Employment Forecasting

In this report Professor Hartle presents the findings of a series of investigations that have been carried out, partly under the auspices and partly with the co-operation, of the Canadian Department of Labour. The object of the investigations, the Employment Forecast Survey, was initiated by the Economics and Research Branch of that Department in 1946 to obtain information about the future levels and trends of employment in industry. The first phase of the investigation was carried out in 1953 by Professor William C. Hood assisted by Professor Hartle, and their report, dealing with the administration, policy, and technique of the Survey, constituted the foundation of the present study. In 1956-7 Professor Hartle conducted further studies of the Survey and its administration, analysing in particular the predictions which have been derived from the forecasts provided by individual establishments, and evaluating improvements which might have been made in the reliability both of the employer's forecasts and the Department's conclusions. The final phase of investigation carried out by Professor Hartle has been concerned mainly with an analysis of the forecasts of individual establishments. Professor Hartle's monograph, comprising as it does the findings of this whole series of studies, thus provides a comprehensive and detailed analysis of the Employment Forecast Survey. It is valuable for its comparison of the EFS with similar surveys conducted in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany. Canadian Studies in Economics, No. 14.

List of Figures. List of Tables. Foreword. Introduction; H. Heijke. Part I: Models and Methods. 1. Modelling and Forecasting the Structure of Employment in the United Kingdom; R. Wilson. 2. Medium and Long-Term Forecasting of Employment in Germany; J. Fuchs, M. Tessaring. 3. Indicating the Future Labour Market Prospects of Occupational Groups and Types of Education in the Netherlands; R. Dekker, A. de Grip, H. Heijke. Part II: Forecasts. 4. Policy Implications of Recent IER Assessments of the British Labour Market; R. Lindley. 5. Manpower Requirements by Levels of Qualification in the Federal Republic of Germany until 2010; M. Tessaring. 6. The Market Position of Occupations and Types of Education in the Netherlands; R. van der Velden, E. Willems. Part III: Reflections. 7. A Perspective on IER Forecasting Activities; R. Lindley. 8. IAB's Medium and Long Term Labour Market Projections -- Selected Aspects; G. KÃ1⁄4hlewind. 9. ROA's Activities and Plans relating to the Information System on Education and the Labour Market; H. Heijke.