Mathematical Models In International Relations

Monograph on mathematical analysis and models in international relations - contains 18 contributions dealing with theories of international relations, probability models, simulation and decision making, and presents applications to selected international problems, such a inter-nation alliances, conflict behaviour, arms and OPEC. Graphs and references.

Formal Theories of Politics demonstrates the role of formal mathematical models in political science, and aims to convey a sense of the questions and methods which govern the political science research agenda. While there is still much interest in empirical patterns of voting behaviour and public opinion data, there has been substantial growth in emphasis on mathematical theory as a technique for the derivation of testable hypotheses. Topics discussed include: optimal candidate strategies and equilibria in competitive elections; voting agendas and parliamentary procedure in the multidimensional events; revolution, repression and inequality as outputs of dynamics systems. The mathematical techniques are widely varied, including game theory, functional analysis, differential equations, expert systems, stochastic processes and statistical models.

Physical science and technology (engineering) are fundamentally linked by the possibility of predictions: science tests itself and grows by making and checking predictions; technology relies on predictions and thus furthers the growth of the associated science. The political science of international relations is similarly associated with the “technology” of policy making by governments and elites: the growth of the science is dependent upon its applicability for useful policy making. This book explores the applicability of predictability — based upon dynamical modeling, and the related concepts of chaos and complexity — to the understanding of international relations, with the hope that this will lead to insights into policy making and hence the growth of the science of international relations. Contents:Predictive Structure Building — Static and DynamicPredictive Modeling of Arms Races: Static and DynamicDynamical ConceptsChaos and International Stability — Modeling War InitiationCombined Models: Capabilities and IntentionsPast and Future Research Readership: Political and physical scientists, and others interested in the application of modern physical dynamical ideas, such as chaos and complexity, to the evolution and stability of the international systems. Keywords:Crisis Instability;Chaos;Arms Race;Non-Linear Modeling;Richardson Modeling;Prediction;Policy Making;Static Models;Dynamic Models;War;International Security

Publisher Description

Offers an overview of mathematical modeling concentrating on game theory, statistics and computational modeling.