Global Regional Linkages In The Earth System

Global environmental change occupies a central niche in the pantheon of modern sciences. There is an urgent need to know and understand the way in which global biogeochemical cycles have changed over different time scales in the past and are likely to do so in the future. Equally important, it is necessary to determine the extent to which natural variability and that induce by anthropogenic activities are bringing about change. A number of international co-operative scientific programmes ad dress these issues. Chief among them are the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the Inter national Human Dimensions Programme (IHDP) for global change. This book is one of a series of IGBP syntheses drawing together findings in global environmental change over the past decade or so. One focus of IGBP activities is the System for Analysis, Research and Training (START). Co-sponsored by the WCRP and IHDP, START establishes regional research networks for global change science in developing countries, stimulates and carries out global change research in developing regions of the world, and builds capacity to undertake such research at personal, institutional and regional levels. Several regional global change networks have been established, and much regional research has been accomplished in the last five years or so. In this book, work relating to four of the older START regions, Southern Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia and East Asia, will be used as case studies to illustrate regional-global linkages in Earth System Science.

Global Change and the Earth System describes what is known about the Earth system and the impact of changes caused by humans. It considers the consequences of these changes with respect to the stability of the Earth system and the well-being of humankind; as well as exploring future paths towards Earth-system science in support of global sustainability. The results presented here are based on 10 years of research on global change by many of the world's most eminent scholars. This valuable volume achieves a new level of integration and interdisciplinarity in treating global change.

This volume includes revised versions of most of the presentations made at the International Conference «Understanding the Earth Sys tem: Compartments, Processes and Interactions" held on November 24-26, 1999 in Bonn. The Conference was organized by the German National Committee on Global Change Research as part of the Bonn Science Festival 1999-2000. The Bonn Science Festival (Wissen schaftsfestival Region Bonn) was organized and funded by sfg Strukturforderungsgesellschaft Bonn/Rhein-Siegl Ahrweiler mbH. The generous support for organizing the conference and printing this volume by sfg is gratefully acknowledged. Additional financial and organizational support for separate workshop sessions and publica tions have also been provided by the German Federal Ministry for Science and Research, BMBF and Germany's major research funding agency, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft. The editors wish to gratefully acknowledge the help, advice and especially patience of many individuals who have contributed to this volume. The contributions are intended to document the debate on crucial issues of the emerging concept of earth system science and to stimulate the necessary scientific discussion. While every effort has been made on the part of the editors to ensure consistency in termi nology, style and methods of quotation, the variety of contributors has inevitably resulted in certain discrepancies. E. EHLERS Bonn, February 2001 T. KRAFFT Contents Part I Panorama: The Earth System: Analysis from Science and the Humanities Chapter 1 Understanding the Earth System - From Global Change Research to Earth System Science . . . . . . . 3 E. EHLERS and T. KRAFFT Chapter 2 Earth System Analysis and Management. . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . 17 . . .

In this benchmark volume top scholars come together to present state-of-the-art research and pursue a more rigorous framework for understanding and studying the linkages between social and ecological systems. Contributors from a wide spectrum of disciplines, including archaeology, anthropology, geography, ecology, palaeo-science, geology, sociology, and history, present and assess both the evolution of our thinking and current, state-of-the-art theory and research. Covering ancient through modern periods, they discuss the complex ways in which human culture, economy, and demographics interact with ecology and climate change. The World System and the Earth System is critical reading for all scholars and students working at the interface of nature and society.Contributors: Thomas Abel, Björn Berglund, Chris Chase-Dunn, Alfred Crosby, Carole L. Crumley, John Dearing, Bert de Vries, Nina Eisenmenger, Andre Gunder Frank, Jonathan Friedman, Stefan Giljum, Thomas Hall, Karin Holmgren, Alf Hornborg, Kristian Kristiansen, Thomas Malm, Daniel Mandell, Betty Meggers, George Modelski, Emilio Moran, Helena Öberg, Frank Oldfield, Susan Stonich, William Thompson, Peter Turchin.

Since the dawn of medical science, people have recognized connections between a change in the weather and the appearance of epidemic disease. With today's technology, some hope that it will be possible to build models for predicting the emergence and spread of many infectious diseases based on climate and weather forecasts. However, separating the effects of climate from other effects presents a tremendous scientific challenge. Can we use climate and weather forecasts to predict infectious disease outbreaks? Can the field of public health advance from "surveillance and response" to "prediction and prevention?" And perhaps the most important question of all: Can we predict how global warming will affect the emergence and transmission of infectious disease agents around the world? Under the Weather evaluates our current understanding of the linkages among climate, ecosystems, and infectious disease; it then goes a step further and outlines the research needed to improve our understanding of these linkages. The book also examines the potential for using climate forecasts and ecological observations to help predict infectious disease outbreaks, identifies the necessary components for an epidemic early warning system, and reviews lessons learned from the use of climate forecasts in other realms of human activity.

This work provides an in-depth perspective and update on special topics in Global Environmental Change in relation to Human Security. It offers an overview of new Joint Projects of the four International Global Change Programmmes and on research efforts in Germany. It is also an up-to-date report on emerging necessities in Global Environmental Change research, and a collection of suggestions for its future evolution.