Fiscal Policy And The Natural Resources Curse

It is widely accepted that natural resource wealth, especially in the form of oil and minerals, can be a key factor in inhibiting economic development. Many of the countries that are richest in natural resources – including oil, metals and diamonds – are amongst the world’s poorest. Why? Fiscal Policy and the Natural Resources Curse re-examines this ancient, unsolved puzzle, asking why many governments of natural resource-intensive countries are incapable, in a globalised world, of dealing with the natural-resource curse. This book offers a detailed analysis of the power-relationships which underpin the natural resource curse, using both statistical analysis and country case studies from Africa and Latin America to pinpoint the strategies that have enable developing countries to break out of the poverty trap. The book differs from other works on this subject, as it not only identifies the issues at stake but also offers solutions in the form of a series of suggested policy measures. The work focusses in particular on fiscal escape routes, namely measures to develop and diversify the tax system, and to reallocate and target public expenditure. This volume will be of great interest to scholars of economic development, the economics of natural resources and economic growth as well as all those with an interest in development, global politics and anti-poverty policies.

It is widely accepted that natural resource wealth, especially in the form of oil and minerals, can be a key factor in inhibiting economic development. Many of the countries that are richest in natural resources – including oil, metals and diamonds – are amongst the world’s poorest. Why? Fiscal Policy and the Natural Resources Curse re-examines this ancient, unsolved puzzle, asking why many governments of natural resource-intensive countries are incapable, in a globalised world, of dealing with the natural-resource curse. This book offers a detailed analysis of the power-relationships which underpin the natural resource curse, using both statistical analysis and country case studies from Africa and Latin America to pinpoint the strategies that have enable developing countries to break out of the poverty trap. The book differs from other works on this subject, as it not only identifies the issues at stake but also offers solutions in the form of a series of suggested policy measures. The work focusses in particular on fiscal escape routes, namely measures to develop and diversify the tax system, and to reallocate and target public expenditure. This volume will be of great interest to scholars of economic development, the economics of natural resources and economic growth as well as all those with an interest in development, global politics and anti-poverty policies.

Public policies in taxation and revenue management are key to ensuring natural resource wealth results in economic development. Tax policy and systems should ensure that whenever natural resources are extracted, the host state receives a fair share of revenue. Revenue management policies are required to ensure that government revenues from natural resources are wisely used to finance sustainable economic development. This Economic Paper analyses key issues in natural resource taxation and revenue management and recommends policies that can improve countries’ economic performance. The discussion draws on economic theory, empirical evidence and the work of the Commonwealth Secretariat.

The political economy of natural resource wealth poses two interrelated challenges for American foreign policy, both involving governance issues in countries that are abundantly endowed with natural resources. The potentially negative impact of natural resources on development is captured in the phrase "the resource curse". The implications are the greatest for the commodity producers themselves, ranging from complications for macroeconomic management to political authoritarianism and, in the extreme, the precipitation of violent civil conflict. For US policy, the resource curse presents challenges with respect to coping with state failure and associated transborder phenomena. The issues extend to broader geopolitics. Resource abundance confers financial and political power on producers. China's emergence as a major importer and investor in extraction, willing to accommodate authoritarian producers, exacerbates the challenge, potentially undercutting international efforts to encourage greater transparency and improved management of natural resource wealth. This issue is of particular importance for US policy toward Africa

While models based on Friedman's (1957) permanent-income hypothesis can provide oilproducing countries with long-run fiscal targets, they usually abstract from short-run costs associated with consolidation. This paper proposes a model that takes such adjustment costs (or "habits") into account. Further operational realism is added by permitting differential interest rates on sovereign debt and financial assets. The approach is applied to Gabon, where oil reserves are expected to be exhausted in 30 years. The results suggest that Gabon's current fiscal-policy stance cannot be maintained, while the presence of habits justifies smoothing the bulk of the adjustment toward the sustainable level over three to five years.

This paper investigates the dynamic impact of natural resource discoveries on government debt sustainability. We use a 'natural experiment' framework in which the timing of discoveries is treated as an exogenous source of within-country variation. We combine data on government debt, fiscal stress and debt distress episodes on a large panel of countries over 1970-2012, with a global repository of giant oil, gas, and mineral discoveries. We find strong and robust evidence of a 'fiscal presource curse', i.e., natural resources can jeopardize fiscal sustainability even before 'the first drop of oil is pumped'. Specifically, we find that giant discoveries, mostly of oil and gas, lead to permanently higher government debt and, eventually, debt distress episodes, specially in countries with weaker political institutions and governance. This evidence suggest that the curse can be mitigated and even prevented by pursuing prudent fiscal policies and borrowing strategies, strengthening fiscal governance, and implementing transparent and robust fiscal frameworks for resource management.

Some scholars have argued that direct distribution of natural resource revenues to the population would help resource-rich countries escape the “resource curse.” This discussion note analyzes whether this proposal is a viable policy alternative for resource-rich countries. The first priority for policymakers is to establish fiscal policy objectives to support macroeconomic stability and development objectives. In this regard, the establishment of an adequate fiscal framework that informs decisions on how much to save and invest, or how to smooth out revenue volatility, and deal with exhaustibility issues should precede any discussion of direct distribution of resource wealth to the population.

This volume focuses on the political economy surrounding the detailed decisions that governments make at each step of the value chain for natural resource management. From the perspective of public interest or good governance, many resource-dependent developing countries pursue apparently short-sighted and sub-optimal policies in relation to the extraction and capture of resource rents, and to spending and savings from their resource endowments. This work contextualizes these micro-level choices and outcomes.