Global Economic Modeling

This volume honors the extraordinary career of Thomas Hertel. It also celebrates the 25th anniversary of the founding of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) by Prof. Hertel. All of those contributing to this volume, including Prof. Hertel's students and colleagues, have benefitted in some ways from the selfless professional generosity and dedication to scientific public goods that have been hallmarks of his career.The book examines the history of the GTAP project, the scientific contributions of Prof. Hertel, and the general application of computational modeling to global economic policy analysis. The applications in the volume, reflecting the broad contributions made by the GTAP community to global policy analysis, range from the impact of globalization on employment to the sustainability impacts of economic integration.

Global econometric models have a long history. From the early 1970s to the present, as modeling techniques have advanced, different modeling paradigms have emerged and been used to support national and international policy making. One purpose of this volume -- based on a conference in recognition of the seminal impact of Nobel Prize winner in Economic Sciences Lawrence R Klein, whose pioneering work has spawned the field of international econometric modeling -- is to survey these developments from today's perspective. A second objective of the volume is to shed light on the wide range of attempts to broaden the scope of modeling on an international scale. Beyond new developments in traditional areas of the trade and financial flows, the volume reviews new approaches to the modeling of linkages between macroeconomic activity and individual economic units, new research on the analysis of trends in income distribution and economic wellbeing on a global scale, and innovative ideas about modeling the interactions between economic development and the environment. With the expansion of elaborated economic linkages, this volume makes an important contribution to the evolving literature of global econometric models.

This book deals with the economic modelling of water at the global, national and sub-national levels. It presents a multi-faceted analysis and, while it outlines the theories behind various models, its main purpose is to analyse policy issues and present insights arising from modelling, including a chapter analysing the macroeconomic implications of climate change. Arguably the most compelling reason for publishing a book on the economic modelling of water arises from the fact that agriculture accounts for approximately 70% of water used for economic purposes, while only contributing 4% of global income. Given that water is an essential commodity, this discrepancy may in part be symptomatic of an undervaluation of water due to immature and incomplete markets. In turn, this undervaluation has led to an ongoing misallocation of water. When economic models include water accounts that feed into production functions, they model impacts on the marginal product of water. Policies that improve the link between the marginal product and price of water will improve water allocation, while advanced economic models such as those presented here can enhance our ability to explore the possible impacts of improved policy.

This book presents the technical aspects of an economic model used to examine issues of global economic significance, such as the impact on the world economy of changes in trade and environmental policy. The book provides a number of studies using the model to examine trade reform, growth and investment, climate change, natural resources, technology, and demographic change and migration.

During the last two centuries, the way economic science is done has changed radically: it has become a social science based on mathematical models in place of words. This book describes and analyses that change - both historically and philosophically - using a series of case studies to illuminate the nature and the implications of these changes. It is not a technical book; it is written for the intelligent person who wants to understand how economics works from the inside out. This book will be of interest to economists and science studies scholars (historians, sociologists and philosophers of science). But it also aims at a wider readership in the public intellectual sphere, building on the current interest in all things economic and on the recent failure of the so-called economic model, which has shaped our beliefs and the world we live in.

This book presents in detail a pair of models of the economics of climate change. The models, called RICE-99 (for the Regional Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy) and DICE-99 (for the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy) build on the authors' earlier work, particularly their RICE and DICE models of the early 1990s. Humanity is risking the health of the natural environment through a myriad of interventions, including the atmospheric emission of trace gases such as carbon dioxide, the use of ozone-depleting chemicals, the engineering of massive land-use changes, and the destruction of the habitats of many species. It is imperative that we learn to protect our common geophysical and biological resources. Although scientists have studied greenhouse warming for decades, it is only recently that society has begun to consider the economic, political, and institutional aspects of environmental intervention. To do so raises formidable challenges of data modeling, uncertainty, international coordination, and institutional design. Attempts to deal with complex scientific and economic issues have increasingly involved the use of models to help analysts and decision makers understand likely future outcomes as well as the implications of alternative policies. This book presents in detail a pair of models of the economics of climate change. The models, called RICE-99 (for the Regional Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy) and DICE-99 (for the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy) build on the authors' earlier work, particularly their RICE and DICE models of the early 1990s. They can help policy makers design better economic and environmental policies.