Judgment Under Uncertainty
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Judgment Under Uncertainty
Author | : Daniel Kahneman,Paul Slovic,Amos Tversky |
Publsiher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 574 |
Release | : 1982-04-30 |
Genre | : Psychology |
ISBN | : 0521284147 |
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Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies.
Heuristics and Biases
Author | : Thomas Gilovich,Dale Griffin,Daniel Kahneman |
Publsiher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 884 |
Release | : 2002-07-08 |
Genre | : Education |
ISBN | : 0521796792 |
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This book, first published in 2002, compiles psychologists' best attempts to answer important questions about intuitive judgment.
An Analysis of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman s Judgment Under Uncertainty
Author | : Camille Morvan,William J. Jenkins |
Publsiher | : CRC Press |
Total Pages | : 93 |
Release | : 2017-07-05 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9781351350600 |
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Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman’s 1974 paper ‘Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases’ is a landmark in the history of psychology. Though a mere seven pages long, it has helped reshape the study of human rationality, and had a particular impact on economics – where Tversky and Kahneman’s work helped shape the entirely new sub discipline of ‘behavioral economics.’ The paper investigates human decision-making, specifically what human brains tend to do when we are forced to deal with uncertainty or complexity. Based on experiments carried out with volunteers, Tversky and Kahneman discovered that humans make predictable errors of judgement when forced to deal with ambiguous evidence or make challenging decisions. These errors stem from ‘heuristics’ and ‘biases’ – mental shortcuts and assumptions that allow us to make swift, automatic decisions, often usefully and correctly, but occasionally to our detriment. The paper’s huge influence is due in no small part to its masterful use of high-level interpretative and analytical skills – expressed in Tversky and Kahneman’s concise and clear definitions of the basic heuristics and biases they discovered. Still providing the foundations of new work in the field 40 years later, the two psychologists’ definitions are a model of how good interpretation underpins incisive critical thinking.
The Oxford Handbook of Cognitive Psychology
Author | : Daniel Reisberg |
Publsiher | : Unknown |
Total Pages | : 1106 |
Release | : 2013-04-04 |
Genre | : Medical |
ISBN | : 9780195376746 |
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This handbook is an essential, comprehensive resource for students and academics interested in topics in cognitive psychology, including perceptual issues, attention, memory, knowledge representation, language, emotional influences, judgment, problem solving, and the study of individual differences in cognition.
Utility Probability and Human Decision Making
Author | : Dirk Wendt,C.A. Vlek |
Publsiher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 434 |
Release | : 1975-12-31 |
Genre | : Social Science |
ISBN | : 9027706034 |
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Human decision making involves problems which are being studied with increasing interest and sophistication. They range from controversial political decisions via individual consumer decisions to such simple tasks as signal discriminations. Although it would seem that decisions have to do with choices among available actions of any kind, there is general agreement that decision making research should pertain to choice prob lems which cannot be solved without a predecisional stage of finding choice alternatives, weighing evidence, and judging values. The ultimate objective of scientific research on decision making is two-fold: (a) to develop a theoretically sound technology for the optimal solution of decision problems, and (b) to formulate a descriptive theory of human decision making. The latter may, in tum, protect decision makers from being caught in the traps of their own limitations and biases. Recently, in decision making research the strong emphasis on well defined laboratory tasks is decreasing in favour of more realistic studies in various practical settings. This may well have been caused by a growing awareness of the fact that decision-behaviour is strongly determined by situational factors, which makes it necessary to look into processes of interaction between the decision maker and the relevant task environ ment. Almost inevitably there is a parallel shift of interest towards problems of utility measurement and the evaluation of consequences.
Judgment and Decision Making Under Uncertainty Descriptive Normative and Prescriptive Perspectives
Author | : David R. Mandel,Gorka Navarrete,Nathan Dieckmann,Jonathan D. Nelson |
Publsiher | : Frontiers Media SA |
Total Pages | : 224 |
Release | : 2019-09-26 |
Genre | : Electronic Book |
ISBN | : 9782889630349 |
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Judging Under Uncertainty
Author | : Adrian Vermeule |
Publsiher | : Harvard University Press |
Total Pages | : 356 |
Release | : 2006 |
Genre | : Law |
ISBN | : 0674022106 |
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In this book, Adrian Vermeule shows that any approach to legal interpretation rests on institutional and empirical premises about the capacities of judges and the systemic effects of their rulings. He argues that legal interpretation is above all an exercise in decisionmaking under severe empirical uncertainty.
Judgment and Decision Making
Author | : Terry Connolly,Hal R. Arkes,Kenneth R. Hammond |
Publsiher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 814 |
Release | : 2000 |
Genre | : Education |
ISBN | : 0521626021 |
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This work examines issues such as medical diagnosis, weather forecasting, labour negotiations, risk, public policy, business strategy, eyewitnesses, and jury decisions. This is a revision of Arkes and Hammond's 1986 collection of papers on judgment and decision-making. Updated and extended, the focus of this volume is interdisciplinary and applied.