sector expanded, but chiefly in the gray (untaxed) part of the economy. The authors examine the implications of various restructuring speeds, explicitly introducing probabilities of closure and restructuring. They find that when the probability of closure is small, unemployment will peak at a lower level than when the probability of closure is high, although the transition speed will be much slower. They also find that widespread private sector tax avoidance can stimulate that sector ` s growth and result in a speedier transition. Thus, while a private sector low tax burden can drive unemployment up rapidly by increasing the state sector closure probability, it can also help speed up the transition by provoking a quicker private sector response. The authors show that while the state sector restructuring speed is sensitive to the tax burden, (dependent on unemployment and the ability to tax the private sector) it is also true that the private sectors growth depends on the tax burden it faces. In particular, capturing the private sector in the tax net early in the transition can lead to collapse and hence to the failure of restructuring.