Fuzzy Probabilities

In probability and statistics we often have to estimate probabilities and parameters in probability distributions using a random sample. Instead of using a point estimate calculated from the data we propose using fuzzy numbers which are constructed from a set of confidence intervals. In probability calculations we apply constrained fuzzy arithmetic because probabilities must add to one. Fuzzy random variables have fuzzy distributions. A fuzzy normal random variable has the normal distribution with fuzzy number mean and variance. Applications are to queuing theory, Markov chains, inventory control, decision theory and reliability theory.

1.1 Introduction This book is written in five major divisions. The first part is the introduc tory chapters consisting of Chapters 1-3. In part two, Chapters 4-10, we use fuzzy probabilities to model a fuzzy queuing system . We switch to employ ing fuzzy arrival rates and fuzzy service rates to model the fuzzy queuing system in part three in Chapters 11 and 12. Optimization models comprise part four in Chapters 13-17. The final part has a brief summary and sug gestions for future research in Chapter 18, and a summary of our numerical methods for calculating fuzzy probabilities, values of objective functions in fuzzy optimization, etc., is in Chapter 19. First we need to be familiar with fuzzy sets. All you need to know about fuzzy sets for this book comprises Chapter 2. Two other items relating to fuzzy sets, needed in Chapters 13-17, are also in Chapter 2: (1) how we plan to handle the maximum/minimum of a fuzzy set; and (2) how we will rank a finite collection of fuzzy numbers from smallest to largest.

This book combines material from our previous books FP (Fuzzy Probabilities: New Approach and Applications,Physica-Verlag, 2003) and FS (Fuzzy Statistics, Springer, 2004), plus has about one third new results. From FP we have material on basic fuzzy probability, discrete (fuzzy Poisson,binomial) and continuous (uniform, normal, exponential) fuzzy random variables. From FS we included chapters on fuzzy estimation and fuzzy hypothesis testing related to means, variances, proportions, correlation and regression. New material includes fuzzy estimators for arrival and service rates, and the uniform distribution, with applications in fuzzy queuing theory. Also, new to this book, is three chapters on fuzzy maximum entropy (imprecise side conditions) estimators producing fuzzy distributions and crisp discrete/continuous distributions. Other new results are: (1) two chapters on fuzzy ANOVA (one-way and two-way); (2) random fuzzy numbers with applications to fuzzy Monte Carlo studies; and (3) a fuzzy nonparametric estimator for the median.

Probabilists and fuzzy enthusiasts tend to disagree about which philosophy is best and they rarely work together. As a result, textbooks usually suggest only one of these methods for problem solving, but not both. This book is an exception. The authors, investigators from both fields, have combined their talents to provide a practical guide showing that both fuzzy logic and probability have their place in the world of problem solving. They work together with mutual benefit for both disciplines, providing scientists and engineers with examples of and insight into the best tool for solving problems involving uncertainty. Fuzzy Logic and Probability Applications: Bridging the Gap makes an honest effort to show both the shortcomings and benefits of each technique, and even demonstrates useful combinations of the two. It provides clear descriptions of both fuzzy logic and probability, as well as the theoretical background, examples, and applications from both fields, making it a useful hands-on workbook for members of both camps. It contains enough theory and references to fundamental work to provide firm ground for both engineers and scientists at the undergraduate level and above. Readers should have a familiarity with mathematics through calculus.

This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the Third International Conference on Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge Discovery, FSKD 2006, held in federation with the Second International Conference on Natural Computation ICNC 2006. The book presents 115 revised full papers and 50 revised short papers. Coverage includes neural computation, quantum computation, evolutionary computation, DNA computation, fuzzy computation, granular computation, artificial life, innovative applications to knowledge discovery, finance, operations research, and more.

Nowadays, voluminous textbooks and monographs in fuzzy logic are devoted only to separate or some combination of separate facets of fuzzy logic. There is a lack of a single book that presents a comprehensive and self-contained theory of fuzzy logic and its applications. Written by world renowned authors, Lofti Zadeh, also known as the Father of Fuzzy Logic, and Rafik Aliev, who are pioneers in fuzzy logic and fuzzy sets, this unique compendium includes all the principal facets of fuzzy logic such as logical, fuzzy-set-theoretic, epistemic and relational. Theoretical problems are prominently illustrated and illuminated by numerous carefully worked-out and thought-through examples. This invaluable volume will be a useful reference guide for academics, practitioners, graduates and undergraduates in fuzzy logic and its applications.

FLINS -- an for fuzzy logic and intelligent acronym technologies in nuclear science -- is a well-established international research forum for advancing the theory and applications of computational intelligence for applied research in general and nuclear science and engineering in particular. The proceedings of FLINS 2002 covers state-of-the-art research and development in computational intelligence for applied research.

Provides readers with the foundations of fuzzy mathematics as well as more advanced topics A Modern Introduction to Fuzzy Mathematics provides a concise presentation of fuzzy mathematics., moving from proofs of important results to more advanced topics, like fuzzy algebras, fuzzy graph theory, and fuzzy topologies. The authors take the reader through the development of the field of fuzzy mathematics, starting with the publication in 1965 of Lotfi Asker Zadeh's seminal paper, Fuzzy Sets. The book begins with the basics of fuzzy mathematics before moving on to more complex topics, including: Fuzzy sets Fuzzy numbers Fuzzy relations Possibility theory Fuzzy abstract algebra And more Perfect for advanced undergraduate students, graduate students, and researchers with an interest in the field of fuzzy mathematics, A Modern Introduction to Fuzzy Mathematics walks through both foundational concepts and cutting-edge, new mathematics in the field.