Inflation In Portugal

This paper examines recent trends, main drivers, and risks to near-term inflation in Portugal. Before the energy crisis, inflation in Portugal was low, often below the Euro Area average, but it accelerated quickly in the second half of 2022. Our estimated Phillips curve regression suggests that, similarly to other Euro Area countries, inflation in Portugal has been largely driven by food and external prices pressures. Inflation is projected to gradually decrease, reflecting receding energy prices and anchored inflation expectations. However, uncertainty remains high and inflation could remain elevated, especially if the inflationary process became backward looking or wage-inflation spirals are induced by pressures from energy prices.

In 2011, following years of large-scale external imbalances financed by debt, Portugal’s economy reached a crisis point. To restore economic growth and credibility with international lenders, the country embarked on a difficult path of fiscal adjustment and structural reforms. By many metrics, Portugal’s 2011–14 macroeconomic stabilization program has been a success, but going forward Portugal would benefit from policies to reduce vulnerabilities, absorb labor slack, and generate sustainable growth.

Portugal: Selected Issues

The Portuguese economy has rebounded strongly from the COVID-19 crisis. Though high inflation and weak global economic conditions have slowed growth in 2022, renewed fiscal support helped to cushion the impact. Public debt relative to GDP has declined below its 2019 level, but rapid population ageing and strong investment needs are increasing fiscal pressures.

This report discusses key issues related to the economy of Portugal. Highly accommodative macroeconomic conditions have generated only modest growth in the presence of remaining structural impediments. In 2015, low interest rates, a weak euro, and low oil prices remained largely in place, allowing growth to reach 1.5 percent. The 2016 budget proposal appears insufficiently ambitious to put public debt on a firmly downward trajectory, with significant risks to execution. Bank balance sheets need to be strengthened to avoid further negative surprises and protect taxpayers. Envisaged labor and product market policies imply at least a partial reversal of structural measures introduced during the IMF-supported program.

This 2001 edition of OECD's periodic economic review of Portugal examines recent economic developments, policies and prospects and includes special features on the tax system and on structural reform.

Focusing upon the 15 years during which Spain and Portugal have been members of the European Union, this collection of essays addresses issues related to the anniversary which took place in 2001.