Improving Fiscal Transparency To Raise Government Efficiency And Reduce Corruption Vulnerabilities In Central Eastern And Southeastern Europe

This departmental paper investigates how countries in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) can improve fiscal transparency, thereby raising government efficiency and reducing corruption vulnerabilities.

This paper provides an interim update on implementation of the 2018 Framework for Enhanced Fund Engagement on Governance. This update is in advance of a comprehensive formal review of the Framework scheduled for mid-2021.

This Selected Issues paper provides a systematic assessment of Moldova’s governance and institutional frameworks. It follows guidelines approved by the IMF executive board, which were developed to deliver systematic and even-handed analysis on macroeconomically critical governance and institutional vulnerabilities. This paper also focuses on seven key areas for IMF engagement: corruption, rule of law, regulatory framework, fiscal governance, financial sector oversight, anti-money laundering/combating the financing of terrorism, and central bank governance. The analysis is based on internationally comparable data, diagnosis from IMF technical assistance reports, as well as other expert assessments. Strengthening the judiciary and rule of law and accelerating state-owned enterprises (SOE) reform are clear priorities. The widespread nature of governance vulnerabilities and institutional weaknesses in Moldova, combined with capacity constraints, creates challenges for policy formulation and prioritization. Policy efforts should therefore focus on strengthening rule of law and reforming Moldova’s judiciary system, as well as building capacity and increasing the autonomy of key institutions. Steadfast SOE reform would foster competition, investment, and productivity, while reducing fiscal risks.

This Selected Issues paper focuses on the potential to improve government efficiency and reduce opportunities for corruption in Russia by further improving fiscal transparency. The analysis presented here is in the context of the 2018 Framework for Enhanced IMF Engagement in Governance, which supports more systematic, candid, and even-handed engagement with member countries on this issue. The cross-country evidence presented confirms that fiscal transparency is broadly and robustly correlated with better outcomes. Improved outcomes include lower financing costs, better efficiency of public investment and revenue collection, and improved corruption perceptions. The IMF’s fiscal transparency evaluations provide an alternative to the Open Budget Survey. In order to investigate the possibility of omitted variables, data presents result from panel regressions on the impact of fiscal transparency on corruption perceptions. Although regressions analysis can mitigate the risk of omitted variables, it leaves the issue of causality unresolved. Fully disentangling all the causal links among corruption, institutions, and economic development may not be feasible.

The COVID-19 pandemic has, with alarming speed, dealt a heavy blow to an already-weak global economy, which is expected to slide into its deepest recession since the second world war, despite unprecedented policy support. The global recession would be deeper if countries take longer to bring the pandemic under control, if financial stress triggers defaults, or if there are protracted effects on households and firms. Economic disruptions are likely to be more severe and protracted in emerging market and developing economies with larger domestic outbreaks and weaker medical care systems; greater exposure to international spillovers through trade, tourism, and commodity and financial markets; weaker macroeconomic frameworks; and more pervasive informality and poverty. Beyond the current steep economic contraction, the pandemic is likely to leave lasting scars on the global economy by undermining consumer and investor confidence, human capital, and global value chains. Being mostly a reflection of the recent plunge in global energy demand, low oil prices are unlikely to provide much of a boost to global growth in the near term. While policymakers' immediate priorities are to address the health crisis and moderate the short-term economic losses, the likely long-term consequences of the pandemic highlight the need to forcefully undertake comprehensive reform programs to improve the fundamental drivers of economic growth, once the crisis abates. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by these economies, while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.

CESEE countries lag in terms of infrastructure compared to the EU15, and deficient infrastructure is often cited as a constraint to growth and convergence. Investing in infrastructure is therefore an important long-standing policy issue for the region. In the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, infrastructure investment has also gained some ground as economies look to support activity in the recovery phase once the virus has been contained. Against this backdrop, this project seeks to benchmark infrastructure in CESEE, assess the macro impact of higher infrastructure investment, and discuss policies issues to maximize such impact. First, we benchmark infrastructure in the region versus the EU15, across various infrastructure sectors and using different methodologies. Second, deploying empirical estimates and model-based simulations, we analyze the macroeconomic impact of boosting infrastructure investment. Third, we present an in-depth analysis of policy issues: enhancing public investment management, managing fiscal risks, and mobilizing private sector participation.

The pamphlet (which updates the 1995 Guidelines for Fiscal Adjustment) presents the IMF’s approach to fiscal adjustment, and focuses on the role that sound government finances play in promoting macroeconomic stability and growth. Structured around five practical questions—when to adjust, how to assess the fiscal position, what makes for successful adjustment, how to carry out adjustment, and which institutions can help—it covers topics such as tax policies, debt sustainability, fiscal responsibility laws, and transparency.

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.