Market Based Interest Rate Reform In China

The market-based interest rate reform remains a core part of China’s financial reforms, and an important topic of both theoretical and policy studies. This book presents a comprehensive analysis of the process and logic of China’s interest rate reform from a historical perspective. It is structured along three lines, i.e. loosening interest rate controls, establishing market-based interest rates, and building an effective interest rate adjustment mechanism, and systematically reviews the characteristics and evolvement of the reform process. The book further explores the lessons and challenges of the reform by examining China’s development stage and auxiliary reforms needed, and offers policy recommendations on how to further push forward the reform.

As editors, first of all, we would like to thank the authors of this volume for their conscientious work that makes this volume possible. Many ideas in this book were first explored at an international symposium on financial market reforms in China, which was organized by the Chinese Economists Society. We would like to express our thanks to the sponsors of the conference: Center for International Business Education and Research, China Reform Foundation, MetLife, Hausman & Shrenger LLP, Lincoln National Insurance Company, City National Bank, Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California and The Chinese Economists Society. The Lincoln Foundation also provided generous support to this project through a grant made to Claremont Graduate University where this book was finalized.

What might interest rate liberalization do to intermediation and the cost of capital in China? China's most binding interest rate control is a ceiling on the deposit rate, although lending rates are also regulated. Through case studies and model-based simulations, we find that liberalization will likely result in higher interest rates, discourage marginal investment, improve the effectiveness of intermediation and monetary transmission, and enhance the financial access of underserved sectors. This can occur without any major disruption. International experience suggests, however, that achieving these benefits without unnecessary instability, requires vigilant supervision, governance, and monetary policy, and a flexible policy toolkit.

China has been moving to a more market oriented financial system, which has implications for the monetary policy environment. The paper investigates the stability of the money demand function (MDF) in light of progress in financial sector reforms that, for example, have resulted in significant financial innovation (so-called shadow banking) and more liberalized interest rates. The analysis of international experience suggests that rapid development of the financial system often leads to structural shifts in the MDF. For example, financial innovation and liberalization alter the sensitivity of money balances to income and the interest rate. For China, we find that the stable long-run relationship between money demand, output, and interest rates that existed between 2002 and 2008 disappears after 2008. This coincides with the period of rapid financial innovation, especially the growth in off-balance sheet and nonbank financial intermediation. The results suggest that usefulness of M2 as an intermediate monetary target has declined with financial innovation and reform. A result that underscores the importance of moving toward increased reliance on more price-based targets such as interest rates.

China has initiated and implemented its economic reforms for over 30 years, however, the comprehensive economic reforms and opening up is still unfolding. The author was a state leader, who has personally engaged in China's economic policy-making process from 1999 to 2008, and is an economist, who has deeply studied and thought over China's financial reform in various aspects. This book summarizes the results of the author's research on China's financial reforms, adopting the fictitious economy theory, in the past 10 years. Financial Reforms and Development in China focuses on the developmental process and main features of the fictitious economy; the essence and the law of the fictitious capital (including credit capital, knowledge capital, social capital, etc.); the relationship between the fictitious economy and the real economy. The book attempts to use the fictitious economy theory to analyze the chaos and self-organization of financial system, financial crisis, inflation and deflation, economic globalization, and knowledge-based economy and society. The book, comprising 12 chapters, covers all the main aspects of China's financial reform and provides readers with a practitioner's reading of China's financial markets, including financial globalization, the financial system and product innovation, financial crisis, financial security, financial regulation, universal banking, capital markets, money market, commercial banks, rural finance, futures markets, foreign exchange markets, financial derivatives, equity markets, insurance and so on. The book is invaluable from the perspectives of its contribution to economic theory, in developing an understanding of the actual workings of China's economic and financial reforms in the past decade, and in forecasting future developments in China's economy and financial markets. It will appeal to academics, undergraduate students, graduate students, professionals, general readers interested in finance, the financial reform and market in China, as well as China's development and the fictitious economy. Contents:Introduction: Finance from the Perspective of Fictitious EconomyFinancial Globalization and China's Financial ReformCauses of Deflation and China's CountermeasuresSystematic Analysis and Proposals for Improvement and Modification of China's Stock MarketStrategic Thinking about the Development of China's Money MarketThe Reform of China's State-Owned Commercial Banks: Objectives and MeasuresSeeking Effective Ways to Develop Chinese Rural FinanceStatus Quo and Prospects of China's Venture Capital IndustryAnalysis and Suggestions on Chinese Housing ReformGlobal Financial Crisis and the Strategy for ChinaThe Reform of RMB Exchange Rate SystemConclusion: Three Directions for China's Financial Reforms Readership: Academics, undergraduate students, graduate students, professionals, general readers interested in China's financial reform, financial market, China's development, fictitions economy. Keywords:China's Financial Reform;Financial System and Product Innovation;Financial Crisis;Financial Security;Financial Regulation;Universal Banking;Capital Markets;Money Market;Commercial Banks;Rural Finance;Futures Markets;Foreign Exchange Markets;Financial Derivatives;Equity Markets;Insurance

China is in the throes of two transitions: from a command economy to a market-based one and from a rural, agricultural society to an urban, industrial one. So far, both transitions have been spectacularly successful. China is the fastest-growing economy in the world, with per capita incomes more than quadrupling since 1978, achieving in two generations what took other countries centuries. Although swift growth and structural change have resolved many problems, they also have created new challenges: employment insecurity, growing inequality, stubborn poverty, mounting environmental pressures, rising costs of food self-sufficiency, and periods of macroeconomic instability stemming from incomplete reforms. Unmet, these challenges could undermine the sustainability of growth, and Chinas promise could fade. China 2020, a seven-volume set, examines China's recent history, where it is today, and the path it should follow during the first two decades of the 21st century. The volume in the set entitled, Clear Water, Blue Skies: Chinas Environment in the New Century explores the relationship between economic growth and the environment. Chapters review the harmful effects of all forms of pollution and discuss ways of securing higher environmental living standards. Particular attention is given to urban areas and the impact of pollution on health conditions.

In 1978, China embarked on a gradual but far-reaching reform of its economic system. This paper focuses on the achievements so far in reforming the financial sector, the legal framework for financial transactions, the payments system, and the monetary policy and foreign exchange system. It also analyzes the tasks ahead to achieve the goals set in these areas for the year 2000.

Exchange and trade system reforms; Monetary policy and financial sector reforms; Fiscal system reforms; Investment system reform; State enterprise reform.