Ionospheric Prediction And Forecasting

This book describes how to predict and forecast the state of planet Earth’s ionosphere under quiet and disturbed conditions in terms of dynamical processes in the weakly ionized plasma media of the upper atmosphere and their relation to available modern measurements and modelling techniques. It explains the close relationship between the state of the media and the radio wave propagation conditions via this media. The prediction and forecasting algorithms, methods and models are oriented towards providing a practical approach to ionospherically dependent systems design and engineering. Proper understanding of the ionosphere is of fundamental practical importance because it is an essential part of telecommunication and navigation systems that use the ionosphere to function or would function much better in its nonappearance on the Earth and on any planet with an atmosphere.

The main features of ionospheric-geomagnetic storms and their probable causes are reviewed. Disturbances in short-wave radio propagation during such storms are discussed. The principles of short-term prediction of ionospheric-geomagnetic storms are summarized and all kinds of Izmiran's forecasts are described. The application of these forecasts and current ionospheric data to calculation of usable radio propagation frequencies is explained. This Manualiis of interest to radio-communication operators as well as to geophysicists dealing with this field of science.

Special short-term, HF, MUF predictions for selected trunks in Southeast Asia were evaluated in the fall of 1966. The evaluation illustrated the problem of predicting the MUF over a short, north-south path in the equatorial latitudes where variations in the MUF up to 8 MHz within a period of several hours are not uncommon. The opportunity to observe HF operations in a military environment led to many interesting conclusions, including the fact that the word propagation is often used interchangeably with outage. Automatic system monitoring and more readily accessible knowledge of propagation effects would assist in minimizing the trunk outages.

This book describes essential concepts of, and the status quo in, the field of ionospheric space weather. It explains why our society on planet Earth and moving outwards into space cannot work safely, function efficiently, or progress steadily without committed and comprehensive research initiatives addressing space weather. These initiatives must provide space environment specifications, warnings, and forecasts, all of which need to be timely, accurate and reliable. Cause and effect models of the Earth’s ionosphere are discussed in terms of the spatial and temporal dimensions of background variability, storms, gradients, irregularities, and waves in both current and long-term research activities. Starting from dynamic processes on the Sun, in the interplanetary medium, and in the Earth’s magnetosphere, ionosphere, and atmosphere, the text focuses on the dominant features of the plasma medium under normal and extreme conditions over the European zone during the last few Solar Cycles. One of the book’s most unique features is a series of fundamental examples that offer profound insights into ionospheric climate and weather. Various approaches for acquiring and disseminating the necessary data and forecasting analyses are discussed, and interesting analogies are observed between terrestrial and space weather – both of which could produce lasting social consequences, with not only academic but also concrete economic implications. The book’s primary goal is to foster the development of ionospheric space weather products and services that are capable of satisfying the ever-growing demand for space-based technology, and are ready for the society of the not-so-distant future.

The main features of ionospheric-geomagnetic storms and their probable causes are reviewed. Disturbances in short-wave radio propagation during such storms are discussed. The principles of short-term prediction of ionospheric-geomagnetic storms are summarized and all kinds of Izmiran's forecasts are described. The application of these forecasts and current ionospheric data to calculation of usable radio propagation frequencies is explained. This Manualiis of interest to radio-communication operators as well as to geophysicists dealing with this field of science.

This book highlights ionospheric delay investigation and forecasting using GPS-TEC measurements in the equatorial region. The ionospheric delay error is the main source of error and a major concern for GPS applications as it corrupts the positioning and time transfer results. In the equatorial region, the variations of the total electron content (TEC) and the ionospheric delay are recognized to be high when compared with other regions such as mid-latitude and high latitude. The investigation and forecasting of trans-ionospheric propagation errors are essential for precise measurement and further contribute valuable information to satellite and space probe navigation, space geodesy, radio astronomy and other applications.