Maneuvering The Saudi Iranian Rivalry In The Middle East How The United States Can Preserve And Protect Its Long Term Interests In The Region

This monograph examines the conflicts in the Middle East region between Saudi Arabia and Iran and the so-called proxy wars that are being fought between them, and discusses ways that the United States needs to maneuver carefully in this struggle to preserve its long-term interests in the area. Although Washington has political, economic, and strategic equities with Riyadh, it needs to think carefully about being perceived as engaging in sectarian strife that would alienate Shia allies in Iraq, show bias in its human rights policy, and anger millions of Iranian young people who want better relations with the United States.

Iranian-Saudi tensions are at their worst level in decades. Not only are diplomatic relations broken, but also the two countries are involved in several proxy wars in the region. The United States has sided with Saudi Arabia in these disputes largely because of longstanding strategic ties to Riyadh and because it sees Iran as a regional threat and a destabilizing force in the area. However, pursuing a one-sided policy in this rivalry carries long-term risks for Washington, because the close embrace of Saudi Arabia's problematic external and internal policies, such as the war in Yemen, denigration of Shia doctrines, and human rights problems, may have an ill effect against the United States. The one-sided policy can also alienate the younger generation of Iranians who want better relations with the United States and are Iran's future. Hence, this monograph argues that U.S. policymakers should maneuver with more dexterity through the Iranian-Saudi rivalry, avoid entanglements in the Sunni-Shia sectarian conflict, and keep their eye on long-term U.S. interests, which involve bringing about stability in the region.The monograph recommends that U.S. policymakers should devote sufficient time and resources to end the proxy wars in the region, as a first step toward easing Saudi-Iranian tensions. It also recommends the facilitation of dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Iran to air grievances, and come to some common ground such as non-interference in each other's internal affairs. Although the current environment may not seem conducive to such a dialogue, it should be remembered that relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia were not always acrimonious, and the two countries have cooperated in the past. To assuage Saudi concerns that such a policy might be perceived as a U.S. tilt toward Iran, the monograph recommends more joint military exercises between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia militaries as well as the deployment of U.S. Army's Stability Force Assistance Brigades (SFAB) to the Saudi kingdom for training and defensive purposes.

Saudi Arabia and Iran have often behaved as serious rivals for influence in the Middle East and especially the Gulf area since at least Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution and the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War. While both nations define themselves as Islamic, the differences between their foreign policies could hardly be more dramatic. In most respects, Saudi Arabia is a regional status quo power, while Iran often seeks revolutionary change throughout the Gulf area and the wider Middle East with varying degrees of intensity. Saudi Arabia also has strong ties with Western nations, while Iran views the United States as its most dangerous enemy. Perhaps the most important difference between the two nations is that Saudi Arabia is a conservative Sunni Muslim Arab state, while Iran is a Shi'ite state whose senior politicians often view their country as the defender and natural leader of Shi'ites throughout the region. The rivalry between Riyadh and Tehran has been reflected in the politics of a number of regional states where these two powers exercise influence including Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Bahrain and others.The 2011 wave of pro-democracy and anti-regime protests known as the "Arab Spring" introduced new concerns for both Saudi Arabia and Iran to consider within the framework of their regional priorities. The Saudi-Iranian rivalry is therefore likely to intensify as a central feature in the Middle Eastern security landscape that reaches into both the Gulf region and the Arab-Israeli theater. This is a reality that will touch upon the interests of the United States in a number of situations. In many instances, Saudi opposition to Iran will serve U.S. interests, but this will not occur under all circumstances. Saudi Arabia remains a deeply anti-revolutionary state with values and priorities which sometimes overlap with those of Washington on matters of strategic interest and often conflict over matters of reform and democracy for other Middle Eastern states. Additionally, in seeking to support Middle Eastern stability, the United States must be prepared to mediate between Riyadh and Baghdad, and thereby help to limit Iranian efforts to insert itself into Iraqi politics.

The Middle East is undergoing an era of revolutionary change that is challenging the foreign policies of the United States and virtually all regional states. In this new environment, opportunities and challenges exist for a number of regional and extra-regional states to advance their national interests, while attempting to marginalize those of their rivals. Despite these changes, the Arab Spring and revolutions in countries such as Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya have not altered some of the more fundamental aspects of the Middle East regional situation. One of the most important rivalries defining the strategic landscape of the Middle East is between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The competition between these two states is long-standing, but it is especially important now. Political relationships that have endured for decades, such as the one between Iran and Syria, now seem to be in some danger, depending upon how current struggles play out.

The Strategic Studies Institute is pleased to offer this monograph as a contribution to the national security debate on this important subject, as our nation continues to grapple with a variety of problems associated with the future of the Middle East and the ongoing challenge of advancing U.S. interests in a time of Middle East turbulence.

The Middle East is undergoing an era of revolutionary change that is challenging the foreign policies of the United States and virtually all regional states. In this new environment, opportunities and challenges exist for a number of regional and extra-regional states to advance their national interests, while attempting to marginalize those of their rivals. Despite these changes, the Arab Spring and revolutions in countries such as Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya have not altered some of the more fundamental aspects of the Middle East regional situation. One of the most important rivalries defining the strategic landscape of the Middle East is between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The competition be¬tween these two states is long-standing, but it is espe¬cially important now. Political relationships that have endured for decades, such as the one between Iran and Syria, now seem to be in some danger, depending upon how current struggles play out. The stakes in this rivalry can thus become higher in an environment of revolutionary upheaval. In this monograph, Dr. W. Andrew Terrill considers an old rivalry as it transitions into a new environment. Saudi Arabia and Iran have been rivals since at least the 1979 Iranian Islamic Revolution. As Dr. Terrill points out, this competition has taken a variety of forms and was especially intense in the aftermath of the Iranian revolution. Under Iranian President Mohammad Khatami (1997-2005), the ri¬valry relaxed to some extent, but a permanent détente was not possible because of a backlash within the Iranian political system. The successor presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad further damaged relations and the Saudi-Iranian relationship was dealt an espe¬cially serious setback over the Saudi-led intervention into Bahrain. Because the current Saudi-Iranian rival-ry is taking place in a variety of countries of interest to the United States, an awareness of the motivations and issues associated with the rivalry is important to U.S. policymakers. Dr. Terrill clearly identifies the struggle as region-wide, encompassing countries as far apart as Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and especially Iraq, where the United States is preparing to withdraw almost all of its troops. He also notes that while U.S. interests often overlap with those of Saudi Arabia, such is not always the case. Saudi Arabia and the United States often work well together in seeking to contain Iranian influence, but Saudi Arabia also is an absolute monarchy opposed to Arab democracy or any democratic reform of the existing monarchical systems. The Strategic Studies Institute is pleased to offer this monograph as a contribution to the national security debate on this important subject, as our nation continues to grapple with a variety of problems as¬sociated with the future of the Middle East and the ongoing challenge of advancing U.S. interests in a time of Middle East turbulence. This analysis should be especially useful to U.S. strategic leaders and in telligence professionals as they seek to address the complicated interplay of factors related to regional se¬curity issues, the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq, fighting terrorism, and providing for the support of local allies. This work may also benefit those seeking better understanding of long-range issues of Middle Eastern and global security. We hope this work will ivv be of benefit to officers of all services, as well as other U.S. government officials involved in military and security assistance planning.

This volume provides a detailed exploration of the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran across the Middle East. It considers the impact of this rivalry upon regional and domestic politics across the region, highlighting how the rivalry is shaped by the contingencies of time and space.

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