Fiscal Policy Multipliers In Small States
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Fiscal Policy Multipliers in Small States
Author | : Ali Alichi,Mr.Ippei Shibata,Kadir Tanyeri |
Publsiher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 39 |
Release | : 2019-03-26 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9781498303996 |
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Government debt in many small states has risen beyond sustainable levels and some governments are considering fiscal consolidation. This paper estimates fiscal policy multipliers for small states using two distinct models: an empirical forecast error model with data from 23 small states across the world; and a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model calibrated to a hypothetical small state’s economy. The results suggest that fiscal policy using government current primary spending is ineffective, but using government investment is very potent in small states in affecting the level of their GDP over the medium term. These results are robust to different model specifications and characteristics of small states. Inability to affect GDP using current primary spending could be frustrating for policymakers when an expansionary policy is needed, but encouraging at the current juncture when many governments are considering fiscal consolidation. For the short term, however, multipliers for government current primary spending are larger and affected by imports as share of GDP, level of government debt, and position of the economy in the business cycle, among other factors.
The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity
Author | : Richard Hemming,Selma Mahfouz,Michael Kell |
Publsiher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 60 |
Release | : 2002-12 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : UCSD:31822032179210 |
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This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.
Fiscal Policy Multipliers in Small States
Author | : Ali Alichi,Mr.Ippei Shibata,Kadir Tanyeri |
Publsiher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 39 |
Release | : 2019-03-26 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9781498305488 |
Download Fiscal Policy Multipliers in Small States Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Government debt in many small states has risen beyond sustainable levels and some governments are considering fiscal consolidation. This paper estimates fiscal policy multipliers for small states using two distinct models: an empirical forecast error model with data from 23 small states across the world; and a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model calibrated to a hypothetical small state’s economy. The results suggest that fiscal policy using government current primary spending is ineffective, but using government investment is very potent in small states in affecting the level of their GDP over the medium term. These results are robust to different model specifications and characteristics of small states. Inability to affect GDP using current primary spending could be frustrating for policymakers when an expansionary policy is needed, but encouraging at the current juncture when many governments are considering fiscal consolidation. For the short term, however, multipliers for government current primary spending are larger and affected by imports as share of GDP, level of government debt, and position of the economy in the business cycle, among other factors.
Fiscal Multipliers
Author | : Nicoletta Batini,Luc Eyraud,Lorenzo Forni,Anke Weber |
Publsiher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 33 |
Release | : 2014-10-02 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9781498322430 |
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Fiscal multipliers are important tools for macroeconomic projections and policy design. In many countries, little is known about the size of multipliers, as data availability limits the scope for empirical research. This note provides general guidance on the definition, measurement, and use of fiscal multipliers. It reviews the literature related to their size, persistence and determinants. For countries where no reliable estimate is available, the note proposes a simple method to come up with reasonable values. Finally, the note presents options to incorporate multipliers in macroeconomic forecasts.
How Big Small are Fiscal Multipliers
Author | : Ethan Ilzetzki,Mr.Enrique G. Mendoza,Mr.Carlos A. Végh Gramont |
Publsiher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 68 |
Release | : 2011-03-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9781455218028 |
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We contribute to the intense debate on the real effects of fiscal stimuli by showing that the impact of government expenditure shocks depends crucially on key country characteristics, such as the level of development, exchange rate regime, openness to trade, and public indebtedness. Based on a novel quarterly dataset of government expenditure in 44 countries, we find that (i) the output effect of an increase in government consumption is larger in industrial than in developing countries, (ii) the fisscal multiplier is relatively large in economies operating under predetermined exchange rate but zero in economies operating under flexible exchange rates; (iii) fiscal multipliers in open economies are lower than in closed economies and (iv) fiscal multipliers in high-debt countries are also zero.
Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis
Author | : Alberto Alesina,Francesco Giavazzi |
Publsiher | : University of Chicago Press |
Total Pages | : 596 |
Release | : 2013-06-25 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9780226018447 |
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The recent recession has brought fiscal policy back to the forefront, with economists and policy makers struggling to reach a consensus on highly political issues like tax rates and government spending. At the heart of the debate are fiscal multipliers, whose size and sensitivity determine the power of such policies to influence economic growth. Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis focuses on the effects of fiscal stimuli and increased government spending, with contributions that consider the measurement of the multiplier effect and its size. In the face of uncertainty over the sustainability of recent economic policies, further contributions to this volume discuss the merits of alternate means of debt reduction through decreased government spending or increased taxes. A final section examines how the short-term political forces driving fiscal policy might be balanced with aspects of the long-term planning governing monetary policy. A direct intervention in timely debates, Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis offers invaluable insights about various responses to the recent financial crisis.
Asia and Pacific Small States Monitor August 2014
Author | : Ms.Shari Boyce,Mr.Sergei Dodzin,Ezequiel Cabezon,Mr.Fazurin Jamaludin,Mr.Yiqun Wu,Ms.Rosanne Heller |
Publsiher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 14 |
Release | : 2014-08-01 |
Genre | : Nature |
ISBN | : 9781498312035 |
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This issue of the Asia & Pacific Small States Monitor focuses on the challenges facing Asia and Pacific small states associated with natural disasters and climate change. Most tourism-oriented economies experienced a robust increase in arrivals, partly reflecting country-specific factors. Among commodity exporters (Bhutan, Solomon Islands, and Timor-Leste) and other Asia and Pacific small states, growth remains uneven: robust activity in Bhutan was driven mainly by hydropower-related construction activities; Solomon Islands experienced a continuing decline of logging stocks and a short-term disruption of gold production; and Timor-Leste’s ongoing depletion of oil reserves has led to a tighter budget constraint and lower government spending in the non-oil sector.
Managing the Sovereign Bank Nexus
Author | : Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia,Caio Ferreira,Nigel Jenkinson,Mr.Luc Laeven,Alberto Martin,Ms.Camelia Minoiu,Alex Popov |
Publsiher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 54 |
Release | : 2018-09-07 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9781484359624 |
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This paper reviews empirical and theoretical work on the links between banks and their governments (the bank-sovereign nexus). How significant is this nexus? What do we know about it? To what extent is it a source of concern? What is the role of policy intervention? The paper concludes with a review of recent policy proposals.