Model Based Planning For Post Conflict Reconstruction The Case Of Yemen

Evidence-based planning for post-conflict reconstruction is often constrained by missing data and the shortcomings of conventional analytical methods. To overcome these constraints, we use economy-wide modeling methods to model the impact of war and reconstruction possibilities for the economy of Yemen. We first calibrate the model to pre-conflict data (2014) and validate it by replicating the most recent available dynamic needs assessments for Yemen that were elaborated by the World Bank. We then report model scenario results for unobserved development indicators, such as estimates for sector-level growth, employment, and poverty. For the post-conflict period, we use the assumptions of a recent dynamic needs assessment and assume gradual reconstruction of the war-induced damages by the target year 2024. Then we focus on uncertain institutional factors and investigate their importance for the country’s socio-economic development. Finally, we assess the potential structural characteristics of Yemen’s economy in the year 2024 and analyze potential risks and trade-offs associated with government’s institutional performance and the implications these have for the pace of post-conflict reconstruction.

The forces at play in reconstruction operations are a complex system of time phased interlocking cause and effect relationships that are not thoroughly understood. A model capable of capturing the general dynamics involved in post-conflict reconstruction would provide insight to decision makers regarding potential policy alternatives. This research effort demonstrates the viability of using systems dynamics modeling techniques to simulate the establishment of public order and safety in a post-conflict reconstruction operation (Phase IV operations). A high level generic framework is developed that can be used as a general template for modeling post-conflict reconstruction. It is then demonstrated with a notional test case based on the OIF AOR.

Yemen has experienced wrenching changes that have transformed the country in yet unknown ways. The country exploded in a popular revolution against the long-time rule of Ali Abdallah Saleh. While the country appeared to slip toward civil war, Yemeni political elite rallied with international backers to put together a transitional government with a plan to revise the country’s constitution. The transitional government began with a cautious sense of optimism and the prospect of substantial change for the better, but ended in collapse because of a failure to govern. The politics of the street overran an ineffective transitional government that could not address the urgent concerns of Yemeni citizens for security and jobs. Instead, populist leaders exploited people’s dissatisfactions and threw the country into civil war. The Houthi organization covertly allied with its former enemy, Ali Abdallah Saleh, to overthrow the transitional government and declare war on the rest of the country. Saleh seems unable to conceive of life outside of the Presidential Palace and his Houthi allies appear to believe they are destined to rule. Unfortunately, those opposed to Saleh and the Houthi also seem unable to provide effective rule in spite of massive backing from the Gulf States. The incompetence, infighting, and incoherence of the Hadi government bode equally ill for the future of the country. The one hope may be that a new generation of Yemeni leaders emerges to displace the dismal failures of this one. This third edition of Historical Dictionary of Yemen contains a chronology, an introduction, appendixes, and an extensive bibliography. The dictionary section has over 1000 cross-referenced entries on important personalities, politics, economy, foreign relations, religion, and culture. This book is an excellent resource for students, researchers, and anyone wanting to know more about Yemen.

The main focus of this book is to help better understand the multidimensionality and complexity of population displacement and the role that reconstruction and recovery knowledge and practice play in this regard. According to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), the total number of people forcibly displaced due to wars and conflicts, disasters, and climate change worldwide, exceeded 66 million in 2016. Many of these displaced populations may never be able to go back and rebuild their houses, communities, and businesses. This text brings together recovery and reconstruction professionals, researchers, and policy makers to examine how displaced populations can rebuild their lives in new locations and recover from disasters that have impacted their livelihoods, and communities. This book provides readers with an understanding of how disaster recovery and reconstruction knowledge and practice can contribute to the recovery and reconstruction of displaced and refugee populations. This book will appeal to students, researchers, and professionals working in the field.

As a basic human need, the provision of safe water is among the highest priorities of government and humanitarian interventions during post-conflict recovery and peacebuilding. In the aftermath of war, water, sanitation, and infrastructure play a critical role in the recovery of livelihoods and economic development. Moreover, shared waters have great potential for interstate cooperation, assisting to rebuild trust following conflict and to prevent a return to conflict. This volume draws on studies from around the world to create a framework for understanding how water resources decisions and activities can facilitate or undermine peacebuilding in a post-conflict setting.

Clearing landmines, rehabilitating and integrating of excombatants, rebuilding the infrastructure, coordinating aid sources—these are just some of the issues confronting the Bank in post-conflict reconstruction. The explosion of civil conflicts in the post-Cold War world has tested the World Bank's ability to address unprecedented devastation of human and social capital.This study covers post-conflict reconstruction in nine countries, assessing relevant, recent Bank experience. It also presents case-studies for ongoing and future operations, which analyze: 1. the Bank's main strengths or comparative advantages; 2. its partnership with other donors, international organizations, and NGOs; 3. its role in reconstruction strategy and damage and needs assessment; 4. its role in rebuilding the economy and institutions of governance; 5. its management of resources and processes; 6. implications for monitoring and evaluation.

Development assistance to fragile states and conflict-affected areas can be a core component of peacebuilding, providing support for the restoration of government functions, delivery of basic services, the rule of law, and economic revitalization. What has worked, why it has worked, and what is scalable and transferable, are key questions for both development practice and research into how peace is built and the interactive role of domestic and international processes therein. Despite a wealth of research into these questions, significant gaps remain. This volume speaks to these gaps through new analysis of a selected set of well-regarded aid interventions. Drawing on diverse scholarly and policy expertise, eight case study chapters span multiple domains and regions to analyse Afghanistan’s National Solidarity Programme, the Yemen Social Fund for Development, public financial management reform in Sierra Leone, Finn Church Aid’s assistance in Somalia, Liberia’s gender-sensitive police reform, the judicial facilitators programme in Nicaragua, UNICEF’s education projects in Somalia, and World Bank health projects in Timor-Leste. Analysis illustrates the significance of three broad factors in understanding why some aid interventions work better than others: the area of intervention and related degree of engagement with state institutions; local contextual factors such as windows of opportunity and the degree of local support; and programme design and management. This book was originally published as a special issue of the journal International Peacekeeping. The Open Access version of this book, available at https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/e/9781351624572, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license.

The human cost in any conflict is of course the first care in terms of the reduction, if not the elimination of damage. However, the destruction of archaeology and heritage as a consequence of civil and international wars is also of major concern, and the irreversible loss of monuments and sites through conflict has been increasingly discussed and documented in recent years. Post-Conflict Archaeology and Cultural Heritage draws together a series of papers from archaeological and heritage professionals seeking positive, pragmatic and practical ways to deal with conflict-damaged sites. For instance, by showing that conflict-damaged cultural heritage and archaeological sites are a valuable resource rather than an inevitable casualty of war, and suggesting that archaeologists use their skills and knowledge to bring communities together, giving them ownership of, and identification with, their cultural heritage. The book is a mixture of the discussion of problems, suggested planning solutions and case studies for both archaeologists and heritage managers. It will be of interest to heritage professionals, archaeologists and anyone working with post-conflict communities, as well as anthropology, archaeology, and heritage academics and their students at a range of levels.