Mathematical Models For Decision Support

It is quite an onerous task to edit the proceedings of a two week long institute with learned contributors from many parts of the world. All the same, the editorial team has found the process of refereeing and reviewing the contributions worthwhile and completing the volume has proven to be a satisfying task. In setting up the institute we had considered models and methods taken from a number of different disciplines. As a result the whole institute - preparing for it, attending it and editing the proceedings - proved to be an intense learning experience for us. Here I speak on behalf of the committee and the editorial team. By the time the institute took place, the papers were delivered and the delegates exchanged their views, the structure of the topics covered and their relative positioning appeared in a different light. In editing the volume I felt compelled to introduce a new structure in grouping the papers. The contents of this volume are organised in eight main sections set out below: 1 . Abstracts. 2. Review Paper. 3. Models with Multiple Criteria and Single or Multiple Decision Makers. 4. Use of Optimisation Models as Decision Support Tools. 5. Role of Information Systems in Decision Making: Database and Model Management Issues. 6. Methods of Artificial Intelligence in Decision Making: Intelligent Knowledge Based Systems. 7. Representation of Uncertainty in Mathematical Models and Knowledge Based Systems. 8. Mathematical Basis for Constructing Models and Model Validation.

This book brings together, in a single volume, the fields of multicriteria decision making and multiobjective optimization that are traditionally covered separately. Both fields have in common the presence of multiple perspectives of looking at and evaluating decisions to be taken but they differ in the number of available alternatives. Multicriteria approaches deal with decision processes where a finite number of alternatives have to be evaluated while, in multiobjective optimization, this number is infinite and the space of alternatives continuous. This book is written for students of applied mathematics, engineering, and economics and management, with no assumed previous knowledge on the subject, as well as for practitioners in industry looking for techniques to support decision making. The mathematical formalism is very low, so that all materials are accessible to most readers. Nonetheless, a rich bibliography allows interested readers to access more technical literature. The textbook is organized in eleven chapters, each corresponding to a class of about two hours. A comprehensive set of examples is presented, allowing for a didactic approach when presenting the methodologies. Each chapter ends with exercises that are designed to develop problem-solving skills and to promote concepts retention.

The complexity of issues requiring rational decision making grows and thus such decisions are becoming more and more difficult, despite advances in methodology and tools for decision support and in other areas of research. Globalization, interlinks between environmental, industrial, social and political issues, and rapid speed of change all contribute to the increase of this complexity. Specialized knowledge about decision-making processes and their support is increasing, but a large spectrum of approaches presented in the literature is typically illustrated only by simple examples. Moreover, the integration of model-based decision support methodologies and tools with specialized model-based knowledge developed for handling real problems in environmental, engineering, industrial, economical, social and political activities is often not satisfactory. Therefore, there is a need to present the state of art of methodology and tools for development of model-based decision support systems, and illustrate this state by applications to various complex real-world decision problems. The monograph reports many years of experience of many researchers, who have not only contributed to the developments in operations research but also succeeded to integrate knowledge and craft of various disciplines into several modern decision support systems which have been applied to actual complex decision-making processes in various fields of policy making. The experience presented in this book will be of value to researchers and practitioners in various fields. The issues discussed in this book gain in importance with the development of the new era of the information society, where information, knowledge, and ways of processing them become a decisive part of human activities. The examples presented in this book illustrate how how various methods and tools of model-based decision support can actually be used for helping modern decision makers that face complex problems. Overview of the contents: The first part of this three-part book presents the methodological background and characteristics of modern decision-making environment, and the value of model-based decision support thus addressing current challenges of decision support. It also provides the methodology of building and analyzing mathematical models that represent underlying physical and economic processes, and that are useful for modern decision makers at various stages of decision making. These methods support not only the analysis of Pareto-efficient solutions that correspond best to decision maker preferences but also allow the use of other modeling concepts like soft constraints, soft simulation, or inverse simulation. The second part describes various types of tools that are used for the development of decision support systems. These include tools for modeling, simulation, optimization, tools supporting choice and user interfaces. The described tools are both standard, commercially available, and nonstandard, public domain or shareware software, which are robust enough to be used also for complex applications. All four environmental applications (regional water quality management, land use planning, cost-effective policies aimed at improving the European air quality, energy planning with environmental implications) presented in the third part of the book rely on many years of cooperation between the authors of the book with several IIASA's projects, and with many researchers from the wide IIASA network of collaborating institutions. All these applications are characterized by an intensive use of model-based decision support. Finally, the appendix contains a short description of some of the tools described in the book that are available from IIASA, free of charge, for research and educational purposes. The experiences reported in this book indicate that the development of DSSs for strategic environmental decision making should be a joint effort involving experts in the subject area, modelers, and decision support experts. For the other experiences discussed in this book, the authors stress the importance of good data bases, and good libraries of tools. One of the most important requirements is a modular structure of a DSS that enhances the reusability of system modules. In such modular structures, user interfaces play an important role. The book shows how modern achievements in mathematical programming and computer sciences may be exploited for supporting decision making, especially about strategic environmental problems. It presents the methodological background of various methods for model-based decision support and reviews methods and tools for model development and analysis. The methods and tools are amply illustrated with extensive applications. Audience: This book will be of interest to researchers and practitioners in the fields of model development and analysis, model-based decision analysis and support, (particularly in the environment, economics, agriculture, engineering, and negotiations areas) and mathematical programming. For understanding of some parts of the text a background in mathematics and operational research is required but several chapters of the book will be of value also for readers without such a background. The monograph is also suitable for use as a text book for courses on advanced (Master and Ph.D.) levels for programs on Operations Research, decision analysis, decision support and various environmental studies (depending on the program different parts of the book may be emphasized).

Decision support systems have experienced a marked increase in attention and importance over the past 25 years. The aim of this book is to survey the decision support system (DSS) field – covering both developed territory and emergent frontiers. It will give the reader a clear understanding of fundamental DSS concepts, methods, technologies, trends, and issues. It will serve as a basic reference work for DSS research, practice, and instruction. To achieve these goals, the book has been designed according to a ten-part structure, divided in two volumes with chapters authored by well-known, well-versed scholars and practitioners from the DSS community.

This volume is devoted to models and methods in multiple objectives decision making. The importance of the multiple dimensions of decision making was first recognised during the 1960s and since then progress has been made in that theoretical or application oriented contributions may now be categorized under two main headings:- Multiattribute Decision Making (MADM) which concerns the sorting, the ranking or the evaluation of objects of choice according to several criteria and Multiobjective Decision Making (MODM) which deals with the vector optimization in mathematical programming. The above are also presented in the context of various applications, namely banking, environment, health, manpower, media, portfolio and traffic control, resulting in a book for a wide variety of readers.

The first book to integrate the decision-making process through mathematical modelling. Using the concept of a decision framework, the ideas of decision making, models, and algorithms are introduced to the reader by way of realistic and entertaining problems. The structure, form, illustrations, problems, and challenges in this book provide a unique presentation of the subject matter.

A methodology for the creation of decision support systems (DSS) from mathematical programming models is examined. This approach is demonstrated using a model for flight scheduling, integrating a formal data model, represented in a database management system (Paradox), and a mathematical programming model, represented in an executable mathematical modeling language (GAMS). The integration is completed by creating a database capable of supporting the GAMS model creating a series of queries to extract the data required by the GAMS model, and finally by modifying the GAMS model to import the external data sets and write the results to a file that can be interpreted by the database. This process is first completed manually to support a specific GAMS model. In the second portion of this thesis, the process is generalized to provide a framework that can be used to design a front-end database for any GAMS model. Benefits of this integrated approach over using a stand alone mathematical model include: The assurance of model integrity, explicit data modeling, improved representation and manipulation of model inputs and outputs, greater integrity of input data, and easier interpretation and multiple views of model outputs.

Mathematical Modeling, Third Edition is a general introduction to an increasingly crucial topic for today's mathematicians. Unlike textbooks focused on one kind of mathematical model, this book covers the broad spectrum of modeling problems, from optimization to dynamical systems to stochastic processes. Mathematical modeling is the link between mathematics and the rest of the world. Meerschaert shows how to refine a question, phrasing it in precise mathematical terms. Then he encourages students to reverse the process, translating the mathematical solution back into a comprehensible, useful answer to the original question. This textbook mirrors the process professionals must follow in solving complex problems. Each chapter in this book is followed by a set of challenging exercises. These exercises require significant effort on the part of the student, as well as a certain amount of creativity. Meerschaert did not invent the problems in this book--they are real problems, not designed to illustrate the use of any particular mathematical technique. Meerschaert's emphasis on principles and general techniques offers students the mathematical background they need to model problems in a wide range of disciplines. Increased support for instructors, including MATLAB material New sections on time series analysis and diffusion models Additional problems with international focus such as whale and dolphin populations, plus updated optimization problems