Global Crisis Remittances And Poverty In Asia

This publication presents a comprehensive discussion on the impact of the global financial crisis (2008–2009) on certain Asian economies at different levels of analysis---showcasing cross-country regression, computable general equilibrium modeling, and microeconometric modeling for Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Viet Nam. Using different measures of remittances, cross-country regression analyses suggest that a 10% increase in remittances leads to a 3%–4% rise in real gross domestic product per capita. At the same time, the analyses show that remittances exert a negative impact on aggregate poverty. Moreover, these money transfers from abroad exert important impacts on the macroeconomy that include improving external current accounts, alleviating debt burdens, appreciation of domestic currencies, and moderating inflation.

This publication showcases the beginnings of the People‘s Republic of China–Asian Development Bank knowledge sharing platform, its context, activities, challenges, and lessons learned. It concludes by mapping out the next steps to bring it to its strategic mission.

This publication examines the impact of the crisis among migrant workers and their families---with gender perspective---to provide useful information for better evidence-based policy making. Based on household surveys in Indonesia and the Philippines, the results show that women are in worse condition and are more vulnerable than men. Women migrants still have lower education and skills, reflected in their inferior jobs. They face greater difficulties in reintegration when they return, forcing them to return abroad. Women also bear a heavier burden due to their gendered role in the family, and those who stay are more often unemployed or in vulnerable employment. Moreover, despite strong views that the man should be the breadwinner and the one going abroad, the increasing feminization of current migration indicates that necessity is a strong push factor forcing more women to go abroad. These findings further strengthen the call for considering gender in migration policies.

This joint publication from the Asian Development Bank and the Asian Development Bank Institute features selected papers from the September 2009 conference on the social and environmental impact of the global economic crisis on Asia and the Pacific, especially on the poor and vulnerable. The publication is designed with the needs of policy makers in mind, utilizing field, country, and thematic background studies to cover a large number of countries and cases. This publication suggests that the crisis is an opportunity to rethink the model of development in Asia for growth to become more inclusive and sustainable. Issues that need to be more carefully considered include: closing the gap of dualistic labor markets, building up social protection systems, rationalizing social expenditures, addressing urban poverty through slum upgrading, promoting rural development through food security programs in pro-poor growth potential areas, and concentrating climate change interventions on generating direct benefits for the environments of the poor.

This book started with an objective to understand the impact of high inflation on poverty and food security in Southeast Asia. However, the global economy moved quickly into recession in 2008. Anticipating that the impact of global recession would be more severe than that of high inflation in Southeast Asia, we re-focused the title of the book to Poverty, Food, and Global Recession in Southeast Asia. By early 2010, people were already optimistic that the global recession was over or would be over soon. However, the evidence was mounting that the poor had suffered and were still suffering from the current global crisis, even if the richer individuals may have recovered. Therefore, an important question arises, Is the crisis really over for the poor? This then became the sub-title of this book. This book aims to contribute a better understanding on poverty and food security in Southeast Asia during the recent global recession considering both recent developments and the previous major crisis of 1997-98.

During the 2008 financial crisis, the possible changes in remittance-sending behavior and potential avenues to alleviate a probable decline in remittance flows became concerns. This book brings together a wide array of studies from around the world focusing on the recent trends in remittance flows. The authors have gathered a select group of researchers from academic, practitioner and policy making bodies. Thus the book can be seen as a conversation between the different stakeholders involved in or affected by remittance flows globally. The book is a first-of-its-kind attempt to analyze the effects of an ongoing crisis on remittance flows globally. Data analyzed by the book reveals three trends. First, The more diversified the destinations and the labour markets for migrants the more resilient are the remittances sent by migrants. Second, the lower the barriers to labor mobility, the stronger the link between remittances and economic cycles in that corridor. And third, as remittances proved to be relatively resilient in comparison to private capital flows, many remittance-dependent countries became even more dependent on remittance inflows for meeting external financing needs. There are several reasons for migration and remittances to be relatively resilient to the crisis. First, remittances are sent by the stock (cumulative flows) of migrants, not only by the recent arrivals (in fact, recent arrivals often do not remit as regularly as they must establish themselves in their new homes). Second, contrary to expectations, return migration did not take place as expected even as the financial crisis reduced employment opportunities in the US and Europe. Third, in addition to the persistence of migrant stocks that lent persistence to remittance flows, existing migrants often absorbed income shocks and continued to send money home. Fourth, if some migrants did return or had the intention to return, they tended to take their savings back to their country of origin. Finally, exchange rate movements during the crisis caused unexpected changes in remittance behavior: as local currencies of many remittance recipient countries depreciated sharply against the US dollar, they produced a “sale” effect on remittance behavior of migrants in the US and other destination countries.

This book provides an analysis of the global economic crisis from an Asian perspective. It examines the impacts of the policy measures adopted, the remaining challenges in rebalancing the global economy, the next steps in regional economic integration in Asia, and issues related to reform of the international financial architecture.