Macroeconomic Modelling For Policy Analysis

Over the last 30 years, the Inforum approach to macro modelling has been shared by economists worldwide. Researchers have focussed much of their efforts to developing a linked system of international interindustry models with a consistent methodology. A world-wide network of research associates use the same methods and software obtaining comparable results. The XXth Inforum World Conference was held in Florence in September 2012 and this book contains a selection of papers presented during that Conference. All these contributions are aimed at policymakers, stakeholders, and applied economists. Some papers are devoted to specific topics (total factor productivity, energy issues, external linkages, demographic changes) and some others are oriented to macro model building and simulations.

This book collects the revised and edited proceedings of the conference held in honour of the 50th anniversary of Professor Tinbergen's first macroeconomic policy model. Written by experts both in the field of model building and policy analysis, the contributions provide an invaluable overview of the state of the art and the use of macroeconomic models in our time.

This book provides an overview of macroeconometric modeling for less developed countries, a description of the structure and performance of Guyana's economy, an empirical testing of the model using annual data for Guyana, and a simulation approach to policy evaluation.

This open access book encompasses a collection of in-depth analyses showcasing the challenges and ways forward for macroeconomic modelling of R&D and innovation policies. Based upon the proceedings of the EC-DG JRC-IEA workshop held in Brussels in 2017, it presents cutting-edge contributions from a number of leading economists in the field. It provides a comprehensive overview of the current academic and policy challenges surrounding R&D as well as of the state-of-the-art modelling techniques. The book brings to the forefront outstanding issues related to the assessment of the macroeconomic impact of R&D policies and its modelling. It speaks to the rising importance of R&D and innovation policy, and the proliferation of macroeconomic models featuring endogenous technological change. The contents of this book will be of interest to both academic and policy audiences working in the fields of R&D and innovation.

Observers and Macroeconomic Systems is concerned with the computational aspects of using a control-theoretic approach to the analysis of dynamic macroeconomic systems. The focus is on using a separate model for the development of the control policies. In particular, it uses the observer-based approach whereby the separate model learns to behave in a similar manner to the economic system through output-injections. The book shows how this approach can be used to learn the forward-looking behaviour of economic actors which is a distinguishing feature of dynamic macroeconomic models. It also shows how it can be used in conjunction with low-order models to undertake policy analysis with a large practical econometric model. This overcomes some of the computational problems arising from using just the large econometric models to compute optimal policy trajectories. The work also develops visual simulation software tools that can be used for policy analysis with dynamic macroeconomic systems.

The Oxford Handbook of Computational Economics and Finance provides a survey of both the foundations of and recent advances in the frontiers of analysis and action. It is both historically and interdisciplinarily rich and also tightly connected to the rise of digital society. It begins with the conventional view of computational economics, including recent algorithmic development in computing rational expectations, volatility, and general equilibrium. It then moves from traditional computing in economics and finance to recent developments in natural computing, including applications of nature-inspired intelligence, genetic programming, swarm intelligence, and fuzzy logic. Also examined are recent developments of network and agent-based computing in economics. How these approaches are applied is examined in chapters on such subjects as trading robots and automated markets. The last part deals with the epistemology of simulation in its trinity form with the integration of simulation, computation, and dynamics. Distinctive is the focus on natural computationalism and the examination of the implications of intelligent machines for the future of computational economics and finance. Not merely individual robots, but whole integrated systems are extending their "immigration" to the world of Homo sapiens, or symbiogenesis.

Macroeconomic Modelling in a Changing World Towards a Common Approach Edited by Chris Allen and Stephen Hall Practical economic model building has changed enormously over the last twenty years. Econometrics has become much more sophisticated with the introduction of cointegration and non-stationary time series analysis. The use of economic theory in the form of complex non-linear cross equation restrictions is now much more widespread and the explicit modelling of expectations and credibility effects is more satisfactory. This has meant that the old style macroeconomic models which were complex by virtue of their size alone have been replaced by a generation of new models which embody complex theory and estimation to provide more superior forecasting and policy tools. Macroeconomic Modelling in a Changing World outlines the modelling approach which has been adopted at the Centre for Economic Forecasting at the London Business School, one of the world’s leading research institutes into macroeconomic modelling, in building its own models. Using explicit examples and illustrations, the authors examine the latest state-of-the-art models, and answer questions such as: How are modern econometrics used by model builders? How should we deal with structural change? How should expectations be modelled? How are models used in practice? Economics