Exiting The Fragility Trap

State fragility is a much-debated yet underinvestigated concept in the development and international security worlds. Based on years of research as part of the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy project at Carleton University, Exiting the Fragility Trap marks a major step toward remedying the lack of research into the so-called fragility trap. In examining the nature and dynamics of state transitions in fragile contexts, with a special emphasis on states that are trapped in fragility, David Carment and Yiagadeesen Samy ask three questions: Why do some states remain stuck in a fragility trap? What lessons can we learn from those states that have successfully transitioned from fragility to stability and resilience? And how can third-party interventions support fragile state transitions toward resilience? Carment and Samy consider fragility’s evolution in three state types: countries that are trapped, countries that move in and out of fragility, and countries that have exited fragility. Large-sample empirical analysis and six comparative case studies—Pakistan and Yemen (trapped countries), Mali and Laos (in-and-out countries), and Bangladesh and Mozambique (exited countries)—drive their investigation, which breaks ground toward a new understanding of why some countries fail to see sustained progress over time.

High persistence of state fragility (a fragility trap) suggests the presence of substantial benefits from avoiding a fall into fragility and considerable hurdles to successful exit from fragility. This paper empirically examines the factors that affect the turning points of entering and exiting from state fragility by employing three different approaches: an event study, the synthetic control method, and a logit model. We find that avoiding economic contraction is critical to prevent a country on the brink of fragility from falling into fragility (e.g., among near fragile countries, the probability of entering fragility would rise by 40 percentage points should real GDP per capita growth decline from +2.5 percent to -2.5 percent). Also, strengthening government effectiveness together with increasing political inclusion and maintaining robust economic activity should help make exit from fragility more successful and sustainable. In the current environment (the COVID-19 crisis and its aftermath), the findings suggest the importance of providing well-directed fiscal stimulus with sufficient financing, (subject to appropriate governance safeguards and well-designed policies), and protecting critical socio-economic spending to keep vulnerable countries away from being caught in a fragility trap.

This paper studies the role of fiscal policies and institutions in building resilience in sub-Saharan African countries during 1990-2013, with specific emphasis on a group of twenty-six countries that were deemed fragile in the 1990s. As the drivers of fragility and resilience are closely intertwined, we use GMM estimation as well as a probabilistic framework to address endogeneity and reverse causality. We find that fiscal institutions and fiscal space, namely the capacity to raise tax revenue and contain current spending, as well as lower military spending and, to some extent, higher social expenditure, are significantly and fairly robustly associated with building resilience. Similar conclusions arise from a study of the progression of a group of seven out of the twenty-six sub- Saharan African countries that managed to build resilience after years of civil unrest and/or violent conflict. These findings suggest relatively high returns to focusing on building sound fiscal institutions in fragile states. The international community can help this process through policy advice, technical assistance, and training on tax administration and budget reforms.

This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic growth in the Central African Republic has remained anemic since 2013 owing to structural rigidities, poor infrastructure, and limited energy supply. Inflation reached 11.6 percent in 2014 and receded to 4.5 percent in 2015 thanks to improved supply conditions and a fall in the prices of basic imports. Corrective measures implemented in 2015 allowed revenue to reach 7.1 percent. IMF Executive Directors have commended the authorities for the progress achieved under their economic program supported by the Rapid Credit Facility, which has helped stabilize the economy, rebuild core administrative capacity, and improve the management of public resources.

This book brings together a diverse range of scholars and practitioners working at the nexus of peace and development to reflect, at the mid-way point of the Sustainable Development Goals implementation period, what impact Goal 16 has made, or may yet make, toward reducing violence in ‘all its forms.’ Adopted in 2015, the Sustainable Development Goals include 17 objectives designed to shape and direct the global development agenda through to 2030, with Goal 16 aiming to promote ‘peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development.’ Amidst an ongoing global pandemic, evidence of a fracturing liberal international order, and the persistence of seemingly intractable conflict in large parts of the world, this volume takes stock of current progress toward providing access to justice and ensuring inclusive and democratic institutions. Across 15 chapters, the book’s contributors explore the universal aspirations of Goal 16 and its specific implications for conflict-affected states, which continue to experience ‘development in reverse,’ and for historically marginalized groups such as women, youth, the disabled, and indigenous peoples. In doing so, it offers a comprehensive assessment of Goal 16’s broader contribution to the creation of a more just, peaceful world against the realities of societies emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic and grappling with a deepening climate crisis. This volume will appeal to scholars, researchers, policymakers, and postgraduate students in sustainable development, global governance, international relations, global development, international law, and political science.

Mali has many characteristics of a fragile and conflict-affected state. Like many other fragile states, Mali has high population growth, which puts pressure on the country’s resources, including food supplies. Gender inequality in the country is also high, with women and girls experiencing disadvantages in many aspects of life. These challenges are closely related, so coordinated reforms are required to break the vicious cycle which has left Mali trapped in a state of fragility since 2012.

This volume covers a wide spectrum of governance issues relating to small states in a global context. While different definitions of governance are given in the chapters, most authors associate governance with the setting and implementation of policies aimed at managing a country or territory, and with the related institutional structures and interventions by political actors. Generally, good governance is associated with concepts such as policy effectiveness, accountability, transparency, control of corruption, encouragement of citizens’ voice and gender equality—factors which are, in turn, linked with democracy. What emerges from the book is that the societies of small states are being re-shaped by various forces outside their control, including the globalization process and climate change, rendering their governance ever more complex. These problems are not solely faced by small states, but small country size tends to lead to a higher degree of exposure to external factors. The chapters are grouped into four sections broadly covering political, environmental, social and economic governance. Governance is influenced by many, often intertwined, factors; the division of the book into four parts therefore does not detract from the fact that governance is multifaceted, and such division was based on the primary focus of each particular study and its main disciplinary background. The expert authors have, moreover, used a variety of approaches in the studies, the subject of small states being well suited to scholarly work from different disciplines using qualitative, quantitative and mixed approaches to arrive at useful conclusions.

This timely Handbook examines the causes, costs and consequences of state fragility, advancing key debates in the field. Demonstrating the multidimensionality of fragility by applying diverse theories and methodologies, it provides new insights on effective policy development and application in the context of fragile states.