International Macroeconomic Modelling For Policy Decisions

This book is based on an international conference organised by the Applied Econo metric Association (AEA) on International Macroeconomic Modelling which was held in Brussels at the Commission of the European Communities in December 1983. On behalf of the Applied Econometric Association, we would like to extend our thanks to all participants and contributors. This conference would not have been possible without the cooperation and support of the Commission of the European Economic Communities and of its Directorate General for Economics and Financial Affairs (DGII) staff, in particular M. Emerson, A. Dramais, and also H. Serbat of the Paris Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Our thanks go also to J.P. Ancot for his constructive comments concerning the structure of this book. We are grateful to M. Russo, R. Maldague and Y. Ullmo for opening the con ference with their stimulating review and comments on the use of international macroeconomic models; and to R. Bird, A.M. Costa, A. Crockett, H. Guitton, J.C. Milleron, J. Paelinck, J. Waelbroeck for chairing the scientific sessions. P. Artus F. Gagey O. Guvenen vi INTRODUCTION The main focus of this book is to present recent developments in the construction and use of international macroeconometric models. Four main aspects are selected: (i) analysis of trade linkages and exchange rate determination; (ii) modelling and simulating the international economy; (iii) international policy coordination; (iv) the use of international macroeconomic models.

This collection, written by highly-placed practitioners and academic economists, provides a picture of how economic modellers and policy makers interact. The book provides international case studies of particular interactions between models and policy making, and argues that the flow of information is two-way.

This book provides a comprehensive description of the state-of-the-art in modelling global and national economies. It introduces the long-run structural approach to modelling that can be readily adopted for use in understanding how economies work, and in generating forecasts for decision- and policy-makers. The book contains a thorough description of recent developments in macroeconomics and econometrics, which should be of interest to advanced students and researchers, but is also written to be accessible and helpful to practitioners in government and the private sector. The long-run structural approach is illustrated with various global and national examples, including a step-by-step description of the development and use of a model of the UK economy. Throughout, the book emphasises the use of macroeconometric modelling in the real world and is written in a way that ensures the techniques illustrated can be replicated or applied in new contexts. The transparency and pragmatism of the modelling approach used within this book will be attractive to practitioners who need manageable and interpretable models to answer specific questions.

This presents an invaluable, up-to-date review of recent developments in theoretical modelling in open economy macroeconomics as well as international monetary economics.

International Macroeconomics provides students with an analytically rigorous introduction to the impact of globalization on macroeconomics. Presents an analytically rigorous introduction to the field and uniquely includes optional econometric studies Provides a unified macroeconomic model to examine rigorously international macroeconomics and then focuses this model on historic cases, institutions, and specific countries, dealing with various types of macroeconomic crises Provides a strong policy orientation by an author who worked for many years at the IMF Is supported by a website with extensive solutions for the problem sets, PowerPoint slides, and an update on the 08-09 meltdown

In chapter 2 we concluded that the present public choice and marxist approaches to the study of political processes, as far as relevant for the analysis of economic policy making, are unsatisfactory, for reasons of incoherency, insufficient empirical support, and lack of specificity~ It was suggested that a different approach to the subject might be fruitful. To that purpose, we now turn our attention to the so-called interest function approach to the study of politico-economic phenomena, that has been developed by Van Winden (1983). See also Van Winden (1987), Van Velthoven and Van Winden (1986). Without paying too much attention to the specific conduct of and intricate relationships between voters, politicians, bureaucrats and interest groups, the interest function approach intends to combine valuable elements of the marxist and public choice analyses. According to Van Winden (1983, p. 12) "this means that in studying the interaction between state and private sector, attention should be paid to: - social classes, and the impact of class/power relationships on political and economic processes; - the way that social power structures (involving the real control over state activities) are maintained or altered; - the relative autonomy of political processes (involving the state) and its consequences for, as well as its dependence on economic processes; - individual motivations; - the possibility of mathematical formalization. " Section 3. 2. will give a general introduction to the concepts and the line of argument of the interest function approach.

Applied Macroeconomics for Public Policy applies system and control theory approaches to macroeconomic problems. The book shows how to build simple and efficient macroeconomic models for policy analysis. By using these models, instead of complex multi-criteria models with uncertain parameters, readers will gain new certainty in macroeconomic decision-making. As high debt to GDP ratios cause problems in societies, this book provides insights on improving economies during and after economic downturns. Provides a detailed analysis of existing macroeconomic models Addresses the dynamics of debt to GDP ratio and the effects of fiscal and monetary policy on this ratio Shows how to use models to evaluate the dynamics of the debt to GDP ratio in cases of government spending and tax cuts and to decide whether such economic measures are efficient Uses optimal theory to obtain optimal yearly debt levels to reach the established goals (decrease debt or balance budget) Provides many examples and software exercises to promote learning by doing