Forecasts And Environmental Decision Making

This book evaluates the predictive accuracy of the forecasts in a sample of federal environmental impact statements. It examines a major federal attempt to impose rationalistic reforms on government decision makers and the first view of National Environmental Policy Act reforms.

An authoritative and accessible introduction to the concepts and tools needed to make ecology a more predictive science Ecologists are being asked to respond to unprecedented environmental challenges. How can they provide the best available scientific information about what will happen in the future? Ecological Forecasting is the first book to bring together the concepts and tools needed to make ecology a more predictive science. Ecological Forecasting presents a new way of doing ecology. A closer connection between data and models can help us to project our current understanding of ecological processes into new places and times. This accessible and comprehensive book covers a wealth of topics, including Bayesian calibration and the complexities of real-world data; uncertainty quantification, partitioning, propagation, and analysis; feedbacks from models to measurements; state-space models and data fusion; iterative forecasting and the forecast cycle; and decision support. Features case studies that highlight the advances and opportunities in forecasting across a range of ecological subdisciplines, such as epidemiology, fisheries, endangered species, biodiversity, and the carbon cycle Presents a probabilistic approach to prediction and iteratively updating forecasts based on new data Describes statistical and informatics tools for bringing models and data together, with emphasis on: Quantifying and partitioning uncertainties Dealing with the complexities of real-world data Feedbacks to identifying data needs, improving models, and decision support Numerous hands-on activities in R available online

This book is unique in identifying and presenting tools to environmental decision-makers to help them improve the quality and clarity of their work. These tools range from software to policy approaches, and from environmental databases to focus groups. Equally of value to environmental managers, and students in environmental risk, policy, economics and law.

With the growing number, complexity, and importance of environmental problems come demands to include a full range of intellectual disciplines and scholarly traditions to help define and eventually manage such problems more effectively. Decision Making for the Environment: Social and Behavioral Science Research Priorities is the result of a 2-year effort by 12 social and behavioral scientists, scholars, and practitioners. The report sets research priorities for the social and behavioral sciences as they relate to several different kinds of environmental problems.

Based upon ten case studies, Prediction explores how science-based predictions guide policy making and what this means in terms of global warming, biogenetically modifying organisms and polluting the environment with chemicals.

This title was first published in 2000: Sustainable development offers visions of the future, but implementation of new sustainable policies seems slow. This text presents a forecasting method directed to overcome some barriers to the implementation of more sustainable economic policy. Using a case study, the authors describe how economic and environmental forecasts can be developed that are relevant to the immediate concerns of policy-makers and are more likely to lead to policy changes. A combination of forecasting methods are shown to evaluate a range of current alternatives in the future. Similar techniques have been used in developing countries, but here the techniques are applied to an already industrialized economy.