Mathematical And Statistical Estimation Approaches In Epidemiology

Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology compiles t- oretical and practical contributions of experts in the analysis of infectious disease epidemics in a single volume. Recent collections have focused in the analyses and simulation of deterministic and stochastic models whose aim is to identify and rank epidemiological and social mechanisms responsible for disease transmission. The contributions in this volume focus on the connections between models and disease data with emphasis on the application of mathematical and statistical approaches that quantify model and data uncertainty. The book is aimed at public health experts, applied mathematicians and sci- tists in the life and social sciences, particularly graduate or advanced undergraduate students, who are interested not only in building and connecting models to data but also in applying and developing methods that quantify uncertainty in the context of infectious diseases. Chowell and Brauer open this volume with an overview of the classical disease transmission models of Kermack-McKendrick including extensions that account for increased levels of epidemiological heterogeneity. Their theoretical tour is followed by the introduction of a simple methodology for the estimation of, the basic reproduction number,R . The use of this methodology 0 is illustrated, using regional data for 1918–1919 and 1968 in uenza pandemics.

Statistical Estimation of Epidemiological Risk provides coverage of the most important epidemiological indices, and includes recent developments in the field. A useful reference source for biostatisticians and epidemiologists working in disease prevention, as the chapters are self-contained and feature numerous real examples. It has been written at a level suitable for public health professionals with a limited knowledge of statistics. Other key features include: Provides comprehensive coverage of the key epidemiological indices. Includes coverage of various sampling methods, and pointers to where each should be used. Includes up-to-date references and recent developments in the field. Features many real examples, emphasising the practical nature of the book. Each chapter is self-contained, allowing the book to be used as a useful reference source. Includes exercises, enabling use as a course text.

The 18 research articles of this volume discuss the major themes that have emerged from mathematical and statistical research in the epidemiology of HIV. The opening paper reviews important recent contributions. Five sections follow: Statistical Methodology and Forecasting, Infectivity and the HIV, Heterogeneity and HIV Transmission Dynamics, Social Dynamics and AIDS, and The Immune System and The HIV. In each, leading experts in AIDS epidemiology present the recent results. Some address the role of variable infectivity, heterogeneous mixing, and long periods of infectiousness in the dynamics of HIV; others concentrate on parameter estimation and short-term forecasting. The last section looks at the interaction between the HIV and the immune system.

Mathematical epidemiology of infectious diseases usually involves describing the flow of individuals between mutually exclusive infection states. One of the key parameters describing the transition from the susceptible to the infected class is the hazard of infection, often referred to as the force of infection. The force of infection reflects the degree of contact with potential for transmission between infected and susceptible individuals. The mathematical relation between the force of infection and effective contact patterns is generally assumed to be subjected to the mass action principle, which yields the necessary information to estimate the basic reproduction number, another key parameter in infectious disease epidemiology. It is within this context that the Center for Statistics (CenStat, I-Biostat, Hasselt University) and the Centre for the Evaluation of Vaccination and the Centre for Health Economic Research and Modelling Infectious Diseases (CEV, CHERMID, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Institute, University of Antwerp) have collaborated over the past 15 years. This book demonstrates the past and current research activities of these institutes and can be considered to be a milestone in this collaboration. This book is focused on the application of modern statistical methods and models to estimate infectious disease parameters. We want to provide the readers with software guidance, such as R packages, and with data, as far as they can be made publicly available.

Statistical ideas have been integral to the development of epidemiology and continue to provide the tools needed to interpret epidemiological studies. Although epidemiologists do not need a highly mathematical background in statistical theory to conduct and interpret such studies, they do need more than an encyclopedia of "recipes." Statistics for Epidemiology achieves just the right balance between the two approaches, building an intuitive understanding of the methods most important to practitioners and the skills to use them effectively. It develops the techniques for analyzing simple risk factors and disease data, with step-by-step extensions that include the use of binary regression. It covers the logistic regression model in detail and contrasts it with the Cox model for time-to-incidence data. The author uses a few simple case studies to guide readers from elementary analyses to more complex regression modeling. Following these examples through several chapters makes it easy to compare the interpretations that emerge from varying approaches. Written by one of the top biostatisticians in the field, Statistics for Epidemiology stands apart in its focus on interpretation and in the depth of understanding it provides. It lays the groundwork that all public health professionals, epidemiologists, and biostatisticians need to successfully design, conduct, and analyze epidemiological studies.

The contributions by epidemic modeling experts describe how mathematical models and statistical forecasting are created to capture the most important aspects of an emerging epidemic.Readers will discover a broad range of approaches to address questions, such as Can we control Ebola via ring vaccination strategies? How quickly should we detect Ebola cases to ensure epidemic control? What is the likelihood that an Ebola epidemic in West Africa leads to secondary outbreaks in other parts of the world? When does it matter to incorporate the role of disease-induced mortality on epidemic models? What is the role of behavior changes on Ebola dynamics? How can we better understand the control of cholera or Ebola using optimal control theory? How should a population be structured in order to mimic the transmission dynamics of diseases such as chlamydia, Ebola, or cholera? How can we objectively determine the end of an epidemic? How can we use metapopulation models to understand the role of movement restrictions and migration patterns on the spread of infectious diseases? How can we capture the impact of household transmission using compartmental epidemic models? How could behavior-dependent vaccination affect the dynamical outcomes of epidemic models? The derivation and analysis of the mathematical models addressing these questions provides a wide-ranging overview of the new approaches being created to better forecast and mitigate emerging epidemics. This book will be of interest to researchers in the field of mathematical epidemiology, as well as public health workers.

This book provides a systematic introduction to the fundamental methods and techniques and the frontiers of ? along with many new ideas and results on ? infectious disease modeling, parameter estimation and transmission dynamics. It provides complementary approaches, from deterministic to statistical to network modeling; and it seeks viewpoints of the same issues from different angles, from mathematical modeling to statistical analysis to computer simulations and finally to concrete applications.

Epidemiologic studies provide research strategies for investigating public health and scientific questions relating to the factors that cause and prevent ailments in human populations. Statistics in Epidemiology: Methods, Techniques and Applications presents a comprehensive review of the wide range of principles, methods and techniques underlying prospective, retrospective and cross-sectional approaches to epidemiologic studies. Written for epidemiologists and other researchers without extensive backgrounds in statistics, this new book provides a clear and concise description of the statistical tools used in epidemiology. Emphasis is given to the application of these statistical tools, and examples are provided to illustrate direct methods for applying common statistical techniques in order to obtain solutions to problems. Statistics in Epidemiology: Methods, Techniques and Applications goes beyond the elementary material found in basic epidemiology and biostatistics books and provides a detailed account of techniques: