Estimating Fatality Rates For Earthquake Loss Models

This manuscript sets out a process for estimating fatalities in collapsed buildings due to ground shaking in an earthquake. The aim of this research is to supplement current earthquake loss estimation with fatality rates (percentage of occupants killed) for use in models which are based on recent empirical information on deaths from earthquakes. This document specifically explores the lethality potential to occupants of collapsed structures. Whilst earthquake casualty modeling has admittedly suffered from a lack of post-earthquake collection of data and rigour in assessing these data, recent earthquakes such as 2008 Wenchuan (China) and 2011 Christchurch (New Zealand) have brought to light some important findings. Under the auspices of US Geological Survey’s PAGER, empirical fatality data related to collapses of buildings from significant earthquakes in the past 40 years have been thoroughly examined. Through detailed investigations of fatal building collapses and the volume reductions within these buildings, important clues related to the lethality potential of different failure mechanisms of global modern and older construction types were found. The gathered evidence forms the basis of the derivation of a set of fatality rates for use in loss models. The set of judgment-based rates are for 31 global building types. This significant advancement in casualty modeling, the resolutions and quality of available data, the important assumptions made, and the final derivation of fatality rates are discussed here. This document contributes to global efforts to develop a way of estimating probable earthquake fatalities very rapidly after an earthquake has taken place. The fatality rates proposed here can be incorporated directly into earthquake loss estimation models where fatalities are derived from collapses of different types of buildings.

Assessment of human casualties in earthquakes has become a topic of vital importance for national and urban authorities responsible for emergency provision, for the development of mitigation strategies and for the development of adequate insurance schemes. In the last few years important work has been carried out on a number of recent events (including earthquakes in Kocaeli, Turkey 1999, Niigata Japan, 2004, Sichuan, China 2008 and L'Aquila,Italy 2009). These events have created new and detailed casualty data, which has not until now been properly assembled and evaluated. This book draws the new evidence from recent events together with existing knowledge. It summarises current trends in the understanding of the factors influencing the numbers and types of casualties in earthquakes; it offers methods to incorporate this understanding into the estimation of losses in future events in different parts of the world; it discusses ways in which pre-event mitigation activity and post-event emergency management can reduce the toll of casualties in future events; and it identifies future research needs.

Topics in this volume include calculating seismic risk, replacement cost estimation procedures, methods for developing component loss algorithms and applications of loss algorithm methods to demonstration water system components.

WHY DO BUILDINGS COLLAPSE IN EARTHQUAKES? Learn from the personal experience and insights of leading earthquake engineering specialists as they examine the lessons from disasters of the last 30 years and propose a path to earthquake safety worldwide Why Do Buildings Collapse in Earthquakes?: Building for Safety in Seismic Areas delivers an insightful and comprehensive analysis of the key lessons taught by building failures during earthquakes around the world. The book uses empirical evidence to describe the successes of earthquake engineering and disaster preparedness, as well as the failures that may have had tragic consequences. Readers will learn what makes buildings in earthquake zones vulnerable, what can be done to design, build and maintain those buildings to reduce or eliminate that vulnerability, and what can be done to protect building occupants. Those who are responsible for the lives and safety of building occupants and visitors—architects, designers, engineers, and building owners or managers—will learn how to provide adequate safety in earthquake zones. The text offers useful and accessible answers to anyone interested in natural disasters generally and those who have specific concerns about the impact of earthquakes on the built environment. Readers will benefit from the inclusion of: A thorough introduction to how buildings have behaved in earthquakes, including a description of the world’s most lethal earthquakes and the fatality trend over time An exploration of how buildings are constructed around the world, including considerations of the impact of climate and seismicity on home design A discussion of what happens during an earthquake, including the types and levels of ground motion, landslides, tsunamis, and sequential effects, and how different types of buildings tend to behave in response to those phenomena What different stakeholders can do to improve the earthquake safety of their buildings The owners and managers of buildings in earthquake zones and those responsible for the safety of people who occupy or visit them will find Why Do Buildings Collapse in Earthquakes? Building for Safety in Seismic Areas essential reading, as will all architects, designers and engineers who design or refurbish buildings in earthquake zones.

We studied the earthquake mortality rates for more than 4,500 worldwide earthquakes since 1973 and developed an empirical country- and region-specific earthquake vulnerability model to be used as a candidate for post-earthquake fatality estimation by the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system.