Modeling Design And Simulation Of Systems With Uncertainties

To describe the true behavior of most real-world systems with sufficient accuracy, engineers have to overcome difficulties arising from their lack of knowledge about certain parts of a process or from the impossibility of characterizing it with absolute certainty. Depending on the application at hand, uncertainties in modeling and measurements can be represented in different ways. For example, bounded uncertainties can be described by intervals, affine forms or general polynomial enclosures such as Taylor models, whereas stochastic uncertainties can be characterized in the form of a distribution described, for example, by the mean value, the standard deviation and higher-order moments. The goal of this Special Volume on Modeling, Design, and Simulation of Systems with Uncertainties is to cover modern methods for dealing with the challenges presented by imprecise or unavailable information. All contributions tackle the topic from the point of view of control, state and parameter estimation, optimization and simulation. Thematically, this volume can be divided into two parts. In the first we present works highlighting the theoretic background and current research on algorithmic approaches in the field of uncertainty handling, together with their reliable software implementation. The second part is concerned with real-life application scenarios from various areas including but not limited to mechatronics, robotics, and biomedical engineering.

This two-volume set CCIS 751 and CCIS 752 constitutes the proceedings of the 17th Asia Simulation Conference, AsiaSim 2017, held in Malacca, Malaysia, in August/September 2017. The 124 revised full papers presented in this two-volume set were carefully reviewed and selected from 267 submissions. The papers contained in these proceedings address challenging issues in modeling and simulation in various fields such as embedded systems; symbiotic simulation; agent-based simulation; parallel and distributed simulation; high performance computing; biomedical engineering; big data; energy, society and economics; medical processes; simulation language and software; visualization; virtual reality; modeling and Simulation for IoT; machine learning; as well as the fundamentals and applications of computing.

This book focuses on numerical simulation-based design theory and methods in mechanical engineering. The simulation-based design of mechanical equipment involves considerable scientific challenges including extremely complex systems, extreme working conditions, multi-source uncertainties, multi-physics coupling, and large-scale computation. In order to overcome these technical difficulties, this book systematically elaborates upon the advanced design methods, covering high-fidelity simulation modeling, rapid structural analysis, multi-objective design optimization, uncertainty analysis and optimization, which can effectively improve the design accuracy, efficiency, multi-functionality and reliability of complicated mechanical structures. This book is primarily intended for researchers, engineers and postgraduate students in mechanical engineering, especially in mechanical design, numerical simulation and engineering optimization.

This book is a definitive introduction to models of computation for the design of complex, heterogeneous systems. It has a particular focus on cyber-physical systems, which integrate computing, networking, and physical dynamics. The book captures more than twenty years of experience in the Ptolemy Project at UC Berkeley, which pioneered many design, modeling, and simulation techniques that are now in widespread use. All of the methods covered in the book are realized in the open source Ptolemy II modeling framework and are available for experimentation through links provided in the book. The book is suitable for engineers, scientists, researchers, and managers who wish to understand the rich possibilities offered by modern modeling techniques. The goal of the book is to equip the reader with a breadth of experience that will help in understanding the role that such techniques can play in design.

Uncertainty Quantification in Multiscale Materials Modeling provides a complete overview of uncertainty quantification (UQ) in computational materials science. It provides practical tools and methods along with examples of their application to problems in materials modeling. UQ methods are applied to various multiscale models ranging from the nanoscale to macroscale. This book presents a thorough synthesis of the state-of-the-art in UQ methods for materials modeling, including Bayesian inference, surrogate modeling, random fields, interval analysis, and sensitivity analysis, providing insight into the unique characteristics of models framed at each scale, as well as common issues in modeling across scales.

This book provides an overview of state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification (UQ) methodologies and applications, and covers a wide range of current research, future challenges and applications in various domains, such as aerospace and mechanical applications, structure health and seismic hazard, electromagnetic energy (its impact on systems and humans) and global environmental state change. Written by leading international experts from different fields, the book demonstrates the unifying property of UQ theme that can be profitably adopted to solve problems of different domains. The collection in one place of different methodologies for different applications has the great value of stimulating the cross-fertilization and alleviate the language barrier among areas sharing a common background of mathematical modeling for problem solution. The book is designed for researchers, professionals and graduate students interested in quantitatively assessing the effects of uncertainties in their fields of application. The contents build upon the workshop “Uncertainty Modeling for Engineering Applications” (UMEMA 2017), held in Torino, Italy in November 2017.

Modelling has permeated virtually all areas of industrial, environmental, economic, bio-medical or civil engineering: yet the use of models for decision-making raises a number of issues to which this book is dedicated: How uncertain is my model ? Is it truly valuable to support decision-making ? What kind of decision can be truly supported and how can I handle residual uncertainty ? How much refined should the mathematical description be, given the true data limitations ? Could the uncertainty be reduced through more data, increased modeling investment or computational budget ? Should it be reduced now or later ? How robust is the analysis or the computational methods involved ? Should / could those methods be more robust ? Does it make sense to handle uncertainty, risk, lack of knowledge, variability or errors altogether ? How reasonable is the choice of probabilistic modeling for rare events ? How rare are the events to be considered ? How far does it make sense to handle extreme events and elaborate confidence figures ? Can I take advantage of expert / phenomenological knowledge to tighten the probabilistic figures ? Are there connex domains that could provide models or inspiration for my problem ? Written by a leader at the crossroads of industry, academia and engineering, and based on decades of multi-disciplinary field experience, Modelling Under Risk and Uncertainty gives a self-consistent introduction to the methods involved by any type of modeling development acknowledging the inevitable uncertainty and associated risks. It goes beyond the “black-box” view that some analysts, modelers, risk experts or statisticians develop on the underlying phenomenology of the environmental or industrial processes, without valuing enough their physical properties and inner modelling potential nor challenging the practical plausibility of mathematical hypotheses; conversely it is also to attract environmental or engineering modellers to better handle model confidence issues through finer statistical and risk analysis material taking advantage of advanced scientific computing, to face new regulations departing from deterministic design or support robust decision-making. Modelling Under Risk and Uncertainty: Addresses a concern of growing interest for large industries, environmentalists or analysts: robust modeling for decision-making in complex systems. Gives new insights into the peculiar mathematical and computational challenges generated by recent industrial safety or environmental control analysis for rare events. Implements decision theory choices differentiating or aggregating the dimensions of risk/aleatory and epistemic uncertainty through a consistent multi-disciplinary set of statistical estimation, physical modelling, robust computation and risk analysis. Provides an original review of the advanced inverse probabilistic approaches for model identification, calibration or data assimilation, key to digest fast-growing multi-physical data acquisition. Illustrated with one favourite pedagogical example crossing natural risk, engineering and economics, developed throughout the book to facilitate the reading and understanding. Supports Master/PhD-level course as well as advanced tutorials for professional training Analysts and researchers in numerical modeling, applied statistics, scientific computing, reliability, advanced engineering, natural risk or environmental science will benefit from this book.

The dynamics of systems have proven to be very powerful tools in understanding the behavior of different natural phenomena throughout the last two centuries. However, the attributes of natural systems are observed to deviate from their classical states due to the effect of different types of uncertainties. Actually, randomness and impreciseness are the two major sources of uncertainties in natural systems. Randomness is modeled by different stochastic processes and impreciseness could be modeled by fuzzy sets, rough sets, Dempster-Shafer theory, etc.