Fiscal Sustainability

The health systems we enjoy today, and expected medical advances in the future, will be difficult to finance from public resources without major reforms. Public health spending in OECD countries has grown rapidly over most of the last half century. These spending increases have contributed to ...

Topics discussed in this publication include: an introduction to theoretical and practical aspects of fiscal sustainability; theoretical prerequisites for fiscal sustainability analysis; debt indicators in the measurement of vulnerability; cyclical adjustment of budget surplus; pro-cyclical fiscal policy using Mexico's fiscal accounts as a case study; fiscal rules and the experience of Chile; currency crises and models for deal with financing costs.

This paper critically reviews recent work regarding the sustainability of public debt. It argues that Debt Sustainability Analyses (DSAs) should be more than mere mechanical simulation exercises. Instead, a DSA should be linked to some objective regarding the distribution of fiscal burdens and distortions over time (in the tradition of Barro’s 1979 tax smoothing objective). The paper discusses objective functions that yield simple and transparent fiscal policy rules.

This book analyses the methods used to assess financial sustainability as defined by the International Federation of Accountants (IFAC). Recently, there have been calls to consider sustainability as a fundamental guiding principle in public management. The financial and economic crisis has spurred a demand for greater financial sustainability in public administrations. Although the concept of sustainability has been traditionally associated with three dimensions (environmental, social and economic), this book is focuses on the metrics used to evaluate financial sustainability and explores the concept of financial health. It will be of interest to researchers and academics in the field of financial sustainability.

This paper assesses the cyclicality and sustainability of fiscal policy in Belize and applies a stochastic simulation model to determine the optimal set of fiscal rules. The empirical analysis shows that fiscal policy in Belize has been significantly procyclical and unsustainable much of the period since 1976. While the government’s recent commitment to maintain a primary surplus of at least 2 percent of GDP until 2021 is supporting debt reduction, stochastic simulations indicate that further improvement in the primary balance is necessary to reliably bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to a sustainable path. Given Belize’s history of large economic shocks, this paper proposes explicit fiscal rules designed for countercyclical policy and debt sustainability. It recommends integrating such rules into a well-designed fiscal responsibility law and establishing an independent fiscal council to improve accountability and transparency.

The Fiscal Sustainability of Health Care - the first of a three-volume set of selected papers from the Romanow Commission - comprises the most influential discussion papers on the fiscal sustainability of public health care in the future. The subjects covered include the current and potential cost drivers of the system, the financing and delivery of health care, fiscal federalism, and international trade regimes. While some of the contributors are among Canada's best known and respected figures in the field, others are relatively new scholars from Canada and abroad who bring fresh perspectives and new insights to the issue of fiscal sustainability. Presenting divergent diagnoses and policy prescriptions, the papers collectively highlight the many factors that governments and health care sector managers must confront to keep the Canadian health care system viable in the 21st century.

This paper assesses the usefulness of summary measures of fiscal sustainability for the purpose of multilateral surveillance. An overview of the main conceptual issues is first presented. Next, an assessment is made of the strengths and weaknesses of the summary measures in the context of their recent application to industrial countries by the OECD and the Fund. The measures are shown to highlight the inadequacy of using trends in public debt ratios to assess sustainability. However, the measures and their recent application are subject to a number of caveats, in particular in relation to their sensitivity to the discount rate, time paths of government expenditures and private sector behavior.

This paper assesses sustainable fiscal behavior in an economy where wealth is derived predominantly from a non-renewable resource. It explores the issue in a simple dynamic framework that highlights the structural weaknesses in the underlying budgetary position, takes into account the rate of depletion of a country’s natural resource base, and examines the impact of changes in a country’s terms of trade. An alternative indicator of fiscal sustainability is derived, and the principal factors determining sustainability are identified. The results of the analysis are applied to Venezuela and Kuwait.