Household Resilience To Drought

This study identifies factors that affect resilience to drought among smallholder farmers in Salima, one of the districts frequently affected by drought in Malawi. The study contributes to the existing literature by constructing a drought resilience index (DRI) and uses it to determine the effect of drought resilience on the welfare of farming households. Principal Com-ponents Analysis (PCA) is used to construct the DRI. Appreciating that smallholder farmers actively respond to events that threaten their livelihoods, the study identified how factors such as household assets, social capital, the size of land held by the farming household, and others factors help farmers to absorb adverse welfare effects resulting from prolonged dry spells and droughts. In order to capture the effect of drought on the welfare of farming households, a stochastic frontier production function is estimated. Results suggest that over 62 percent of households in the study area were not resilient and, hence, vulnerable to the adverse effects of dry spells. Factors such as age of the household head, size of the farm family, landholding size, and the number of immediate family members living outside the household are identified as af-fecting the drought resilience of farming households. The study also finds a positive correlation between resilience and improved household welfare. The policy implications from the results of this study include promoting productivity enhancing technologies, diversifying crop production from maize, and pursuing household livelihoods outside of agriculture in order to reduce the risks to household welfare resulting from drought.

This book assesses the effectiveness of changes in watershed interventions in one of the most fragile resource regions of India. Specifically the chapters examine various watershed centred interventions and their implementation process. An evaluation of the livelihood impacts, including crop production on the communities, is discussed and an assessment of the drought and climate resilience of households in the context of watershed and related interventions, including institutions and capacity of the communities, is investigated. Lessons are drawn to further identify measures to strengthen and improvise interventions for enhanced climate-drought resilience in harsh environments.

Recent research sheds new light on the relationships among climatic shocks, conflict, household and community resilience, and policy interventions that can break the vicious climate?conflict cycle. This brief reviews this research and outlines its implications for regional development strategies, with special attention to pastoralist populations, who appear to be increasingly vulnerable.

Drylands are at the core of Africa’s development challenge. Drylands make up about 43 percent of the region’s land surface, account for about 75 percent of the area used for agriculture, and are home to about 50 percent of the population, including a disproportionate share of the poor. Due to complex interactions among many factors, vulnerability in drylands is high and rising, jeopardizing the long-term livelihood prospects for hundreds of millions of people. Climate change, which is expected to increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, will exacerbate this challenge. African governments and their partners in the international development community stand ready to tackle the challenges confronting drylands, but important questions remain unanswered about how the task should be undertaken. Do dryland environments contain enough resources to generate the food, jobs, and income needed to support sustainable livelihoods for a fast growing population? If not, can injections of external resources make up the deficit? Or is the carrying capacity of drylands so limited that outmigration should be encouraged? Based on analysis of current and projected future drivers of vulnerability and resilience, the report uses an original modeling framework to identify promising interventions, quantify their likely costs and benefits, and describe the policy trade-offs that will need to be addressed. By 2030, economic growth leading to structural change will allow some of the people living in drylands to transition to non-agriculture based livelihood strategies, reducing their vulnerability. Many others will continue to rely on livestock keeping and crop farming. For the latter group, a number of “best bet†? interventions have the potential to make a significant difference in reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience. This report evaluates the opportunities and challenges associated with these interventions, and it draws a number of conclusions that have important implications for policy making.

This study uses comparable data collected in a pastoralist setting in Kenya and a rain-fed crop production context in Zambia to examine the relationship between climate-adaptive practices, food security, and households’ perceived resilience against climatic shocks. We sort climate-adaptive practices based on their relative factor intensities or diversification decisions, which allows us to draw comparisons regarding these relationships across diverse production systems. Using the doubly robust inverse probability weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) approach to account for potential selection issues, we find that capital-intensive adaptive strategies are consistently and positively associated with resilience, food security, and income in both contexts. Labour-intensive and diversification strategies have generally positive but heterogeneous impacts across the two production systems, likely governed by contextual differences. Results also highlight the complementarity of adaptive practices in improving household welfare in both contexts. The findings suggest that alleviating the barriers to adoption of climate-adaptive practices and promoting adaptation in several dimensions of rural livelihoods simultaneously can enhance resilience to climate shocks and reduce poverty.

Drylands account for three-quarters of Sub-Saharan Africa's cropland, two-thirds of cereal production, and four-fifths of livestock holdings. Today frequent and severe shocks, especially droughts, limit the livelihood opportunities available to millions of households and undermine efforts to eradicate poverty in the drylands. Prospects for sustainable development of drylands are assessed in this book through the lens of resilience, understood here to mean the ability of people to withstand and respond to droughts and other shocks. An original model was developed expressly to consistently and coherently evaluate different type of interventions on the ground, which provided a common framework to anticipate the scale of the challenges likely to arise in drylands, as well as to generate insights into opportunities for addressing those challenges. Such modeling framework consisted in a) estimating the baseline vulnerability profiles of people living in drylands (2010), b) estimate the evolution of vulnerability by 2030 under a range of assumptions, c) calculated the number of people affectedby drought in the different administrative units of each country, and d) evaluate different types of interventions in agriculture and livestock for mitigating drought impact by calculating the potential for reducing the number of people affected for each scenario and conducting a simplified · benefit/cost (B/C) analysis for each type of intervention. For livestock, simulation models were used to estimate the impacts of feed balances, livestock production, and household income resilience interventions under different climate scenarios). For agriculture, the DSSAT (Decision Support System for·Agrotechnology Transfer) framework was used to assess the potential impact on yields likely to result from adoption of five crop farming technologies: (1) drought-tolerant varieties, (2) heat-tolerant varieties, (3) additional fertilizer, (4) agroforestry practices, (S) irrigation (6) water-harvesting techniques and selected combinations thereof.

Armed conflict combined with prolonged drought has put about 20 million people at risk of starvation and death in Somalia, South Sudan, Yemen, and northern Nigeria. The international development and aid communities are caught between the enormity of the humanitarian crisis, which demands an estimated US$4.4 billion to address, and the lack of resources forthcoming from donors. Food crises, famine-like conditions, and famines recur with regularity in many developing countries (see Box 1 for definitions of terms). Although the current famines can be largely attributed to conflicts, chronic food insecurity also threatens several other African countries. For example, 6.7 million people were affected by Malawi’s largest food crisis in decades in 2016–2017, and the country remains vulnerable to weather extremes that could create food emergencies (World Bank 2017). In Kenya, food security has deteriorated since the end of 2016 and half of its 47 counties face food shortages (Chatterjee and Mengistu 2017). How do countries prepare to prevent shocks—natural and man-made—from generating food crises? What does it take to break the cycle of chronic food insecurity and build resilient food systems? How have some countries managed to prevent drought from leading to famine? In this brief, we document lessons for building resilient food systems to prevent future famines.

At head of title: Conflict Research Group.