Macroeconomic Modelling

This work describes how the discipline has adapted to changing demands by adopting new insights from economic theory and by taking advantage of the methodological and conceptual advances within time series econometrics.

This book collects the revised and edited proceedings of the conference held in honour of the 50th anniversary of Professor Tinbergen's first macroeconomic policy model. Written by experts both in the field of model building and policy analysis, the contributions provide an invaluable overview of the state of the art and the use of macroeconomic models in our time.

This book gives a practical, applications-oriented account of the latest techniques for estimating and analyzing large, nonlinear macroeconomic models. Ray Fair demonstrates the application of these techniques in a detailed presentation of several actual models, including his United States model, his multicountry model, Sargent's classical macroeconomic model, autoregressive and vector autoregressive models, and a small (twelve equation) linear structural model. He devotes a good deal of attention to the difficult and often neglected problem of moving from theoretical to econometric models. In addition, he provides an extensive discussion of optimal control techniques and methods for estimating and analyzing rational expectations models. A computer program that handles all the techniques in the book is available from the author, making it possible to use the techniques with little additional programming. The book presents the logic of this program. A smaller program for personal microcomputers for analysis of Fair's United States model is available from Urban Systems Research & Engineering, Inc. Anyone wanting to learn how to use large macroeconomic models, including researchers, graduate students, economic forecasters, and people in business and government both in the United States and abroad, will find this an essential guidebook.

This open access book encompasses a collection of in-depth analyses showcasing the challenges and ways forward for macroeconomic modelling of R&D and innovation policies. Based upon the proceedings of the EC-DG JRC-IEA workshop held in Brussels in 2017, it presents cutting-edge contributions from a number of leading economists in the field. It provides a comprehensive overview of the current academic and policy challenges surrounding R&D as well as of the state-of-the-art modelling techniques. The book brings to the forefront outstanding issues related to the assessment of the macroeconomic impact of R&D policies and its modelling. It speaks to the rising importance of R&D and innovation policy, and the proliferation of macroeconomic models featuring endogenous technological change. The contents of this book will be of interest to both academic and policy audiences working in the fields of R&D and innovation.

This book looks at the distribution of income and wealth and the effects that this has on the macroeconomy, and vice versa. Is a more equal distribution of income beneficial or harmful for macroeconomic growth, and how does the distribution of wealth evolve in a market economy? Taking stock of results and methods developed in the context of the 1990s revival of growth theory, the authors focus on capital accumulation and long-run growth. They show how rigorous, optimization-based technical tools can be applied, beyond the representative-agent framework of analysis, to account for realistic market imperfections and for political-economic interactions. The treatment is thorough, yet accessible to students and nonspecialist economists, and it offers specialist readers a wide-ranging and innovative treatment of an increasingly important research field. The book follows a single analytical thread through a series of different growth models, allowing readers to appreciate their structure and crucial assumptions. This is particularly useful at a time when the literature on income distribution and growth has developed quickly and in several different directions, becoming difficult to overview.

Macroeconomic Modelling in a Changing World Towards a Common Approach Edited by Chris Allen and Stephen Hall Practical economic model building has changed enormously over the last twenty years. Econometrics has become much more sophisticated with the introduction of cointegration and non-stationary time series analysis. The use of economic theory in the form of complex non-linear cross equation restrictions is now much more widespread and the explicit modelling of expectations and credibility effects is more satisfactory. This has meant that the old style macroeconomic models which were complex by virtue of their size alone have been replaced by a generation of new models which embody complex theory and estimation to provide more superior forecasting and policy tools. Macroeconomic Modelling in a Changing World outlines the modelling approach which has been adopted at the Centre for Economic Forecasting at the London Business School, one of the world’s leading research institutes into macroeconomic modelling, in building its own models. Using explicit examples and illustrations, the authors examine the latest state-of-the-art models, and answer questions such as: How are modern econometrics used by model builders? How should we deal with structural change? How should expectations be modelled? How are models used in practice? Economics

Demonstrating that there are (superior) alternatives to the modern macroeconomic mainstream and its DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) models, this book presents the cutting edge in macroeconomic modelling, economic policy, and methodology from the perspective of heterodox economic thinking. The first part of the book explores methodological issues, advocating for a stronger ethical consideration in macroeconomics and for the adoption of a strategy of pluralism to ensure that macroeconomic theory is capable of adapting to real-world issues. The second part highlights recent trends in empirical Stock-Flow Consistent models by collecting a group of the most well-developed empirical models of five different economies: the Danish, the Dutch, the French, the Italian, and the Argentinian models. In all five cases, the models are used to discuss various policy aspects of the individual economies. Finally, the book explores issues of macroeconomic policy which are largely neglected by mainstream economists including financial (in)stability and macro imbalances. The book emphasizes the need for investigating sectoral balances, which are crucial elements for investigating imbalances from the heterodox perspective. This book will be of significant interest to students and scholars of macroeconomics, economic modelling, economic methodology and heterodox economics more broadly.

Macroeconomic Modelling has undergone radical changes in the last few years. There has been considerable innovation in developing robust solution techniques for the new breed of increasingly complex models. Similarly there has been a growing consensus on their long run and dynamic properties, as well as much development on existing themes such as modelling expectations and policy rules. This edited volume focuses on those areas which have undergone the most significant and imaginative developments and brings together the very best of modelling practice. We include specific sections on (I) Solving Large Macroeconomic Models, (II) Rational Expectations and Learning Approaches, (III) Macro Dynamics, and (IV) Long Run and Closures. All of the contributions offer new research whilst putting their developments firmly in context and as such will influence much future research in the area. It will be an invaluable text for those in policy institutions as well as academics and advanced students in the fields of economics, mathematics, business and government. Our contributors include those working in central banks, the IMF, European Commission and established academics.