Exploring A Low Carbon Development Path For Vietnam

Bringing together a large set of data and building on two years of consultations in Vietnam with Government counterparts, research organizations, state-owned enterprises, private sector and Vietnam international development partners, the report formulates two scenarios to explore and analyze Vietnam's options up to the year 2030: a business as usual and a low carbon development scenario. Based on a thorough data modeling effort for the key carbon emitting sectors of Vietnam, the report also provides some policy guidance for the Government’s consideration. This report is also unique as it brings together and presents data on multiple sectors of Vietnam's economy, making this information available for future reference. This effort is the result of two years of collaboration with the Government of Vietnam as part of the Vietnam Low Carbon Options Assessment technical assistance. By highlighting several economic opportunities and clarifying the issues at hand, this work is a milestone in this complex debate and I believe will help all stakeholders willing to consider and responsible to design the policies and measures to address those challenges.

Viet Nam has had rapid economic growth in recent years, but this growth has been energy-dependent, even as the energy system has become more carbon intensive. This study uses a bottom-up model to evaluate 63 measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from household electricity, industry, power generation, and transport. It finds potential for emissions reduction by 53% in 2050, and that much of this reduction can occur at low or negative financial costs. Moreover, these measures are found to ultimately lead to faster and more inclusive economy-wide growth. Policy measures are identified to help realize the modeled potential.

The Federal Government of Nigeria has adopted an ambitious strategy to make Nigeria the world’s 20th largest economy by 2020. Sustaining such a pace of growth will entail rapid expansion of the level of activity in key carbon-emitting sectors, such as power, oil and gas, agriculture and transport. In the absence of policies to accompany economic growth with a reduced carbon foot-print, emissions of greenhouse gases could more than double in the next two decades. This study finds that there are several options for Nigeria to achieve the development objectives of vision 20:2020 and beyond, but stabilizing emissions at 2010 levels, and with domestic benefits in the order of 2 percent of GDP. These benefits include cheaper and more diversified electricity sources; more efficient operation of the oil and gas industry; more productive and climate –resilient agriculture; and better transport services, resulting in fuel economies, better air quality, and reduced congestion. The study outlines several actions that the Federal Government could undertake to facilitate the transition towards a low carbon economy, including enhanced governance for climate action, integration of climate consideration in the Agriculture Transformation Agenda, promotion of energy efficiency programs, scale-up of low carbon technologies in power generation (such as renewables an combined cycle gas turbines), and enhance vehicle fuel efficiency.

The Federal Government of Nigeria has adopted Vision 20: 2020--an ambitious strategy to make Nigeria the world's 20th largest economy by 2020. In the absence of policies to accompany economic growth in key carbon-emitting sectors with a reduced carbon footprint, emission of greenhouse gases could more than double in the next two decades. To evaluate how to achieve the objectives of Vision 20: 2020 with reduced carbon emissions, the Federal Government of Nigeria and the World Bank undertook a multiyear program of analytical work. The summary results of this program are contained in a separate book (published in the World Bank's "Directions in Development" series) entitled Low-Carbon Development: Opportunities for Nigeria, which concludes that Nigeria can achieve its development objectives, while stabilizing emissions at 2010 levels and providing domestic benefi ts on the order of 2 percent of GDP. This volume is a collection of the background technical reports on the four sectors of inquiry: agriculture and land use, oil and gas, power, and transport. It contains details on the data, methodology, and assumptions used throughout the analysis. For agriculture and land use, the study team developed an agriculture production growth model, which permits the evaluation of sector emissions in both a reference and a low-carbon scenario. The study fi nds that low-carbon practices have signifi cant potential to make the sector more productive and more climate-resilient. For the oil and gas sector, the analysis assesses the potential of accelerated phase-put of gas fl aring, reduction of leakages, and increased energy effi ciency in the operation of facilities, to both reduce the sector's emission and contribute to the industry's net revenues and growth. The analysis of the power sector shows how the country can expand power generation and broaden access to electricity while reducing associated emissions, through renewable energy, energy effi ciency, and lower-carbon technologies in thermal power generation. Finally, this analysis assesses the expected growth in CO2 emissions from on-road transport under a normal business development scenario up to the year 2035, and it identifi es actions at national and local levels that would reduce this growth, resulting in fuel economies, better air quality, and reduced congestion. Assessing Low-Carbon Development in Nigeria: An Analysis of Four Sectors outlines several actions that the Nigerian government could undertake to facilitate the transition to a low-carbon economy.

As Vietnam pursues a path of sustainable growth, inland waterway transport and coastal shipping offer viable alternatives to the traditional road sector, particularly when environmental costs are taken into consideration. This report profiles Vietnam’s waterborne transport sector and proposes interventions to improve its performance.

The Asia-Pacific region has come to a historical crossroad: development goals are within reach and the region has the opportunity to lift its people out of poverty. But arriving at those goals and pulling millions more people out of poverty cannot be done through conventional growth strategies. Resource constraints, price volatility and the climate crisis have removed business as usual as an option for all economies. The situation now requires a serious re-examination of the resource- and carbon-intensive growth strategies. Every country in the Asia-Pacific region needs to drastically improve its resource efficiency. The region must embrace a new growth strategy that can turn the trade-off between economic development and environmental protection into a win-win synergy in which "going green" drives economic growth. The Low Carbon Green Growth Roadmap for Asia and the Pacific explores the opportunities that a low carbon green growth path offers to the region. It articulates five tracks on which to drive the economic system change necessary to pursue low carbon green growth as a new economic development path. In particular, the "visible structure" of the economy, comprising such physical infrastructure as transport, buildings and energy systems, together with the "invisible structure", which encompasses market prices, governance, regulations and lifestyles, have to be re-oriented towards resource efficiency. The Roadmap provides policymakers in the region with a comprehensive list of policy options and practical implementing strategies as well as examples of successful practices, woven through more than 100 fact sheets and case studies.