Limiting Greenhouse Effects

Contains revised background papers and group reports which offer multidisciplinary surveys by an international panel of renowned scientists based on discussions of vanguard ideas, techniques and models. Covers such topics as the role of greenhouse gases in climate change, alternatives for reducing greenhouse potential per unit of energy service, a discussion of both social and institutional barriers regarding carbon dioxide emission reductions and much more.

The greenhouse effect has risen rapidly to prominence as an issue of pressing global concern. Several major conferences have called for an international agreement on measures to address the problem, and have urged the international community to negotiate targets for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. The momentum for some kind of agreement is now considerable. Greenhouse gases are intimately associated with global resources and energy industries. Limiting emissions will have far-reaching implications. There are wide differences in the circumstances and attitudes of different countries, even within the industrialised world, as well as major issues associated with resource and technology transfers to developing nations. These and many other complexities stand in the path of an agreement. The study considers these obstacles and concludes that an approach based upon negotiating targets for each country is not feasible, and that this could prove counterproductive. It examines a range of alterative options, including carbon taxes, energy production quotas, and systems of tradeable or leasable emission permits, and argues that the last of these provides the best prospects for an effective international agreement on limiting carbon emissions. No approach will be easy, and there are still many important issues to be resolved. The study concludes by addressing the options and implications of failure to reach a truly international agreement.

The globe is warming and while no one knows what will happen as a result, it is clear that slowing the process is a necessary goal. Other studies have considered 'warming fates', this one brings sophisticated computer modeling to bear on ways of minimizing the risks. Fossil carbon emissions, other trace gases and releases from other sources are all taken into account, and the authors demonstrate the global need to produce a budget for cumulative releases between now and the year 2100. They also demonstrate the need to return to a rate of forest carbon storage equal to that of the mid-1980s. These budgets look at issues of international equity and the ways of moving to a binding agreement. The price of failure to control GHG emissions may be uncertain, but it will be more than anyone can afford. Political will lies at the root of successful climate stabilization and major capital and technology transfers to Third World countries will be needed if there is to be any chance of success. This book provides an agenda for advance.A book [which] throws into stark relief the mountain still to be climbed before the world community can agree on a credible programme to tackle global warming. David Thomas, Financial Times Originally published in 1991

Climate change, driven by the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, poses serious, wide-ranging threats to human societies and natural ecosystems around the world. The largest overall source of greenhouse gas emissions is the burning of fossil fuels. The global atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, the dominant greenhouse gas of concern, is increasing by roughly two parts per million per year, and the United States is currently the second-largest contributor to global emissions behind China. Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change, part of the congressionally requested America's Climate Choices suite of studies, focuses on the role of the United States in the global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The book concludes that in order to ensure that all levels of government, the private sector, and millions of households and individuals are contributing to shared national goals, the United States should establish a "budget" that sets a limit on total domestic greenhouse emissions from 2010-2050. Meeting such a budget would require a major departure from business as usual in the way the nation produces and uses energy-and that the nation act now to aggressively deploy all available energy efficiencies and less carbon-intensive technologies and to develop new ones. With no financial incentives or regulatory pressure, the nation will continue to rely upon and "lock in" carbon-intensive technologies and systems unless a carbon pricing system is established-either cap-and-trade, a system of taxing emissions, or a combination of the two. Complementary policies are also needed to accelerate progress in key areas: developing more efficient, less carbon-intense energy sources in electricity and transportation; advancing full-scale development of new-generation nuclear power, carbon capture, and storage systems; and amending emissions-intensive energy infrastructure. Research and development of new technologies that could help reduce emissions more cost effectively than current options is also strongly recommended.

At the recent UN Climate Change Conferences in Copenhagen, Cancun and Durban, the developed nations promised hundreds of billions of dollars in financial aid to help developing countries overcome global climate change dangers. The developed nations will need to spend many more billions to limit their own greenhouse gas pollution, the main cause of global warming and climate change. Will all this money and effort be wasted? This book argues that nearly all of the world''s climate policy makers and expert advisors have been making tragic mistakes that ensure the failures of climate change mitigation attempts.The great majority of climate change programs, from American congressional bills to cap-and-trade economic incentive schemes to the Kyoto Protocol and other international treaties, rely on greenhouse gas emissions-reduction targets that will prove OC too little, too lateOCO by deferring strict pollution controls too far into the future. The inadequate emissions-reduction measures also will not be able to bridge the gap between the highest priorities of developed and developing nations. Vast discharges of greenhouse gases authorized by weak emissions-reduction programs in the next several decades virtually guarantee that the cumulative concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will keep increasing while climate change continues to grow worse.Rather than adopting ineffectual emissions-reduction programs that cannot limit the cumulative concentration of greenhouse gases in the air, this book proposes a shift to a OC cleanOCO technology-replacement strategy that could support current lifestyles and expanding economic development without further damaging our climate. The only way to reduce the greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere enough to decrease climate change hazards is to replace large pollution sources as rapidly as feasible in as many industrial sectors and geographic regions as possible with OC cleanOCO alternative technologies, processes, and methods.

, Buying Greenhouse Insurance outlines a way to think about greenhouse-effect decisions under uncertainty. It describes an insightful model for determining the economic costs of limiting carbon dioxide emissions produced by burning fossil fuels and provides a solid analytical base for rethinking public policy on the farreaching issue of global warming. In recent years a growing concern that the increasing accumulation of greenhouse gases will lead to undesirable changes in global climate has resulted in a number of proposals, both in the United States and internationally, to set physical targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. But what will these proposals cost? Based on the authors' earlier ground-breaking work, Buying Greenhouse Insurance outlines a way to think about greenhouse-effect decisions under uncertainty. It describes an insightful model for determining the economic costs of limiting carbon dioxide emissions produced by burning fossil fuels and provides a solid analytical base for rethinking public policy on the farreaching issue of global warming. Manne and Richels present region-by-region estimates of the costs that would underlie an international agreement. Using a computer model known as Global 2100, they analyze the economic impacts of limiting C02 emissions under alternative supply and conservation scenarios. The results clearly indicate that a reduction in emissions is not the sole policy response to potential climate change. Following a summary of the greenhouse effect, its likely causes, and possible consequences, Manne and Richels take up issues that concern the public at large. They provide an overview of Global 2100, look at how the U.S. energy sector is likely to evolve under businessas-usual conditions and under carbon constraints, and describe the concept of "greenhouse insurance." They consider possible global agreements, including an estimate of benefits that might result from trading in an international market in emission rights. They conclude with a technical description directed toward modeling specialists.

Climate Change: Evidence and Causes is a jointly produced publication of The US National Academy of Sciences and The Royal Society. Written by a UK-US team of leading climate scientists and reviewed by climate scientists and others, the publication is intended as a brief, readable reference document for decision makers, policy makers, educators, and other individuals seeking authoritative information on the some of the questions that continue to be asked. Climate Change makes clear what is well-established and where understanding is still developing. It echoes and builds upon the long history of climate-related work from both national academies, as well as on the newest climate-change assessment from the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It touches on current areas of active debate and ongoing research, such as the link between ocean heat content and the rate of warming.