Forecasting Mexico S Democratic Transition

This volume captures the essence of the political environment leading up to Mexico's July 2000 presidential election as well as the more enduring lessons learned in relationship to Mexican politics and U.S. Mexico policy.

Transitions from authoritarian to democratic governments can provide ripe scenarios for the emergence of new, insurgent political actors and causes. During peaceful transitions, such movements may become influential political players and gain representation for previously neglected interests and sectors of the population. But for this to happen, insurgent social movements need opportunities for mobilization, success, and survival. This book looks at Mexico'sZapatista movement, and why the movement was able to mobilize sympathy and support for the indigenous agenda inside and outside of the country, yet failed to achieve their goals vis-à-vis the Mexican state.

Based on a detailed study of 35 cases in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and post-communist Eurasia, this book explores the fate of competitive authoritarian regimes between 1990 and 2008. It finds that where social, economic, and technocratic ties to the West were extensive, as in Eastern Europe and the Americas, the external cost of abuse led incumbents to cede power rather than crack down, which led to democratization. Where ties to the West were limited, external democratizing pressure was weaker and countries rarely democratized. In these cases, regime outcomes hinged on the character of state and ruling party organizations. Where incumbents possessed developed and cohesive coercive party structures, they could thwart opposition challenges, and competitive authoritarian regimes survived; where incumbents lacked such organizational tools, regimes were unstable but rarely democratized.

Since achieving independence from Spain and establishing its first constitution in 1824, Mexico has experienced numerous political upheavals. The country's long and turbulent journey toward democratic, representative government has been marked by a tension between centralized, autocratic governments (historically depicted as a legacy of colonial institutions) and federalist structures. The years since Mexico's independence have seen a major violent social revolution, years of authoritarian rule, and, finally, in the past two decades, the introduction of a fair and democratic electoral process. Over the course of the thirty-one essays in The Oxford Handbook of Mexican Politics some of the world's leading scholars of Mexico will provide a comprehensive view of the remarkable transformation of the nation's political system to a democratic model. In turn they will assess the most influential institutions, actors, policies and issues in its current evolution toward democratic consolidation. Following an introduction by Roderic Ai Camp, sections will explore the current state of Mexico's political development; transformative political institutions; the changing roles of the military, big business, organized labor, and the national political elite; new political actors including the news media, indigenous movements, women, and drug traffickers; electoral politics; demographics and political attitudes; and policy issues.

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Transitions from authoritarian to democratic governments can provide ripe scenarios for the emergence of new, insurgent political actors and causes. During peaceful transitions, such movements may become influential political players and gain representation for previously neglected interests and sectors of the population. But for this to happen, insurgent social movements need opportunities for mobilization, success, and survival. What happens to insurgent social movements that emerge during a democratic transition but fail to achieve their goals? How influential are they? Are they able to survive their initial mobilizing boom? To answer these questions, María Inclán looks at Mexico's Zapatista movement, whose emergence she argues was caught between "sliding doors" of opportunity. The Zapatistas were able to mobilize sympathy and support for the indigenous agenda inside and outside of the country, yet failed to achieve their goals vis-à-vis the Mexican state. Nevertheless, the movement has survived and sustained its autonomy despite lacking legal recognition. Inclán examines the vitality of the movement during various tests of the emergent democracy (during more competitive elections, under various political parties, and amid various repressive measures). She also looks at state responsiveness to movement demands and the role of transnational networks in the movement's survival. Framing the relative achievements and failures of the Zapatista movement within Mexico's democratization is essential to understand how social movements develop and survive and how responsive an electoral democracy really is. As such, this book offers a test to the quality of Mexico's democracy and to the resilience of the Zapatista movement, as it identifies the extent to which emerging political forces have failed to incorporate dissident and previously excluded political actors into the new polity.

The editors of this collection of sixteen articles argue the relationship between the United States and Mexico is at its most tenuous in recent memory. Each article explores the future of US-Mexico relations, focusing on relevant topics such as trade, water, drugs, health, immigration, environmental issues and security. Employing a strategic foresight methodology, the authors use past trends and identify pivotal drivers to predict, based on indicators, at least three possible outcomes for the next few decades: a baseline or continuity scenario, an optimistic version and a pessimistic one. They also articulate the implications each forecast has for both nations. Most chapters are co-written by a scholar from the United States and another from Mexico. While acknowledging it is impossible to predict the future, they nonetheless describe what could occur. Ultimately, the authors of the articles in this fascinating volume make recommendations to achieve a peaceful, integrated and prosperous North America that will drive the world economy. The book is required reading for anyone interested in the binational relationship and the well-being of citizens in both countries.