Floating Exchange Rates In Developing Countries

In recent years, an increasing number of developing countries have adopted market-determined floating exchange rates. This development has represented a significant step forward in the evolution toward exchange rate flexibility that has taken place in the developing country group since the adoption of generalized floating by industrial countries in 1973.

The paper examines the behavior of daily spot exchange rates for a sample of industrialized countries which are generally considered to be floating with only occasional official foreign exchange market intervention. This behavior is then compared to the behavior of the exchange rates of a sample of sixteen developing countries whose regimes are often classified as being “flexible”. Considerable differences in the way these developing countries’ exchange rate regimes operate is apparent from the daily data, with some sharing similarities with the regimes of the industrialized countries and with others demonstrating regime shifts and other marked discontinuities.

Don ́t Fix, Don ́t Float is a book about credibility, or lack thereof. It deals with questions pertaining to international financial architecture from the perspective of developing countries, emerging markets and transition economies. Should the monetary authority fix the exchange rate of the national currency? Should it instead let the currency float in foreign exchange markets? What about bands, baskets and crawls between the fix and the float corners? Answering these questions is of significance to the national economy involved and, with regard to global finance, often beyond. In the same way that there may never be a pure float, even among key currencies, an instant fix does not provide a fast lane to credibility. Credibility is earned abroad as the development process reinforces institution building in monetary, financial and budgetary matters. Indeed, rules for budgetary adjustment (such as the zero deficit in Argentina or the EU Stability and Growth Pact) are necessary for any exchange-rate regime to deliver economic growth and development. In Don ́t Fix, Don ́t Float, the case for intermediate regimes is made for five country groups in Africa, Asia and Latin America. Developing countries, emerging markets and transition economies, together with the OECD area, are facing the consequences of a worsening global economic outlook. In this environment, the development perspective underlying Don t Fix, Don t Float is clearly essential.

Analyzes developments in the international monetary system since 1973, with anew added epilogue.

In spite of the attention paid exchange rates in recent economic debates on developing countries, relatively few studies have systematically analyzed in detail the various ramifications of exchange rate policy in these countries. In this new volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research, leading economists use rigorous models to tackle various exchange rate issues, while also illuminating policy implications that emerge from their analyses. The volume, divided into four main sections, addresses: the role of exchange rates in stabilization programs and the adjustment process; the importance of exchange rate policy during liberalization reform in developing countries; exchange rate problems relevant and unique to developing countries, illustrated by case studies; and the problems defining, measuring, and identifying determinants of real exchange rates. Authors of individual papers examine the relation between commercial policies and exchange rates, the role of exchange rate policy in stabilization programs, the effectiveness of devaluations as a policy tool, and the interaction between exchange rate terms of trade an capital flow. This research will not only prove crucial to our understanding of the role of exchange rates in developing countries, but will clearly set the standard for future work in the field.

This article analyzes the theory of equilibrium real exchange rates and defines misalignment as a deviation of the real exchange rate (RER) from its equilibrium level. The role of macroeconomic policies is then analyzed under three alternative nominal exchange rate regimes: predetermined nominal exchange rates; floating nominal rates; and dual or black market nominal exchange rates. This discussion points out how inconsistent macroeconomic policies often lead to real exchange rate misalignment. Corrective measures, including nominal devaluation and several alternative approaches, are then evaluated.