Iran S National Security Policy

In early 2019, the Islamic Republic of Iran marked its fortieth anniversary, despite decades of isolation, political pressure, sanctions and war. Observers of its security policies continue to try and make sense of this unlikely endurance. Some view the regime as a purely rational actor, whose national security decisions and military affairs are shaped by the same considerations as in other states. Others believe that it is ideology driving Tehran's strategy. Either way, virtually everyone agrees that the mullahs' policies are fundamentally different from those pursued by their monarchical predecessors. 'No Conquest, No Defeat' offers a historically grounded overview of Iranian national security issues.

In early 2019, the Islamic Republic of Iran marked its fortieth anniversary, despite decades of isolation, political pressure, sanctions and war. Observers of its security policies continue to try and make sense of this unlikely endurance. Some view the regime as a purely rational actor, whose national security decisions and military affairs are shaped by the same considerations as in other states. Others believe that it is ideology driving Tehran's strategy. Either way, virtually everyone agrees that the mullahs' policies are fundamentally different from those pursued by their monarchical predecessors. No Conquest, No Defeat offers a historically grounded overview of Iranian national security. Tabatabai argues that the Islamic Republic is neither completely rational nor purely ideological. Rather, its national security policy today is largely shaped by its strategic culture, a product of the country's historical experiences of war and peace. As a result, Iranian strategic thinking is perhaps best characterized by its dynamic yet resilient nature, one that is continually evolving. As the Islamic Republic enters its fifth decade, this book sheds new light on Iran's controversial nuclear and missile programs and its involvement in Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen.

How dangerous is the Iranian military build-up and what are the strategic objectives of the Islamic regime following Operation Deset Storm? This book address these important issues in the context of the dangerous, perplexing and ever changing regional politics of the Persian Gulf.

How dangerous is the Iranian military build-up and what are the strategic objectives of the Islamic regime following Operation Deset Storm? This book address these important issues in the context of the dangerous, perplexing and ever changing regional politics of the Persian Gulf.

Religion, nationalism, ethnicity, economics, and geopolitics all are important in explaining Iran's goals and tactics in its relationship with the outside world, as are the agendas of key security institutions and the ambitions of their leaders. This report assesses Iran's security policy in light of these factors. It examines broad drivers of Iran's security policy, describes important security institutions, explores decisionmaking, and reviews Iran's relations with key countries. The authors conclude that Iraq is widely recognized as the leading threat to Iran's Islamic regime and Afghanistan is seen as an emerging threat. In contrast, Iran has solid, if not necessarily warm, relations with Syria and established working ties to Pakistan and Russia. Iran's policies toward its neighbors are increasingly prudent: It is trying to calm regional tension and end its isolation, although its policies toward Israel and the United States are often an exception to this policy. Iran's security forces, particularly the regular military, are often voices of restraint, preferring shows of force to overactive confrontations. Finally, Iran's security forces generally respect and follow the wishes of Iran's civilian leadership; conducting rogue operations is rare to nonexistent.

The struggle between Khatami's so-called reformers and the so-called conservatives, led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamene'i, has from the beginning been played out by forces that are far from unified on either side. The struggle has been played out against the backdrop of some consensus positions between the majority of the reformers and the majority of the conservatives, especially on the need for internal stability. However, recent events seem to indicate that a new and more confrontational phase in the relationship may be emerging. Given the foreign and domestic pressures on Iran, three scenarios have become possible. Iran may attempt to continue the status quo. While such an appeal may work in the short term, it is not likely to be sustainable unless economic reforms are launched. The second scenario of internal showdown and external calm posits that the international community, and especially the US, give Iran the space it needs to reform from within and is even able to promote the process through a combination of toughness as regards the conservatives and moderation as regards the reformers. Ultimately, Iran's internal factions will have to find their own way, and it could be a confrontational one if the reformers are determined to push their agenda through in the face of real resistance. Meanwhile, US actions in Iraq stand a good chance of radicalizing Iranian politics for at least the short-term. External showdown and internal unity in the face of a threat posits a real risk of US intervention in Iran in 12 to 18 months as the next step after Iraq has been successfully invaded and occupied. In the face of such a threat, most of the reformers and the conservatives may be expected to put aside their differences to meet the threat to their country, at least for a period of time. This would seem to be the least likely scenario. An invasion of Iran is quite a different matter to Iraq. However, the perceived threat of such an invasion may give the hard-liners an excuse to try to clamp down, which may then backfire. The world should be under no illusions as to how easy it will be for the reformers to wrest power away from the conservatives in Iran. If matters come to a real head, considerable chaos may ensue for a time.

Terrorism and the Middle East are often connected. The fear that these will be a future source of threat with weapons of mass destruction, notably nuclear or biological weapons, has grown in recent years. This book looks at the politics of one important state in the region - Iran - and concludes that political reform in that country is changing it in ways that are reducing it as a threat to its neighbours and to international security.