Model Migration Schedules

This book presents the culmination of our collaborative research, going back over 15 years (Rogers & Little, 1994), and for one of us, even longer (Rogers, 1967, 1973). It addresses a dif?cult, yet necessary, area of demographic research: what to do in data situations characterized by irregular, inadequate, or missing data. A common solution within the demographic community has been what is generally referred to as “indirect estimation”. In our work the focus has been on the indirect estimation of migration, and our use of the term “indirect” follows the description given in the 1983 United Nations manual, which de?ned it as “techniques suited for analysis of incomplete or defective demographic data” (United Nations, 1983, p. 1). We wrote this book with a goal to make it accessible to a reader familiar with introductory statistical modeling, at the level of regression and categorical data an- ysis using log – linear models. It is primarily intended to serve as a reference work for demographers, sociologists, geographers, economists, and regional planners.

This book shows the effectiveness of multiregional demography for studying the spatial dynamics of migration and population redistribution. It examines important questions in demographic analysis and shows how the techniques of multiregional analysis can lead to answers that sometimes contradict conventional wisdom. The book reconsiders conclusions reached in the literature regarding several fundamental common sense demographic questions in migration and population redistribution, including: Is it mostly migration or “aging-in-place” that has been driving Florida’s elderly population growth? Do the elderly return “home” after retirement more than the non-elderly do? Does longer life lead to longer ill-health? Do simple population projection models outperform complex ones? For each demographic question it reconsiders, the book begins with a simple empirical numerical example and with it illustrates how a uniregional specification can bias findings to favor a particular, and possibly incorrect, conclusion. It then goes on to show how a multiregional analysis can better illuminate the dynamics that underlie the observed population totals and lead to a more informed conclusion. Offering insights into the effectiveness of multiregional demography, this book serves as a valuable resource for students and researchers searching for a better way to answer questions in demographic analysis and population dynamics.​

At present there is no unified treatment, drawing together models to allow a consistent and reliable set of migration flows, across countries. This text seeks to do exactly that, potentially improving policies, planning and understanding about migration processes worldwide, via the presentation of migration estimation and modeling techniques. These modeling techniques are explored from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives. The vital concepts such as missing data and collection methods (and their possible harmonization) are discussed in depth, and there are whole chapters dedicated to both modeling asylum flows and forecasts about the future of international migration.

Written by the 2018 Mindel C. Sheps Award winner, this textbook offers a unique method for teaching how to model spatial (multiregional) population dynamics through models of increasing complexity. Each chapter in this programmed workbook starts with a descriptive text, followed by a sequence of exercises focused on particular multiregional models, of increasing complexity, and then ends with the solutions. It extends the current developments in the spatial analysis of social data towards improving our understanding of dynamics and interacting change across multiple populations in space. Frameworks for analyzing such dynamics were first proposed in multiregional demography, over 40 years ago. This book revisits these methods and then illustrates how they may be used to analyze spatial data and study spatial population dynamics. Topics covered include spatial population dynamics, population projections and estimations, spatial and age structure of migration flows and much more. As such this innovative textbook is a great teaching and learning tool for teachers, students as well as individuals who want to study demographic processes across space.

Over the last two decades there have been numerous profound changes in UK society which have had an impact on the scale, geographies, meaning and experiences of internal migration. Providing a critical appraisal of migration scholarship from the perspective of Geography, reviewing theory, substantive foci and method, this book demonstrates how sub-national migration in the UK gives rise to and reflects new patterns of population, housing, economies and cultures. Each chapter is written by a Population Geographer together with a scholar representing another Human Geography sub-discipline thus providing a cross-disciplinary perspective on a specific aspect of migration. Critically reviewing and setting an agenda for internal migration scholarship from a spatial perspective, this book will be of interest to academics and students of Geography and other disciplines concerned with migration, both within the UK and further afield.