Geoeconomic Fragmentation What S At Stake For The Eu

Geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF) is becoming entrenched worldwide, and the European Union (EU) is not immune to its effects. This paper takes stock of GEF policies impinging on—and adopted by—the EU and considers how exposed the EU is through trade, financial and technological channels. Motivated by current policies adopted by other countries, the paper then simulates how various measures—raising costs of trade and technology transfer and fossil fuel prices, and imposition of sectoral subsidies—would affect the EU economy. Due to its high-degree of openness, the EU is found to be exposed to GEF through multiple channels, with simulated losses that differ significantly across scenarios. From a welfare perspective, this suggests the need for a cautious approach to GEF policies. The EU’s best defence against GEF is to strengthen the Single Market while advocating for a multilateral rules-based trading system.

Strong policy responses have helped to mitigate the impact of the recent shocks. Output recovered rapidly from the pandemic and, in response to the energy price shock, the authorities made use of available fiscal room to mitigate its impact while preserving price signals to encourage lower gas consumption and taking steps to secure access to additional gas supplies. Despite these efforts, the economy slipped into recession over the last few quarters, with high energy prices, elevated inflation, and higher interest rates weighing on output and demand. Inflation still persists above the euro-area average even as it has steadily declined since January 2023, in particular as services inflation has proved to be sticky amid high wage growth. Over the medium term, demographic headwinds pose significant fiscal and growth challenges.

Output grew robustly in 2022 despite surging energy prices on the post-pandemic recovery and fiscal stimulus. Inflation jumped and the current account fell into deficit. Employment reached new highs. Fiscal support and higher borrowing costs kept deficits large and public debt very high. Bank credit has begun to decline although loan quality continues to hold up. Italy’s National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), supported by EU financial resources, aims to boost productivity and labor force participation, which would help offset the drag on growth from the declining working age population.

The euro area economy has shown resilience in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the largest terms of trade loss in several decades, reflecting strong policy efforts to secure gas supplies and cushion disposable incomes. Nonetheless, activity has weakened, with the economy slipping into a mild technical recession in early 2023, and inflation is far above target. While headline inflation has started to decline with the easing of supply bottlenecks and energy prices, core inflation is proving more persistent. Euro area banks are well capitalized and liquid overall, but the rapid tightening of monetary policy after a prolonged period of accommodation can expose pockets of weakness in the financial system, including in the nonbank sector.

Today, collective action on challenges ranging from climate change mitigation to peace and security is frustratingly slow or stymied altogether. Lack of trust and polarization--both associated with insecurity--exacerbate the gridlock. Shared, interlinked global challenges, like the pandemic and its recovery, are outpacing our willingness and our institutions’ capacities to respond to them. Why, despite all our riches and technologies, are we so stuck? How do we get unstuck? Is it possible to mobilize action to address globally shared challenges in a world that is intensively polarized? The 2023-2024 Human Development Report explores these issues and offers a platform for strategic discussion on how to move beyond narrow zero-sum thinking and support cooperation even as we have diverging interests and views. The e-book for this publication has been converted into an accessible format for the visually impaired and people with print reading disabilities. It is fully compatible with leading screen-reader technologies such as JAWS and NVDA.

This book brings together researchers from different analytical perspectives for the study of contemporary geoeconomics to create a broader and more useful catalogue of conceptual tools, empirical entry points, and case studies around the subject. The distinctive contribution this book offers is its firm rooting in International Political Economy and the hitherto under-researched geoeconomics dynamics of Europe. Many existing accounts of geoeconomics have been developed in International Relations and often reproduce some of the state-centric and static assumptions of the discipline. Recent scholarship furthermore tends to focus on the US-China rivalry, thus discounting the role of other global powers in shaping geoeconomics. As a first collective contribution to the topic in the field of International Political Economy, the book stands to become a major reference point in the field for the coming years. Interest in geoeconomics as well as in related concepts like weaponized interdependence or emerging new rivalries has been on the rise in recent years and will be one of the key research areas in the coming decade of transition and change in Europe and beyond. Chapters 1, 2 and 7 are available open access under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License via link.springer.com.