Human Judgment And Decision Processes In Applied Settings

Human Judgment and Decision Processes in Applied Settings is the second to two volumes that attempt to define the areas of progress in the understanding of human decision making processes. The first volume, Human Judgment and Decision Processes (Academic Press, 1975) was concerned with formal and mathematical approaches to the problems of judgment and decision making. The major theoretical orientations (information integration theory, signal detection theory, portfolio theory, and multiattribute-utility measurement) were presented and their rationales discussed. The present volume is concerned with the application of these theories, and the various techniques derived from them, to the problems of decision making in the everyday world. The chapters reflect the many modifications and adjustments that must be made to mathematical rules in order to apply decision theory models in the real world. The tools described serve a broad variety of interests: those of the urban health or social planner, the organizational manager, the researcher, the educator, and, in fact, all of those who must weight evidence to reach decisions. Planner, manager, researcher, teacher, policymaker—all will find assistance in overcoming the commonly encountered roadblocks when one must choose between alternatives in what remains an uncertain world.

Human Judgment and Decision Processes is a collection of papers that covers the various theoretical frameworks that relate judgment to decision making. The book is comprised of 10 chapters that cover both mathematical models involved in decision making and interpersonal aspect of judgment process. The first five chapters cover papers about decision making. The subjects of the papers include multiattribute utility measurement for social decision making; portfolio theory and the measurement of risk; and information-integration analysis of risky decision making. The other half of the text deals with the judgment process, which includes topics such as interaction of judge and informational components; judgment and decision processes in the formation and change of social attitudes; and the role of probabilistic and syllogistic reasoning in cognitive organization and social inference. The book will be of great use to psychologists involved in research on human judgment and decision process.

This work examines issues such as medical diagnosis, weather forecasting, labour negotiations, risk, public policy, business strategy, eyewitnesses, and jury decisions. This is a revision of Arkes and Hammond's 1986 collection of papers on judgment and decision-making. Updated and extended, the focus of this volume is interdisciplinary and applied.

The Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making is a state-of-the art overview of current topics and research in the study of how people make evaluations, draw inferences, and make decisions under conditions of uncertainty and conflict. Contains contributions by experts from various disciplines that reflect current trends and controversies on judgment and decision making. Provides a glimpse at the many approaches that have been taken in the study of judgment and decision making and portrays the major findings in the field. Presents examinations of the broader roles of social, emotional, and cultural influences on decision making. Explores applications of judgment and decision making research to important problems in a variety of professional contexts, including finance, accounting, medicine, public policy, and the law.

This book offers an overview of recent research on the psychology of judgment and decision making, the field that investigates the processes by which people draw conclusions, reach evaluations, and make choices. An introductory, historically oriented chapter provides a way of viewing the overall structure of the field, its recent trends, and its possible directions. Subsequent sections present significant recent papers by prominent researchers, organized to reveal the currents, connections, and controversies that animate the field. Current trends in the field are illustrated with papers from ongoing streams of research. The papers on "connections" explore memory, explanation and argument, affect, attitudes, and motivation. Finally, a section on "controversies" presents problem representation, domain knowledge, content specificity, rule-governed versus rule-described behavior, and proposals for radical departures and new beginnings in the field. Students and researchers in psychology who have an interest in cognitive processes will find this text to be rewarding reading.

From the O.J. Simpson verdict to peace-making in the Balkans, the critical role of human judgement--complete with its failures, flaws, and successes--has never been more hotly debated and analyzed than it is today. This landmark work examines the dynamics of judgement and its impact on events that take place in human society, which require the direction and control of social policy. Research on social policy typically focuses on content. This book concentrates instead on the decision-making process itself. Drawing on 50 years of empirical research in decision theory, Hammond examines the possibilities for wisdom and cognitive competence in the formation of social policies, and applies these lessons to specific examples, such as the space shuttle Challenger disaster and the health care debate. Uncertainly, he tells us, can seldom be fully eliminated; thus error is inevitable, and injustice for some unavoidable. But the capacity for make wise judgments increases to the extent that we understand the potential pitfalls and their origin. The judgment process for example involves an ongoing rivalry between intuition and analysis, accuracy and rationality. The source of this tension requires an examination of the evolutionary roots of human judgement and how these fundamental features may be changing as our civilization increasingly becomes an information and knowledge-based society. With numerous examples from law, medicine, engineering, and economics, the author dramatizes the importance of judgment and its role in the formation of social policies which affect us all, and issues the first comprehensive examination of its underlying dynamics.

Policy-capturing models, data-based aids, expert systems and decision analysis are the main decision-making techniques introduced here, with attention to their methodological bases and practical evaluation.