General Equilibrium Trade Policy Modeling

The authors' model is the first large-scale computer simulation of the effects of changes in U.S. import quotas.

This collection of original essays makes a substantial contribution to the empirical analysis of trade policy and to the current debate on a new international economic order. They address policy from a strictly economic viewpoint, using computable general equilibrium models as analytical tools and assessing the strengths and weaknesses of these models, which are being increasingly used for policy analysis in international trade and other branches of economics. The essays all examine the effects of 50 percent tariff cuts on the various economies modeled. However, since some models are global (multicountry) and others are single country, such cuts can take several forms: unilateral, multilateral, or bilateral. The models show wide variation in their results. This points up the need for caution in using such models for rigid policy advice and for further improvement in data and techniques if trade modeling is to become effective. Nonetheless, the strength of such models in making explicit the implicit assumptions of policymakers and in providing a quantitative framework for trade policy evaluation is clearly revealed. T. N. Srinivasan, coauthor with Jagdish Bhagwati of Lectures on International Trade(MIT Press 1983) is Samuel C. Park Jr. Professor of Economics at Yale University. John Whalley, author of Trade Liberalization among Major World Trading Areas(MIT Press 1984) is Professor of Economics at the University of Western Ontario.

The book provides a hands-on introduction to computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, written at an accessible, undergraduate level.

Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) models have proven to be the tool of choice for analyzing the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). This collection contains the most important contributions to this burgeoning literature by many of the leading practitioners in the field. It also contains an extensive research survey, including comparisons of model dimensions, behavioral features, data sources, policy experiments, and main conclusions for policy. The volume contains a number of methodological advances in AGE modeling of trade policy.

Intends to present the developments in the methodology and practice of CGE techniques as they apply to various issues in international trade policy. This title is suitable for academic researchers working in trade policy analysis and applied general equilibrium, and advanced graduate students in international economics.

This book focuses on the World Bank projects, led by the author, based on computable general equilibrium models of international trade policy. The chapters show an unusual combination of policy relevance, advice and impact, with academic rigor and international trade theory insights. The author discusses some of the policy contexts for the requests from developing and transition countries to the World Bank, the key trade theory or policy insights, policy recommendations and conclusions, and the policy impacts. Contents:Introduction and OverviewTrade Policy: Quantitative Restraints, Foreign Exchange Surrender and Uniformity:Welfare Costs of US Quotas in Textiles, Steel and Autos (J de Melo and D G Tarr)Reforming Hungarian Agricultural Trade Policy: A Quantitative Evaluation (M Morkre and D G Tarr)Second-Best Foreign Exchange Policy in the Presence of Domestic Price Controls and Export Subsidies (D G Tarr)Trade Reform in the Partially Liberalized Economy of Turkey (G W Harrison, T F Rutherford and D G Tarr)Evaluating the Impact of Services and FDI with Endogenous Productivity Effects:The Impact of Liberalizing Barriers to Foreign Direct Investment in Services: The Case of Russian Accession to the World Trade Organization (J Jensen, T F Rutherford and D G Tarr)Regional Impacts of Liberalization of Barriers against Foreign Direct Investment in Services: The Case of Russia's Accession to the WTO (T F Rutherford and D G Tarr)Impact of Local Content Restrictions and Barriers Against Foreign Direct Investment in Services: The Case of Kazakhstan's Accession to the WTO (J Jensen and D G Tarr)Modeling Services Liberalization: The Case of Tanzania (J Jensen, T F Rutherford and D G Tarr)Trade and Poverty:Trade Policy and Poverty Reduction in Brazil (G W Harrison, T F Rutherford, D G Tarr and A Gurgel)Trade Liberalization, Poverty and Efficient Equity (G W Harrison, T F Rutherford and D G Tarr)Poverty Effects of Russia's WTO Accession: Modeling “Real” Households with Endogenous Productivity Effects (T F Rutherford and D G Tarr)Trade, Exchange Rate and Energy Pricing Reform in Iran: Potentially Large Efficiency Effects and Gains to the Poor (J Jensen and D G Tarr)Regionalism:Trade Policy Options for Chile: The Importance of Market Access (G W Harrison, T F Rutherford and D G Tarr) Readership: Students and the general public who are interested to learn about the key trade theories or policy insights of World Bank projects, policy recommendations and their impact. Keywords:International Trade Policy;Developing Countries;Computable General Equilibrium;World Bank;Regional Trade Policy;Services Liberalization;Foreign Direct Investment;Trade and PovertyKey Features:Cover computable general equilibrium modeling of trade policy in a wide range of countries and of the wide range of trade policy issues combined with the policy context and policy advice discussionAn unusual combination of policy relevance, advice and impact, with academic rigor and international trade theory insightsThe author has virtually incomparable experience in providing trade policy advice to more than 25 countries on behalf of the World Bank

In this collection of 17 articles, top scholars synthesize and analyze scholarship on this widely used tool of policy analysis, setting forth its accomplishments, difficulties, and means of implementation. Though CGE modeling does not play a prominent role in top US graduate schools, it is employed universally in the development of economic policy. This collection is particularly important because it presents a history of modeling applications and examines competing points of view. Presents coherent summaries of CGE theories that inform major model types Covers the construction of CGE databases, model solving, and computer-assisted interpretation of results Shows how CGE modeling has made a contribution to economic policy