Fiscal Policy And Investment

This paper reports on findings from eight pilot country studies on public investment that were carried out during the second half of 2004. The pilot country studies covered a diverse group of countries. Specifically, they included countries in Latin America (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Peru), Africa (Ethiopia and Ghana), the Middle East (Jordan), and Asia (India).

The key to sustained recovery in developing countries is the revival of private investment. This revival requires a coordinated set of credible policies - fiscal, exchange rate, tax, and public expenditure restructuring. In several countries the debt overhang is also an obstacle to achieving that credibility.

The recent recession has brought fiscal policy back to the forefront, with economists and policy makers struggling to reach a consensus on highly political issues like tax rates and government spending. At the heart of the debate are fiscal multipliers, whose size and sensitivity determine the power of such policies to influence economic growth. Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis focuses on the effects of fiscal stimuli and increased government spending, with contributions that consider the measurement of the multiplier effect and its size. In the face of uncertainty over the sustainability of recent economic policies, further contributions to this volume discuss the merits of alternate means of debt reduction through decreased government spending or increased taxes. A final section examines how the short-term political forces driving fiscal policy might be balanced with aspects of the long-term planning governing monetary policy. A direct intervention in timely debates, Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis offers invaluable insights about various responses to the recent financial crisis.

This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.

Abstract: Solvency is an intertemporal concept, relating to the present value of revenues and expenditures, and encompassing both assets and liabilities. But the standard practice among policy makers, financial market participants and international financial institutions is to assess the strength of the fiscal accounts solely on the basis of the cash deficit. Short-term cash flows matter, but a preponderant focus on them can encourage governments to invest too little, especially during episodes of fiscal tightening. This has potentially adverse consequences for growth and, paradoxically, even for fiscal solvency itself. The paper offers an overview of the links between fiscal targets, public investment, and public sector solvency. After reviewing the international experience with public investment under fiscal adjustment, the paper lays out an analytical framework to illustrate the consequences of using the public deficit as a guide to solvency. The paper then discusses some alternatives to conventional cash deficit rules and their implications for investment and fiscal solvency.

This book, co-authored by the Nobel-prized economist, Kenneth Arrow, considers public expenditures in the context of modern growth theory. It analyzes optimal growth with public capital. A theory of 'controllability' is developed and injected into public economics and growth models. Originally published in 1970

This work analyzes the impact of fiscal policy on the growth rate of market economies. Two frameworks are considered: in the first, human capital is seen as a by-product of gross investment; in the second, government is seen to influence growth by investing in public capital.