Effect Of Monetary Policy On Exchange Rate In Rwanda

Seminar paper from the year 2024 in the subject Economics - Monetary theory and policy, grade: 7.9, University of Rwanda (Business & Economics), course: Monetary Policy, language: English, abstract: The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of monetary policy on exchange rate in Rwanda. In conducting this research, four objectives were to assess the effect of monetary stock on exchange rate in Rwanda, to assess the effect of interest rate on exchange rate in Rwanda, to analyze the effect of oil prices on exchange rate in Rwanda and finally to examine the effect of government expenditure on exchange rate in Rwanda. To achieve these objectives, literature was reviewed on the subject matter including definitions of key concepts, conceptual review, theoretical framework, conceptual framework and research gap analysis; additionally this study used quantitative research design through the interpretation of findings about the effect of monetary policy on exchange rate in Rwanda during the period of 2000 up to 2022. Also, thus study considered only using secondary data. Monetary policy has a strong influence over interest rates in the economy, including the lending and deposit rates faced by households and businesses.

This paper examines how susceptible East African Community (EAC) economies are to asymmetric shocks, assesses the value of the exchange rate as a shock absorber for these countries, and reviews adjustment mechanisms that would help ensure a successful experience under a common currency. The report draws on analysis of recent experiences and examines likely future changes in the EAC economies.

We develop a simple semistructural model for the Rwandan economy to better understand the monetary policy transmission mechanism. A key feature of the model is the introduction of a modified uncovered interest parity condition to capture key structural features of Rwanda’s economy and policy framework, such as the limited degree of capital mobility. A filtration of the observed data through the model allows us to illustrate the contribution of various factors to inflation dynamics and its deviations from the inflation target. Our results, consistent with evidence for other countries in the region, suggest that food and oil prices as well as the exchange rate have accounted for the bulk of inflation dynamics in Rwanda.

Rwanda has responded to lower aid by tightening policies and drawing on its foreign reserves to cushion the impact on the economy. Economic activity has been resilient despite lower aid inflows. The agreed framework for the FY2013/14 budget is in line with Policy Support Instrument (PSI) objectives. The government’s intention to develop a comprehensive plan for enhancing domestic revenue mobilization over the medium term is timely. Rwanda’s new poverty reduction strategy (EDPRS2) and the commitment to tighten the monetary stance while allowing greater exchange rate flexibility is encouraging.

Bachelor Thesis from the year 2022 in the subject Business economics - Miscellaneous, grade: 99.8, University of Rwanda (College of Business and Economics), course: Development Economics, language: English, abstract: The purpose of this research project was to assess the impact of interest rates on economic growth in Rwanda from 1998 to 2020. In conducting this research, three objectives were to determine the factors that influence interest rate on Rwandan economy, to assess the level of economic growth in Rwanda from 1998 to 2020, and to assess the relationship between interest rates on economic growth in Rwanda from 1998 to 2020. To achieve these objectives, literature were reviewed on the subject matter, and then data was collected with annually reports published by BNR, NISR and MINECOFIN through inflation rate, GDP and Interest rate. Documentation review was used as a tool for data collection.

Many central banks in low-income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are modernising their monetary policy frameworks. Standard statistical procedures have had limited success in identifying the channels of monetary transmission in such countries. Here we take a narrative approach, following Romer and Romer (1989), and center on a significant tightening of monetary policy that took place in 2011 in four members of the East African Community: Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda. We find clear evidence of the transmission mechanism in most of the countries, and argue that deviations can be explained by differences in the policy regime in place.

This paper studies the evolution of the exchange rates of sub-Saharan African currencies in the context of the global financial crisis. In particular, it analyzes the reasons behind the differences in the magnitude and volatility of the exchange rates among countries. To this end, it takes a sample of seven countries, four members of the East African Community (EAC) (Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda), and three others, which experienced large exchange rate losses at the onset of the crisis: Ghana, Nigeria, and Zambia. First, it analyzes the movements of the exchange rates with respect to the U.S. dollar and two other major currencies. Second, it tries to link the magnitude of their movements to key factors, relating to the external environment and the countries’ internal policies.

National Bank of Rwanda (BNR) modernized monetary policy and transited to the price-based policy framework in January 2019. The Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) is the cornerstone for the new forward-looking framework, which mobilizes and organizes resources and sets processes for regular forecasting rounds. The core of this system is a structural macroeconomic model for macroeconomic analysis and projections to support the BNR staff’s policy recommendations to the monetary policy committee. This paper documents the quarterly projection model (QPM) at the core of the FPAS at the BNR. The model is an extension of the canonical structure in Berg et al (2006) to reflect specifics of the interest-rate-based policy framework with a managed exchange rate, the effect of agricultural sector and harvests on prices, and the role of fiscal policies and aid flows.