Luxembourg 2021 Article Iv Consultation Press Release Staff Report And Statement By The Executive Director For Luxembourg

The economic impact of the pandemic has been much milder than initially foreseen, still the outlook remains challenging. The economy, dominated by financial services, adapted quickly to telework and benefited from unprecedented policy support, both domestically and globally. Uncertainty is unusually high, dominated by the virus dynamics in the short term, with downside risks relating to a sharp rise in global risk premia, deglobalization trends, and changes in international taxation.

This 2019 Article IV Consultation discusses that Luxembourg’s growth prospects remain favorable, but downside risks arise from a weaker-than-expected global growth, a disorderly Brexit, changes in international tax rules, and a sharp tightening of global financial conditions. Domestically, rising real estate prices could exacerbate already elevated household indebtedness and increase affordability challenges. Fiscal policy should aim to maintain a strong fiscal position and preserve buffers. The government’s plans, while appropriate, will result in a slightly expansionary budget in 2019. The cost and timeline of the planned measures over the medium term remain to be determined. Given risks ahead, including from potential changes in international taxation, Luxembourg should build on its strong fiscal record and preserve sizeable buffers. Structural policies should focus on addressing key gaps in the economy. Further reforms of the pension system are needed to ensure its sustainability, while considering intergenerational equity and trade-offs of various reform options.

Growth and employment have slowed somewhat, reflecting mostly weaker external demand, tighter financial conditions, and confidence effects. A large fiscal support package in the run up to the election has alleviated the impact of the energy shock on consumers and firms, with energy price controls limiting the pass-through to inflation and hence wage increases in a context of automatic wage indexation.

The staff report for the 2010 Article IV Consultation underlies a thorough and objective view of the macroeconomic situation in Luxembourg and the challenges the economy is facing. The country’s enviable position of public finances at the onset of the crisis provided the space to accommodate fiscal support to the economy, enhance social transfers, and protect household income. Executive Directors recommended a sharper focus on liquidity and credit risks arising from banks’ sizable and concentrated exposures to their foreign parent groups.

This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic growth in Luxembourg reached 2.3 percent in 2017, above the European Union average, and was driven by net exports of financial services and private consumption. Growth is projected at 3.5 percent for 2018, with continued strong job creation, and a temporary slowdown in inflation. In 2017, buoyant corporate tax revenues contributed to a fiscal surplus of 1.4 percent of GDP. The full impact of 2016 tax reform, and a continued need for high public investment are expected to result in a small fiscal surplus over the medium-term.

This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights Luxembourg’s strong growth supported by the competitive advantages of fiscal stability, a qualified workforce, and business-friendly regulations and oversight. Economic growth reached 4.2 percent in 2016, well above the EU, and was driven by net exports of financial services. Growth is projected at 3.8 percent in 2017, with continued strong job creation and a pickup in inflation. Growth prospects are good but subject to downside risks, including a retreat from cross-border integration and policy uncertainty in the United States and related to Brexit and coming elections in Europe. These could result in financial market volatility affecting the financial system.

The pandemic dealt a severe blow to the Italian people and their economy. GDP fell by nearly 9 percent in 2020, with much larger drops for contact-intensive services. Public and corporate debt increased strongly and preexisting vulnerabilities have likely worsened. The government is prioritizing resolving the health emergency and transforming the economy to lift productivity, improve social outcomes and strengthen resilience to future shocks and structural change. The large National Recovery and Resilience Plan—partly financed by sizable Next Generation EU resources—will be used to increase physical and social infrastructure. Outlook. GDP is expected to recover strongly in 2021–22 and to grow well-above trend over the medium term, supported by investment spending. Nonetheless, economic scarring could be sizable. The two-sided risks relate to how the pandemic progresses, the efficiency of investment spending and the extent of savings drawdown, with large costs associated with the downside.

Germany’s economy contracted by just under 5 percent in 2020, outperforming most European peers. But renewed waves of infections and associated lockdowns caused economic activity to plunge again in the first quarter of this year. While the pace of mass vaccination has picked up and the economy has started to reopen, the recovery path is beset with risks, particularly with respect to the progress of the pandemic and supply shortages in major industries. The authorities have maintained appropriately accommodative fiscal and financial policies, and most measures supporting households and firms have been extended through 2021.