Intelligence Reform After Five Years

The Intell. Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 was the most significant legislation affecting the U.S. intell. community since the National Security Act of 1947. The 2004 act attempted to ensure closer coordination among intell. agencies espec. in regard to counter-terrorism efforts. It established the position of Dir. of National Intell. (DNI) to coordinate the nation¿s intell. effort. The DNI speaks for U.S. intell., briefs the Pres., has authority to develop the budget for the national intell. effort and manage appropriations made by Congress, and can transfer personnel and funds from one agency to another. Contents of this report: Intro.; Background; The Intell. Reform Act of 2004; Positive Assessment; Negative Views; Alternative Views; Future Direction.

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

The Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 was the most significant legislation affecting the U.S. intelligence community since 1947. Enacted in the wake of 9/11, the act attempted to ensure closer coordination among intelligence agencies esp. in regard to counterterrorism efforts. It established the position of Dir, of Nat. Intell. (DNI) with extensive authority to coordinate the nation¿s intelligence effort. The DNI speaks for U.S. intelligence, briefs the Pres., has authority to develop the budget for the nat. intelligence effort, and manage appropriations made by Congress. Contents of this report: Intro.; Background; The Intelligence Reform Act of 2004; Positive Assessment; Negative Views; An Alternative View; Future Direction.

In Intelligence Reform: A Question of Balance, Col John D. Bansemer shares his penetrating insights into reforming the US intelligence community (IC) to improve its performance. He offers valuable guidelines for thoughtful action on this perennial concern. The events of 9/11/2001 resulted in national soul searching as we attempted to understand how such terrible events could happen. Congress investigated these events, and the 9/11 Commission studied them. Although the commission ultimately made 41 recommendations, the ones that called yet again for reform of the IC captured the most attention in both the press and Congress. Why has intelligence reform been called for so often over the years? Why has it proven so difficult to improve the performance of intelligence agencies to anyone's lasting satisfaction? In addressing these questions, there is a direction that Bansemer wisely does not take, namely attempting to sort out the relative roles of intelligence failures and operational failures. Surely future studies of Hurricane Katrina will illustrate, through an example of nearly laboratory purity, that operational failures can occur even with nearly perfect intelligence, hence that intelligence reform may well need to go hand in-hand with operational reform to improve overall performance. Bansemer examines the performance of the US intelligence community by focusing on underlying tensions that are not unique to the IC but that occur also within any large organization. Understood this way, reform looks less like a choice among polar preferences and more like a question of altering balances, each of which stems from unavoidably competing interests within an organization. One touchstone of Bansemer's analysis is the Goldwater- Nichols Act (GNA) of 1986. The GNA exemplifies one way to attempt reform of a large organization that harbors specialized and competing interests-in this case the Department of Defense (DOD) with its component military services. On the record, Congress and the 9/11 Commission had elements of the GNA in mind when they crafted their legislation and recommendations, respectively. The novel insight from Bansemer's analysis is its finding that while there may be some commonality in the symptoms (i.e., the reasons for reform) between the DOD and the IC, the recommended course of treatment may not be universally applicable. Crucial particulars of organizational structures, culture, and incentives all play a role in the success of any reform effort in improving performance. Another key element of Bansemer's analysis is the question of why intelligence reform has so rarely met the expectations of the reformers recommending change. He finds that this phenomenon has less to do with broad organizational structure and more with tensions among elements of the organization. In the case of the IC these tensions are heightened, relative to those in the DOD, with its four military services by virtue of the presence in the intelligence "community" of a larger number of much more loosely affiliated elements with much more diverse missions belonging to many government departments, including State, Treasury, and Homeland Security.

This edition of Global Trends revolves around a core argument about how the changing nature of power is increasing stress both within countries and between countries, and bearing on vexing transnational issues. The main section lays out the key trends, explores their implications, and offers up three scenarios to help readers imagine how different choices and developments could play out in very different ways over the next several decades. Two annexes lay out more detail. The first lays out five-year forecasts for each region of the world. The second provides more context on the key global trends in train.