Macroeconomic Modelling Economic Policy And Methodology

Demonstrating that there are (superior) alternatives to the modern macroeconomic mainstream and its DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) models, this book presents the cutting edge in macroeconomic modelling, economic policy, and methodology from the perspective of heterodox economic thinking. The first part of the book explores methodological issues, advocating for a stronger ethical consideration in macroeconomics and for the adoption of a strategy of pluralism to ensure that macroeconomic theory is capable of adapting to real-world issues. The second part highlights recent trends in empirical Stock-Flow Consistent models by collecting a group of the most well-developed empirical models of five different economies: the Danish, the Dutch, the French, the Italian, and the Argentinian models. In all five cases, the models are used to discuss various policy aspects of the individual economies. Finally, the book explores issues of macroeconomic policy which are largely neglected by mainstream economists including financial (in)stability and macro imbalances. The book emphasizes the need for investigating sectoral balances, which are crucial elements for investigating imbalances from the heterodox perspective. This book will be of significant interest to students and scholars of macroeconomics, economic modelling, economic methodology and heterodox economics more broadly.

Macroeconomic Modelling in a Changing World Towards a Common Approach Edited by Chris Allen and Stephen Hall Practical economic model building has changed enormously over the last twenty years. Econometrics has become much more sophisticated with the introduction of cointegration and non-stationary time series analysis. The use of economic theory in the form of complex non-linear cross equation restrictions is now much more widespread and the explicit modelling of expectations and credibility effects is more satisfactory. This has meant that the old style macroeconomic models which were complex by virtue of their size alone have been replaced by a generation of new models which embody complex theory and estimation to provide more superior forecasting and policy tools. Macroeconomic Modelling in a Changing World outlines the modelling approach which has been adopted at the Centre for Economic Forecasting at the London Business School, one of the world’s leading research institutes into macroeconomic modelling, in building its own models. Using explicit examples and illustrations, the authors examine the latest state-of-the-art models, and answer questions such as: How are modern econometrics used by model builders? How should we deal with structural change? How should expectations be modelled? How are models used in practice? Economics

Draws together the various strands and schools of thought to provide a unique overview of the methods employed in the research and study of macroeconomics. Demonstrates the relevance and vitality of macroeconomics beyond the idea of microeconomic foundations.

This textbook is a thorough introduction to the theory and practice of macroeconomic modelling. It provides a rigorous exposition of the theory of modelling and examines the main UK and European macroeconomic models. Policy-relevant conclusions are drawn from the models, including new areas such as wealth effects and rational expectations. The text compares UK macroeconomic models with key US and European models, with an emphasis on policy analysis and the ERM.

Macroeconometric models, in many ways the flagships of the economist's profession in the 1960s, came under increasing attack from both theoretical economist and practitioners in the late 1970s. Critics referred to their lack of microeconomic theoretical foundations, ad hoc models of expectations, lack of identification, neglect of dynamics and non-stationarity, and poor forecasting properties. By the start of the 1990s, the status of macroeconometric models had declined markedly, and had fallen completely out of, and with, academic economics. Nevertheless, unlike the dinosaurs to which they often have been likened, macroeconometric models have never completely disappeared from the scene. This book describes how and why the discipline of macroeconometric modelling continues to play a role for economic policymaking by adapting to changing demands, in response, for instance, to new policy regimes like inflation targeting. Model builders have adopted new insights from economic theory and taken advantage of the methodological and conceptual advances within time series econometrics over the last twenty years. The modelling of wages and prices takes a central part in the book as the authors interpret and evaluate the last forty years of international research experience in the light of the Norwegian 'main course' model of inflation in a small open economy. The preferred model is a dynamic model of incomplete competition, which is evaluated against alternatives as diverse as the Phillips curve, Nickell-Layard wage curves, the New Keynesian Phillips curve, and monetary inflation models on data from the Euro area, the UK, and Norway. The wage price core model is built into a small econometric model for Norway to analyse the transmission mechanism and to evaluate monetary policy rules. The final chapter explores the main sources of forecast failure likely to occur in a practical modelling situation, using the large-scale nodel RIMINI and the inflation models of earlier chapters as case studies.

Over the last 30 years, the Inforum approach to macro modelling has been shared by economists worldwide. Researchers have focussed much of their efforts to developing a linked system of international interindustry models with a consistent methodology. A world-wide network of research associates use the same methods and software obtaining comparable results. The XXth Inforum World Conference was held in Florence in September 2012 and this book contains a selection of papers presented during that Conference. All these contributions are aimed at policymakers, stakeholders, and applied economists. Some papers are devoted to specific topics (total factor productivity, energy issues, external linkages, demographic changes) and some others are oriented to macro model building and simulations.

This book is based on an international conference organised by the Applied Econo­ metric Association (AEA) on International Macroeconomic Modelling which was held in Brussels at the Commission of the European Communities in December 1983. On behalf of the Applied Econometric Association, we would like to extend our thanks to all participants and contributors. This conference would not have been possible without the cooperation and support of the Commission of the European Economic Communities and of its Directorate General for Economics and Financial Affairs (DGII) staff, in particular M. Emerson, A. Dramais, and also H. Serbat of the Paris Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Our thanks go also to J.P. Ancot for his constructive comments concerning the structure of this book. We are grateful to M. Russo, R. Maldague and Y. Ullmo for opening the con­ ference with their stimulating review and comments on the use of international macroeconomic models; and to R. Bird, A.M. Costa, A. Crockett, H. Guitton, J.C. Milleron, J. Paelinck, J. Waelbroeck for chairing the scientific sessions. P. Artus F. Gagey O. Guvenen vi INTRODUCTION The main focus of this book is to present recent developments in the construction and use of international macroeconometric models. Four main aspects are selected: (i) analysis of trade linkages and exchange rate determination; (ii) modelling and simulating the international economy; (iii) international policy coordination; (iv) the use of international macroeconomic models.

This work describes how the discipline has adapted to changing demands by adopting new insights from economic theory and by taking advantage of the methodological and conceptual advances within time series econometrics.