Fossil Energy Update

This book is a reality check of where energy will come from in the future. Today, our economy is utterly dependent on fossil fuels. They are essential to transportation, manufacturing, farming, electricity, and to make fertilizers, cement, steel, roads, cars, and half a million other products. One day, sooner or later, fossil fuels will no longer be abundant and affordable. Inevitably, one day, global oil production will decline. That time may be nearer than we realize. Some experts predict oil shortages as soon as 2022 to 2030. What then are our options for replacing the fossil fuels that turn the great wheel of civilization? Surveying the arsenal of alternatives – wind, solar, hydrogen, geothermal, nuclear, batteries, catenary systems, fusion, methane hydrates, power2gas, wave, tidal power and biomass – this book examines whether they can replace or supplement fossil fuels. The book also looks at substitute energy sources from the standpoint of the energy users. Manufacturing, which uses half of fossil fuels, often requires very high heat, which in many cases electricity can't provide. Industry uses fossil fuels as a feedstock for countless products, and must find substitutes. And, as detailed in the author's previous book, "When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation," ships, locomotives, and heavy-duty trucks are fueled by diesel. What can replace diesel? Taking off the rose-colored glasses, author Alice Friedemann analyzes our options. What alternatives should we deploy right now? Which technologies merit further research and development? Which are mere wishful thinking that, upon careful scrutiny, dematerialize before our eyes? Fossil fuels have allowed billions of us to live like kings. Fueled by oil, coal, and natural gas, we changed the equation constraining the carrying capacity of our planet. As fossil fuels peak and then decline, will we fall back to Earth? Are there viable alternatives?

This paper provides a comprehensive global, regional, and country-level update of: (i) efficient fossil fuel prices to reflect their full private and social costs; and (ii) subsidies implied by mispricing fuels. The methodology improves over previous IMF analyses through more sophisticated estimation of costs and impacts of reform. Globally, fossil fuel subsidies were $5.9 trillion in 2020 or about 6.8 percent of GDP, and are expected to rise to 7.4 percent of GDP in 2025. Just 8 percent of the 2020 subsidy reflects undercharging for supply costs (explicit subsidies) and 92 percent for undercharging for environmental costs and foregone consumption taxes (implicit subsidies). Efficient fuel pricing in 2025 would reduce global carbon dioxide emissions 36 percent below baseline levels, which is in line with keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees, while raising revenues worth 3.8 percent of global GDP and preventing 0.9 million local air pollution deaths. Accompanying spreadsheets provide detailed results for 191 countries.

This paper updates estimates of fossil fuel subsidies, defined as fuel consumption times the gap between existing and efficient prices (i.e., prices warranted by supply costs, environmental costs, and revenue considerations), for 191 countries. Globally, subsidies remained large at $4.7 trillion (6.3 percent of global GDP) in 2015 and are projected at $5.2 trillion (6.5 percent of GDP) in 2017. The largest subsidizers in 2015 were China ($1.4 trillion), United States ($649 billion), Russia ($551 billion), European Union ($289 billion), and India ($209 billion). About three quarters of global subsidies are due to domestic factors—energy pricing reform thus remains largely in countries’ own national interest—while coal and petroleum together account for 85 percent of global subsidies. Efficient fossil fuel pricing in 2015 would have lowered global carbon emissions by 28 percent and fossil fuel air pollution deaths by 46 percent, and increased government revenue by 3.8 percent of GDP.

Ending the fossil fuel industry is the only credible path for climate policy Around the world, countries and companies are setting net-zero carbon emissions targets. But what will it mean if those targets are achieved? One possibility is that fossil fuel companies will continue to produce billions of tons of atmospheric CO2 while relying on a symbiotic industry to scrub the air clean. Focusing on emissions draws our attention away from the real problem: the point of production. The fossil fuel industry must come to an end but will not depart willingly; governments must intervene. By embracing a politics of rural-urban coalitions and platform governance, climate advocates can build the political power needed to nationalize the fossil fuel industry and use its resources to draw carbon out of the atmosphere.

Concerns over energy resources and the environmental impact of energy use will continue to be part of the polical agenda across the globe. World Scientific's unique series of books on Current Energy Issues is intended, in part, as an expansion and update of the material contained in the World Scientific Handbook of Energy but in part each volume will focus on related energy resources or issues that contain a broader range of topics plus more explanatory text than was possible in the Handbook. The authors will also take the opportunity to update the data presented in the Handbook since in many cases the field is rapidly changing. The Fossil Fuels volume focuses on the main fossil resources, viz. coal, oil and natural gas. Coal is still an extremely important resource especially for electricity production around the world and the book discussed methods for making coal a cleaner resource, including carbon sequestration. There has been a rapid change in the mix of fossil fuels mainly because of hydraulic fracturing which enables oil and gas to be extracted from previously inaccessible formations. The book describes this changing situation including the precautions required to make the production of these fuels safe and environmentally benign. Alternative fossil fuels such as methane hydrates are also discussed. Contents:Coal Resources, Production, and Use Worldwide (Thomas Sarkus and William Ellis)Coal Gasification and Advances in Clean Coal Technology (Thomas Sarkus and Adrian Radziwon)Geologic Carbon Storage (Thomas Sarkus, Michael Tennyson and Derek Vikara)Environmental Impacts of Coal Production (Thomas Sarkus and William Ellis)Petroleum Liquids (William L Fisher and Christopher G St C Kendall)Unconventional Petroleum Liquids: Tar Sands and Shale Oil (Vello A Kuuskraa)Oil Spills: Causes, Consequences, Prevention, and Countermeasures (Jacqueline Michel and Merv Fingas)Natural Gas (John B Curtis)Hydraulic Fracturing (Randy F LaFollette and Robert Samuel Hurt)Methane Hydrates (Yoshihiro Masuda, Tsutomu Uchida, Sadao Nagakubo and Mikio Satoh) Readership: Scientists, engineers, policy makers, graduate students and researchers on the field of energy studies.

The word sustainability shares its root with sustenance. In the context of modern society, sustenance is inextricably linked to the use of energy. Fossil Energy provides an authoritative reference on all aspects of this key resource, which currently represents nearly 85% of global energy consumption. Gathering 16 peer-reviewed entries from the Encyclopedia of Sustainability Science and Technology, the chapters provide comprehensive, yet concise coverage of fundamentals and current areas of research. Written by recognized authorities in the field, this volume represents an essential resource for scientists and engineers working on the development of energy resources, fossil or alternative, and reflects the essential role of energy supplies in supporting a sustainable future.