Imf Lending In An Interconnected World

We analyze the determinants of IMF lending since the early nineties, a period during which the roles of financial cycles and interconnectedness as amplifiers and transmitters of economic crises have gained prominence. First, we show that the global financial cycle is an important driver of IMF lending cycles. Second, using a panel of 91 advanced, emerging, and frontier economies over 1992-2014, we show that global factors and interconnectedness, as proxied by a countries’ potential exposure to economic spillovers from trade partners, together with more traditional idiosyncratic factors, have a significant impact on the probability that a member country obtains financial assistance from the IMF. Our results are robust to various robustness checks. The approach presented in this paper can be used to assess future demand for IMF financial assistance.

Extending previous work on the determinants of IMF lending in an interconnected world, we introduce a model of sample selection in which both selection and size dimensions of individual IMF arrangements are presented within a unified econometric framework. We allow for unobserved heterogeneity to create an additional channel for sample selection at the country level. The results suggest that higher external financing needs, larger exchange rate depreciation, lower GDP growth, as well as deteriorated global financial conditions, are associated with larger individual IMF arrangement sizes. Using the estimated parameters, Monte Carlo simulation of a wide spectrum of global shock scenarios suggest that the distribution of potential aggregate IMF lending exhibits a substantial right tail. Our approach may provide an insightful input to broader policy discussions on the adequacy of the IMF resources.

The International Monetary Fund has been criticised from both the right and the left of the political spectrum with the right arguing that it is too interventionist and creates more problems than it solves and the left on occasion demanding that it be abolished altogether. What seems almost beyond question is that the IMF needs to be reformed. Defining a future role for the IMF will always be a controversial issue, but vital to any considerations will be a measured assessment of how it has operated in the past. This excellent new book from an internationally respected expert on the IMF intends to do just that. Starting with an historical background tracing the evolution of the IMF, the book goes on to cover such themes as: *The circumstances under which countries turn to the IMF *The various aspects of IMF conditionality *Institutional issues such as lending facilities and how the fund is resourced. Bringing together an array of articles, this excellent new book will undoubtedly be required reading for anyone with a serious interest in development studies as well as being an eye-opening read for policy makers involved with the IMF.

We analyze the determinants of IMF lending since the early nineties, a period during which the roles of financial cycles and interconnectedness as amplifiers and transmitters of economic crises have gained prominence. First, we show that the global financial cycle is an important driver of IMF lending cycles. Second, using a panel of 91 advanced, emerging, and frontier economies over 1992-2014, we show that global factors and interconnectedness, as proxied by a countries’ potential exposure to economic spillovers from trade partners, together with more traditional idiosyncratic factors, have a significant impact on the probability that a member country obtains financial assistance from the IMF. Our results are robust to various robustness checks. The approach presented in this paper can be used to assess future demand for IMF financial assistance.

Explains the policies and decisions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the context of changes in the global economy.

This paper seeks to advance our understanding of global financial interconnectedness by (i) mapping aspects of the architecture of global finance and (ii) investigating critical fault lines related to interconnectedness along which systemic risks were built up and shocks transmitted in the crisis. It thus takes initial steps toward operationalizing enhanced financial sector and macro-financial surveillance called for by the IMF’s Executive Board and by experts such as de Larosiere et al. (2009). Getting a better handle on interconnectedness would strengthen the Fund‘s ability, together with the Financial Stability Board, to track systemic risk concentrations. It would also inform spillover and vulnerability analyses, and sharpen bilateral and multilateral surveillance.

This issue of Annual Report discusses that the global economy is at a delicate moment. The expansion of early 2018 has lost momentum, in large part in response to rising trade tensions. There are threats from rising financial vulnerabilities and geopolitical uncertainties. These challenges call for policymakers to avoid missteps and to take the right policy steps: at home, across borders, and globally. In addition to several major reviews looking at IMF conditionality, economic and financial surveillance, and lending facilities, the management has deepened its analysis on trade spillovers and financial stability and are revamping frameworks for debt sustainability assessment in low-income and market access countries. Building on earlier research that showed how trade can boost incomes and living standards by enabling the flow of technology across countries, the October 2018 World Economic Outlook provided illustrative scenarios of the potential impact of escalating trade tensions between the United States and China.

Recent years have seen IMF lending focusing almost exclusively on the developing world as richer countries have turned to more flexible sources of finance. This provides the first analysis of Fund lending and key changes needed for future success.