Everyday Probability And Statistics

Probability and statistics impinge on the life of the average person in a variety of ways OCo as is suggested by the title of this book. Very often, information is provided that is factually accurate but intended to present a biased view. This book presents the important results of probability and statistics without making heavy mathematical demands on the reader. It should enable an intelligent reader to properly assess statistical information and to understand that the same information can be presented in different ways.

Probability and statistics impinge on the life of the average person in a variety of ways — as is suggested by the title of this book. Very often information is provided that is factually accurate but intended to give a biased view. This book presents the important results of probability and statistics without making heavy mathematical demands on the reader. It should enable an intelligent reader to properly assess statistical information and to understand that the same information can be presented in different ways. In this second edition the author presents a new chapter exploring science and society including the way that scientists communicate with the public on current topics, such as global warming. The book also investigates pensions and pension policy, and how they are influenced by changing actuarial tables. Contents:The Nature of ProbabilityCombining ProbabilitiesA Day at the RacesMaking Choices and SelectionsNon-Intuitive Examples of ProbabilityProbability and HealthCombining Probabilities: The Craps Game RevealedThe UK National Lottery, Loaded Dice and Crooked WheelsBlock DiagramsThe Normal (or Gaussian) DistributionStatistics: The Collection and Analysis of Numerical DataThe Poisson Distribution and Death by Horse KicksPredicting Voting PatternsTaking Samples: How Many Fish in the Pond?Differences: Rats and IQsCrime is Increasing and DecreasingMy Uncle Joe Smoked 60 a DayChance, Luck and Making DecisionsScience and SocietyThe Pensions Problem Readership: Undergraduate students in mathematics; general public interested in probability and statistics. Keywords:Probability;StatisticsKey Features:Assumes a modest mathematical backgroundDeals with matters of everyday lifePresents problems and solutions for the reader to test their level of understanding

Probability and statistics impinge on the life of the average person in a variety of ways -- as is suggested by the title of this book. Very often information is provided that is factually accurate but intended to give a biased view. This book presents the important results of probability and statistics without making heavy mathematical demands on the reader. It should enable an intelligent reader to properly assess statistical information and to understand that the same information can be presented in different ways.In this second edition the author presents a new chapter exploring science and society including the way that scientists communicate with the public on current topics, such as global warming. The book also investigates pensions and pension policy, and how they are influenced by changing actuarial tables.

Life can be unpredictable. And the more you can predict, the more control you will have over your own life. From calculating the health risks of smoking a pack of cigarettes a day to deciding on the best investments for your money, probabilities play a part in nearly all aspects of everyday life. Now, physics professor John D. McGervey puts all the facts and figures at your fingertips to help you make savvy, informed choices at home, at work, and at play. You will learn how the author believes you can: * Increase your chances of winning blackjack, contract bridge, horse racing, sports betting, and more * Get the most for your dollar when investing or buying insurance * Judge the risks of such common activities as smoking, using drugs, owning a handgun, and driving without a seat belt * Avoid faulty gambling systems and identify misleading statistics that can be used to draw you into poor investments * And much more. Inside you'll find a lively, entertaining, enlightening approach to minimizing your risks and maximizing your results -- simple strategies designed to give you the edge in life.

Understanding Probability is a unique and stimulating approach to a first course in probability. The first part of the book demystifies probability and uses many wonderful probability applications from everyday life to help the reader develop a feel for probabilities. The second part, covering a wide range of topics, teaches clearly and simply the basics of probability. This fully revised third edition has been packed with even more exercises and examples and it includes new sections on Bayesian inference, Markov chain Monte-Carlo simulation, hitting probabilities in random walks and Brownian motion, and a new chapter on continuous-time Markov chains with applications. Here you will find all the material taught in an introductory probability course. The first part of the book, with its easy-going style, can be read by anybody with a reasonable background in high school mathematics. The second part of the book requires a basic course in calculus.

Elements of probability; Random variables and expectation; Special; random variables; Sampling; Parameter estimation; Hypothesis testing; Regression; Analysis of variance; Goodness of fit and nonparametric testing; Life testing; Quality control; Simulation.

Stopping a plague (even zombies), tomorrow’s likelihood of rain, and buying a lottery ticket are united by chance. Wildlife conservation, a baseball box score, and governmental spending are united by the need to record numbers. Statistics and probability measure the current state of something and the relative likelihood of potential future states. This book will explore how common experiences are counted, evaluated, and used to make intelligent decisions for the future based on uncertain outcomes.

A revised edition that explores random numbers, probability, and statistical inference at an introductory mathematical level Written in an engaging and entertaining manner, the revised and updated second edition of Probably Not continues to offer an informative guide to probability and prediction. The expanded second edition contains problem and solution sets. In addition, the book’s illustrative examples reveal how we are living in a statistical world, what we can expect, what we really know based upon the information at hand and explains when we only think we know something. The author introduces the principles of probability and explains probability distribution functions. The book covers combined and conditional probabilities and contains a new section on Bayes Theorem and Bayesian Statistics, which features some simple examples including the Presecutor’s Paradox, and Bayesian vs. Frequentist thinking about statistics. New to this edition is a chapter on Benford’s Law that explores measuring the compliance and financial fraud detection using Benford’s Law. This book: Contains relevant mathematics and examples that demonstrate how to use the concepts presented Features a new chapter on Benford’s Law that explains why we find Benford’s law upheld in so many, but not all, natural situations Presents updated Life insurance tables Contains updates on the Gantt Chart example that further develops the discussion of random events Offers a companion site featuring solutions to the problem sets within the book Written for mathematics and statistics students and professionals, the updated edition of Probably Not: Future Prediction Using Probability and Statistical Inference, Second Edition combines the mathematics of probability with real-world examples. LAWRENCE N. DWORSKY, PhD, is a retired Vice President of the Technical Staff and Director of Motorola’s Components Research Laboratory in Schaumburg, Illinois, USA. He is the author of Introduction to Numerical Electrostatics Using MATLAB from Wiley.