Introduction To Rare Event Simulation

This book presents a unified theory of rare event simulation and the variance reduction technique known as importance sampling from the point of view of the probabilistic theory of large deviations. It allows us to view a vast assortment of simulation problems from a unified single perspective.

In a probabilistic model, a rare event is an event with a very small probability of occurrence. The forecasting of rare events is a formidable task but is important in many areas. For instance a catastrophic failure in a transport system or in a nuclear power plant, the failure of an information processing system in a bank, or in the communication network of a group of banks, leading to financial losses. Being able to evaluate the probability of rare events is therefore a critical issue. Monte Carlo Methods, the simulation of corresponding models, are used to analyze rare events. This book sets out to present the mathematical tools available for the efficient simulation of rare events. Importance sampling and splitting are presented along with an exposition of how to apply these tools to a variety of fields ranging from performance and dependability evaluation of complex systems, typically in computer science or in telecommunications, to chemical reaction analysis in biology or particle transport in physics. Graduate students, researchers and practitioners who wish to learn and apply rare event simulation techniques will find this book beneficial.

Rare event probability (10-4 and less) estimation has become a large area of research in the reliability engineering and system safety domains. A significant number of methods have been proposed to reduce the computation burden for the estimation of rare events from advanced sampling approaches to extreme value theory. However, it is often difficult in practice to determine which algorithm is the most adapted to a given problem. Estimation of Rare Event Probabilities in Complex Aerospace and Other Systems: A Practical Approach provides a broad up-to-date view of the current available techniques to estimate rare event probabilities described with a unified notation, a mathematical pseudocode to ease their potential implementation and finally a large spectrum of simulation results on academic and realistic use cases. Provides a broad overview of the practical approach of rare event methods. Includes algorithms that are applied to aerospace benchmark test cases Offers insight into practical tuning issues

Reaction Rate Theory and Rare Events bridges the historical gap between these subjects because the increasingly multidisciplinary nature of scientific research often requires an understanding of both reaction rate theory and the theory of other rare events. The book discusses collision theory, transition state theory, RRKM theory, catalysis, diffusion limited kinetics, mean first passage times, Kramers theory, Grote-Hynes theory, transition path theory, non-adiabatic reactions, electron transfer, and topics from reaction network analysis. It is an essential reference for students, professors and scientists who use reaction rate theory or the theory of rare events. In addition, the book discusses transition state search algorithms, tunneling corrections, transmission coefficients, microkinetic models, kinetic Monte Carlo, transition path sampling, and importance sampling methods. The unified treatment in this book explains why chemical reactions and other rare events, while having many common theoretical foundations, often require very different computational modeling strategies. Offers an integrated approach to all simulation theories and reaction network analysis, a unique approach not found elsewhere Gives algorithms in pseudocode for using molecular simulation and computational chemistry methods in studies of rare events Uses graphics and explicit examples to explain concepts Includes problem sets developed and tested in a course range from pen-and-paper theoretical problems, to computational exercises

This Handbook is a collection of chapters on key issues in the design and analysis of computer simulation experiments on models of stochastic systems. The chapters are tightly focused and written by experts in each area. For the purpose of this volume “simulation refers to the analysis of stochastic processes through the generation of sample paths (realization) of the processes. Attention focuses on design and analysis issues and the goal of this volume is to survey the concepts, principles, tools and techniques that underlie the theory and practice of stochastic simulation design and analysis. Emphasis is placed on the ideas and methods that are likely to remain an intrinsic part of the foundation of the field for the foreseeable future. The chapters provide up-to-date references for both the simulation researcher and the advanced simulation user, but they do not constitute an introductory level ‘how to’ guide. Computer scientists, financial analysts, industrial engineers, management scientists, operations researchers and many other professionals use stochastic simulation to design, understand and improve communications, financial, manufacturing, logistics, and service systems. A theme that runs throughout these diverse applications is the need to evaluate system performance in the face of uncertainty, including uncertainty in user load, interest rates, demand for product, availability of goods, cost of transportation and equipment failures. * Tightly focused chapters written by experts * Surveys concepts, principles, tools, and techniques that underlie the theory and practice of stochastic simulation design and analysis * Provides an up-to-date reference for both simulation researchers and advanced simulation users

This unique textbook comprehensively introduces the field of discrete event systems, offering a breadth of coverage that makes the material accessible to readers of varied backgrounds. The book emphasizes a unified modeling framework that transcends specific application areas, linking the following topics in a coherent manner: language and automata theory, supervisory control, Petri net theory, Markov chains and queueing theory, discrete-event simulation, and concurrent estimation techniques. Topics and features: detailed treatment of automata and language theory in the context of discrete event systems, including application to state estimation and diagnosis comprehensive coverage of centralized and decentralized supervisory control of partially-observed systems timed models, including timed automata and hybrid automata stochastic models for discrete event systems and controlled Markov chains discrete event simulation an introduction to stochastic hybrid systems sensitivity analysis and optimization of discrete event and hybrid systems new in the third edition: opacity properties, enhanced coverage of supervisory control, overview of latest software tools This proven textbook is essential to advanced-level students and researchers in a variety of disciplines where the study of discrete event systems is relevant: control, communications, computer engineering, computer science, manufacturing engineering, transportation networks, operations research, and industrial engineering. ​Christos G. Cassandras is Distinguished Professor of Engineering, Professor of Systems Engineering, and Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering at Boston University. Stéphane Lafortune is Professor of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor.

The Encyclopedia of Earthquake Engineering is designed to be the authoritative and comprehensive reference covering all major aspects of the science of earthquake engineering, specifically focusing on the interaction between earthquakes and infrastructure. The encyclopedia comprises approximately 300 contributions. Since earthquake engineering deals with the interaction between earthquake disturbances and the built infrastructure, the emphasis is on basic design processes important to both non-specialists and engineers so that readers become suitably well informed without needing to deal with the details of specialist understanding. The encyclopedia’s content provides technically-inclined and informed readers about the ways in which earthquakes can affect our infrastructure and how engineers would go about designing against, mitigating and remediating these effects. The coverage ranges from buildings, foundations, underground construction, lifelines and bridges, roads, embankments and slopes. The encyclopedia also aims to provide cross-disciplinary and cross-domain information to domain-experts. This is the first single reference encyclopedia of this breadth and scope that brings together the science, engineering and technological aspects of earthquakes and structures.

Rubinstein is the pioneer of the well-known score function and cross-entropy methods. Accessible to a broad audience of engineers, computer scientists, mathematicians, statisticians and in general anyone, theorist and practitioner, who is interested in smart simulation, fast optimization, learning algorithms, and image processing.