Energy Demand And Planning

Energy, Demand and Planning brings together a group of distinguished authors from many relevant disciplines, under the auspices of the Watt Committee on Energy. The authors were asked to consider the effects of policy decisions that might be taken now on the planning of the world energy industries in the coming half-century or so. Discussion is held on such key topics as technological change, sustainable development, global warming and the effects of population growth, all of which require policy decisions at national and international levels, affecting the daily lives of people in both advanced and developing countries.

This book systematically introduces readers to the operator method, which can be used in different stages of urban planning. Energy planning should ideally be accompanied by urban planning, ranging from comprehensive planning and detailed planning, to the design of individual construction projects. This book discusses a range of methods and models for defining energy planning objectives; analyzing and predicting energy demand; assessing available energy resources; optimizing integrated energy systems; analyzing the cost-effectiveness of proposals; implementation management; and post-assessment. Part one focuses on energy planning in different urban planning stages, while part two provides detailed discussions of key issues related to energy planning.

The fIrst oil crisis of 1973-74 and the questions it raised in the economic and social fIelds drew attention to energy issues. Industrial societies, accustomed for two decades or more to energy sufficiently easy to produce and cheap to consume that it was thought to be inexhaustible, began to question their energy future. The studies undertaken at that time, and since, on a national, regional, or world level were over-optimistic. The problem seemed simple enough to solve. On the one hand, a certain number of resources: coal, the abundance of which was discovered, or rather rediscovered oil, source of all the problems ... In fact, the problems seemed to come, if not from oil itself (an easy explanation), then from those who produced it without really owning it, and from those who owned it without really control ling it natural gas, second only to oil and less compromised uranium, all of whose promises had not been kept, but whose resources were not in question solar energy, multiform and really inexhaustible thermonuclear fusion, and geothermal energy, etc. On the other hand, energy consumption, though excessive perhaps, was symbolic of progress, development, and increased well being. The originality of the energy policies set up since 1974 lies in the fact they no longer aimed to produce (or import) more, but to consume less. They sought, and still seek, what might be emphatically called the control of energy consump tion, or rather the control of energy demand.

Over the next several decades, as human populations grow, the demand for energy will soar. But renewable energy sources have a large energy sprawl--the amount of land needed to produce energy--which can threaten biodiversity. In Energy Sprawl Solutions, scientists Joseph M. Kiesecker and David Naugle provide a roadmap for preserving biodiversity despite the threats of energy sprawl. Their strategy--development by design--identifies and sets aside land where biodiversity can thrive while consolidating development in areas with lower biodiversity value. This contributed volume features case studies from countries around the world, each describing a different energy sector and the way they have successfully maximized biodiversity protection. This book provides a needed guide for elected officials, industry representatives, NGOs and community groups who have a stake in sustainable energy-development planning.

Over the past decade almost all developing countries have established energy planning activities in response to the grave problems that have arisen as a result of the drastic increase in energy prices, of the burden of energy related investment debt service, and of the problems of deforestation. Although the insti tutional and organizational responses are quite varied, it is largely engineers and economists who have been called upon to provide the necessary analytical capability to support policy decisions in the energy area. However, as evidenced by the recent participants in the Energy Management Training Program (EMTP), many of the analytical techniques now regarded as appropriate go beyond the usual background of those who are now assigned to such tasks. Indeed, this monograph is based on the material presented in the first ·part of the course, whose purpose is to bring the often diverse group to some common ground. Some of the material, such as Chapter 4 on the basics of energy pricing, is intended primarily for engineers. Other sections, such as Chapter 2 on energy balances, is primarily a vehicle for a discussion of the problems of units and differences in approach by different international bodies. The intent, then, is to provide in a single work a primer on a large number of different analytical tools.

The Advanced Research Institute (ARI) on "The Application of Systems Science to Energy Policy Planning" was held under the auspices of the NATO Special Programme Panel on Systems Science in collaboration with the National Center for Analysis of Energy Sys tems, Brookhaven National Laboratory, USA, as a part of the NATO Science Committee's continuous effort to promote the advancement of science through international cooperation. Advanced Research Institutes are sponsored by the NATO Science Committee for the purposes of bringing together senior scientists to seek consensus on an assessment of the present state of knowl edge on a specific topic and to make recommendations for future research directions. Meetings are structured to encourage inten sive group discussion. Invitees are carefully selected so that the group as a whole will contain the experience and expertise neces sary to make the conclusions valid and significant. A final report is published presenting the various viewpoints and conclusions. The NATO Systems Science Panel noted that the systems approach is increasingly being applied to energy policy analysis and plan ning in both public and private sectors of national economies. Consequently, it seemed appropriate at this time to bring together experts to review and evaluate recent experience, in order to iden tify strengths and weaknesses in current prac tice, and to make recommendations for research directions.